Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 48°F or higher on February 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x36d13d49f8365607b78f9a17e4b8d21244eef6fbab17914eaa2bdd72ccc0f490
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,645
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,464
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,645 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked No | 75c | 622.64$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.04 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x74d1…9762backed Yes | 3c | 381.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 18c | 359.23$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.45 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 36c | 292.18$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.27 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43d3…7bcbbacked Yes | 58c | 287.69$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.35 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 31c | 240.39$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.43 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 13c | 233.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 217.58$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.82 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf911…8d8ebacked No | 61c | 213.91$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.36 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfca…8d8abacked Yes | 12c | 192.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 29c | 189.14$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.61 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 24c | 184.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.05 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x095b…6f34backed Yes | 26c | 175.62$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.56 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | +10.7wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…1480backed Yes | 42c | 151.25$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.25 | 105 | 18.1%19 W · 86 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 7c | 150$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 31c | 137.64$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 8c | 130$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 24c | 116.68$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.69 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7f…c287backed Yes | 25c | 107.75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.79 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 23c | 104.92$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 16c | 104.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d35…3af0backed No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb5d…3961backed Yes | 23c | 93.93$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 90.7$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1236…78bebacked No | 79c | 77.7$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 16c | 75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5408…6f54backed No | 79c | 69.45$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c6…c9b8backed Yes | 30c | 65.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeccd…d100backed Yes | 26c | 60.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 131 | 22.1%29 W · 102 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 35c | 57.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 19c | 54.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9417…28a3backed No | 79c | 53$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.14 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95f7…ae50backed Yes | 31c | 52.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.16per pick | 58cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 28c | 50.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff50…b446backed Yes | 43c | 48.76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.14 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed No | 79c | 46.81$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07f6…2ed5backed Yes | 43c | 46.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9446…bee3backed No | 64c | 32.92$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61ad…5936backed Yes | 37c | 32.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f7f…171bbacked No | 63c | 31.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff05…7195backed No | 66c | 30.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f43…a080backed No | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 118 | 55.1%65 W · 53 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 55c | 28.87$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed No | 67c | 28.21$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe17b…6f98backed Yes | 46c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8071…8b04backed Yes | 56c | 27.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35d6…af18backed No | 66c | 25.83$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…3309backed No | 66c | 25.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +102.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cd…a0b0backed No | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfba…4814backed No | 72c | 24.2$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 75c | 23.94$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…1af7backed No | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 201 | 46.3%93 W · 108 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03fe…3ea9backed No | 74c | 20.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +81.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked No | 62c | 19.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed No | 70c | 18.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1002…1c0fbacked No | 73c | 17.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7340…c102backed No | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.97 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8495…9087backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 80c | 12.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.58 | 179 | 78.8%141 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 78cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 48°F or higher on February 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 40-41°F on February 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 42-43°F on February 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 44-45°F on February 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on February 15?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.