Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on February 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb9440e99cc008c2ad2bc6328ba7cc1118de566ae9da6ac62cefdd388baa0cf72
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,536
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,844
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,536 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf5e0…5dd5backed No | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9065…b9a3backed Yes | 52c | 11,300$5,876 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,424 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8195…145cbacked No | 48c | 11,300$5,424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,424 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +134.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7340…c102backed No | 2c | 875.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07f6…2ed5backed Yes | 50c | 668.63$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.58 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 19c | 594.49$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.77 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde55…dc14backed No | 12c | 384.12$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.89 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +137%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 53c | 330.97$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.69 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 40c | 233.37$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.36 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 16c | 200$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c09…fa55backed No | 52c | 173.95$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.37 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x092c…fa49backed No | 8c | 172.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 6cpaid | +407.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 50c | 165.22$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.61 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a96…b81abacked No | 50c | 163.56$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.78 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 48c | 156.5$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 16c | 150$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed No | 48c | 142.69$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.62 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 47c | 129.54$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.02 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43f2…754cbacked No | 62c | 129.44$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 39c | 104.93$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.51 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…d7c5backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 241 | 49.8%120 W · 121 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef03…1fbfbacked Yes | 72c | 80$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 39c | 77.64$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.47 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 15c | 75.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 53c | 69.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.6 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 61c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 48c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.85 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…1af7backed No | 53c | 56.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 201 | 46.3%93 W · 108 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed Yes | 71c | 56.04$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.04 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c6…c9b8backed No | 38c | 52.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd555…fdbabacked Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 45c | 49.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6d…b4c7backed Yes | 67c | 48.63$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.05 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeccd…d100backed No | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 131 | 22.1%29 W · 102 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f7f…171bbacked No | 53c | 47.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 48c | 46.01$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.93 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43d3…7bcbbacked Yes | 55c | 45.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.56 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac6…b663backed No | 57c | 43.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 53c | 40.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 37c | 40.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.42 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2a86…7717backed Yes | 72c | 39.88$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…d838backed No | 50c | 39.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x095b…6f34backed Yes | 43c | 38.13$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.73 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | +10.7wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x104c…050cbacked No | 63c | 37.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.89 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 39cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 40c | 36.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.08 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07b5…0d88backed Yes | 55c | 36.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff50…b446backed Yes | 60c | 36.38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83b2…fd70backed Yes | 41c | 36.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 49c | 35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95f7…ae50backed No | 57c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.16per pick | 58cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 46c | 34.27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3754…2d4ebacked Yes | 64c | 32.75$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d91…42c3backed Yes | 68c | 30.88$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c8…f330backed Yes | 53c | 30.79$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8e…30b5backed No | 62c | 30.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee7a…b68dbacked Yes | 41c | 29.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.23 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed No | 40c | 28.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x640c…7010backed Yes | 58c | 25.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 53c | 25.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d7…9600backed No | 62c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4998…2f76backed No | 62c | 24.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7cd…043fbacked Yes | 78c | 20.13$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.43 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d4…d382backed Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 67cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ad…b986backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9417…28a3backed No | 56c | 19.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0277…a546backed No | 54c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61ad…5936backed Yes | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on February 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 48°F or higher on February 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 40-41°F on February 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 42-43°F on February 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 44-45°F on February 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.