Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 5°C on February 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe835c2a222ec760a4088c97a0f64137a9dfa0b94df824c6faa871962be82df8f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,545
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,604
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,545 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed Yes | 8c | 2,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 240 | 10%24 W · 216 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 7c | 1,003$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.58 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7726…4aeebacked Yes | 15c | 932.11$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.59 | 112 | 27.7%31 W · 81 L | +12.3wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +175.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x74be…d9dbbacked Yes | 17c | 767.86$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.68 | 94 | 29.8%28 W · 66 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 30c | 647.56$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.45 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c1…8c6bbacked Yes | 9c | 629.98$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.15 | 105 | 31.4%33 W · 72 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 19c | 618.79$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.49 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 32c | 615.44$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.38 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc97…da82backed Yes | 48c | 524.92$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0cf…305ebacked Yes | 39c | 500.1$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.22 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked No | 77c | 452.47$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.17 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 8c | 404.58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.39 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x804d…cf86backed No | 68c | 365.47$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.58 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 42c | 361.06$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.66 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 14c | 316.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.82 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 68c | 307.88$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.83 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc92b…d66ebacked Yes | 12c | 280$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 27cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 18c | 279.81$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.83 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d92…3239backed Yes | 32c | 277.82$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.89 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 28c | 252.56$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.85 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x357d…0897backed Yes | 38c | 249.98$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.99 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec15…3942backed Yes | 31c | 248.03$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.59 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 17c | 244.29$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.26 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 10c | 234.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.93 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70db…afb2backed Yes | 25c | 230$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.36 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 39c | 229.32$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes | 6c | 219.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 242 | 16.9%41 W · 201 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e75…9311backed No | 64c | 210.15$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.1 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 8c | 199.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 191.77$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.26 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed No | 68c | 186.8$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.3 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 29c | 184.4$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.25 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 64c | 179.51$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.24 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes | 35c | 169.44$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.62 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x812a…6197backed Yes | 36c | 141.77$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.16 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef28…2d50backed Yes | 22c | 140$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 126 | 24.6%31 W · 95 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb992…0b22backed Yes | 37c | 130.3$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd09a…a603backed Yes | 36c | 127.93$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.7 | 114 | 36.8%42 W · 72 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa1…3881backed Yes | 35c | 124$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.4 | 51 | 7.8%4 W · 47 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -81%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…1af7backed No | 63c | 118.4$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.43 | 201 | 46.3%93 W · 108 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2bf…5892backed Yes | 26c | 115$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.44 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 28c | 114.66$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.46 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54b0…b4f4backed Yes | 16c | 112.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 68c | 110.82$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.82 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 34c | 109.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 68c | 101$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.46 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe14b…5a48backed Yes | 24c | 97.73$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -4.9wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe062…ab15backed No | 66c | 90.59$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc448…085ebacked Yes | 30c | 89.57$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.89 | 219 | 19.6%43 W · 176 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…3b0ebacked Yes | 27c | 73.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85b5…1948backed Yes | 31c | 71.29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9d…06b0backed Yes | 22c | 62.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 187 | 27.3%51 W · 136 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2bc…a993backed Yes | 32c | 62.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 72c | 59.2$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.69 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 44c | 57.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x95cb…5e6fbacked Yes | 35c | 56.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…30d4backed Yes | 35c | 56.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 139 | 46%64 W · 75 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86eb…76f0backed Yes | 26c | 56.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -77.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…6732backed Yes | 37c | 53.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 71c | 53.78$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed No | 75c | 51.68$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…d7cebacked No | 59c | 50.03$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.35 | 263 | 39.9%105 W · 158 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7e…78b1backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 164 | 65.2%107 W · 57 L | +18.9wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57a2…f9ffbacked No | 61c | 49.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…98a3backed No | 45c | 48.88$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb261…a612backed Yes | 28c | 48.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -9.9wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d4…a31ebacked Yes | 33c | 48.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e6a…7feebacked Yes | 39c | 47.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…8bc2backed No | 68c | 47.57$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -3.6wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x83b2…fd70backed Yes | 32c | 47.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe523…09ddbacked Yes | 36c | 47.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6be2…5180backed Yes | 34c | 47.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7443…357fbacked Yes | 34c | 42.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 48cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaed7…a541backed Yes | 41c | 41.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 73c | 41.49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 179 | 78.8%141 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 78cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfff3…983fbacked No | 74c | 40.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24dd…12afbacked No | 70c | 36.91$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 64c | 35.87$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.97 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x080e…da87backed Yes | 31c | 34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 185 | 34.6%64 W · 121 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f92…7e2abacked Yes | 37c | 32.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3f…af73backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0f…1224backed No | 67c | 29.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd0…5ccdbacked Yes | 45c | 28.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb61d…b3acbacked No | 72c | 27.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 28 | 89.3%25 W · 3 L | +5.7wins | +0.20per pick | 69cpaid | +36%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x69d2…2f75backed Yes | 38c | 27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x944f…83d3backed No | 67c | 26.22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1854…2106backed No | 66c | 24.87$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a87…02c1backed No | 76c | 24.33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e0…5dd5backed No | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2c1…d67cbacked No | 68c | 22.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…1c78backed No | 67c | 22.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 153 | 30.7%47 W · 106 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb83f…6469backed No | 71c | 22.17$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 52c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2557…2525backed No | 71c | 19.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 71c | 17.37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 5°C on February 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 3°C on February 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 4°C on February 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 6°C on February 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C on February 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on February 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C or higher on February 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.