Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 68°F or higher on February 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xde13868174f12029a4609175391eab5ddd81b3c0d6b79f15b7271e9ac26d5335
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,453
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,872
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,453 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed No | 32c | 797.61$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.86 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 27c | 744.18$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.76 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 68c | 507.76$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.44 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 73c | 400$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 22c | 347.02$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.92 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked Yes | 71c | 341.26$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.5 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked Yes | 75c | 340.22$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.79 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 24c | 249.17$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.31 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 68c | 244.27$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.03 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4279…9f1bbacked No | 38c | 239.34$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.29 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | +9.0wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 76c | 224.28$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.9 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe228…1e29backed No | 12c | 223.6$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.73 | 75 | 30.7%23 W · 52 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 59c | 215.98$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.63 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 71c | 201.66$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.53 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8d…3257backed Yes | 60c | 176$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.5 | 200 | 25%50 W · 150 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked Yes | 77c | 172.37$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.28 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d46…cf8bbacked Yes | 68c | 170$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.4 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…1f70backed No | 16c | 154.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +6.1wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc0…b5f2backed No | 28c | 136.05$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.93 | 133 | 60.9%81 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eec…e587backed Yes | 64c | 135.98$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.91 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1236…78bebacked No | 24c | 133.16$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed No | 24c | 125.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf911…8d8ebacked No | 20c | 125$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 70c | 124.99$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.15 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e2…b1a9backed No | 23c | 124.08$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.65 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 19c | 122.15$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.82 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1248…8db1backed No | 27c | 120$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 10c | 119.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…1c78backed No | 10c | 117.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 153 | 30.7%47 W · 106 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7340…c102backed No | 17c | 113.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb532…8577backed No | 23c | 96.81$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.71 | 191 | 33.5%64 W · 127 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked Yes | 77c | 95$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 29c | 86.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed No | 15c | 78.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8487…a68bbacked No | 32c | 78.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 67c | 69.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5d…3384backed No | 22c | 68.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 282 | 70.2%198 W · 84 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes | 64c | 68$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.46 | 222 | 36.5%81 W · 141 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18ec…a818backed No | 34c | 58.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf32e…7f7bbacked No | 29c | 52.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 22c | 52.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e0…5dd5backed No | 31c | 48.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1720…2e74backed Yes | 74c | 46.39$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1709…a226backed No | 25c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8495…9087backed No | 25c | 42.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x162e…986bbacked No | 25c | 40.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed Yes | 75c | 40.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 179 | 78.8%141 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 78cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf023…6ac7backed No | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f43…a080backed Yes | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 118 | 55.1%65 W · 53 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d4…d382backed Yes | 71c | 38.52$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 67cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77ce…e90bbacked Yes | 75c | 31.8$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 66c | 31.69$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x479e…56cabacked Yes | 64c | 30.15$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd979…4a18backed Yes | 69c | 30.03$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +4.7wins | +0.20per pick | 49cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8cba…9aaebacked Yes | 72c | 27.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1726…d18fbacked Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 75cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed Yes | 52c | 25.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa817…95d7backed Yes | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 72c | 23.05$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb966…84d5backed Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 97 | 78.4%76 W · 21 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78d2…7a2bbacked Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x792f…25bebacked Yes | 71c | 19.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x517e…4fb2backed Yes | 77c | 19.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 90 | 76.7%69 W · 21 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 71cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1c6…882fbacked Yes | 67c | 17.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 76c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d1d…ffeabacked Yes | 73c | 15.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.17 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 68°F or higher on February 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 53°F or below on February 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 56-57°F on February 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 58-59°F on February 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 60-61°F on February 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 62-63°F on February 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 64-65°F on February 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 66-67°F on February 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.