TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 5°C on February 18?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$43,545
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$47,604

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,545 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1fb7…61e9backed Yes8c2,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15024010%24 W · 216 L+0.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-32%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed Yes7c1,003$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.581,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7726…4aeebacked Yes15c932.11$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.5911227.7%31 W · 81 L+12.3wins+0.11per pick17cpaid+175.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x74be…d9dbbacked Yes17c767.86$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.689429.8%28 W · 66 L+7.1wins+0.08per pick22cpaid+0.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes30c647.56$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.451,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8c1…8c6bbacked Yes9c629.98$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.1510531.4%33 W · 72 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-21.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes19c618.79$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.491,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x584e…090fbacked Yes32c615.44$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.3847834.3%164 W · 314 L+22.0wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc97…da82backed Yes48c524.92$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25011646.6%54 W · 62 L-0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0cf…305ebacked Yes39c500.1$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.222339.1%9 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked No77c452.47$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.1731649.7%157 W · 159 L+17.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes8c404.58$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.3995933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x804d…cf86backed No68c365.47$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.587552%39 W · 36 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes42c361.06$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.6627047%127 W · 143 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Yes14c316.99$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.8259021.7%128 W · 462 L-24.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-40.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No68c307.88$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.833,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc92b…d66ebacked Yes12c280$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.16per pick27cpaid-66.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed Yes18c279.81$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.8334319.5%67 W · 276 L+22.4wins+0.07per pick13cpaid+19%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7d92…3239backed Yes32c277.82$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.89520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-68.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes28c252.56$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.851,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x357d…0897backed Yes38c249.98$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.994037.5%15 W · 25 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec15…3942backed Yes31c248.03$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.594032.5%13 W · 27 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes17c244.29$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.2654037.4%202 W · 338 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes10c234.99$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.931,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x70db…afb2backed Yes25c230$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.367737.7%29 W · 48 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x672f…13ccbacked Yes39c229.32$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9033058.8%194 W · 136 L+10.8wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes6c219.98$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.124216.9%41 W · 201 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e75…9311backed No64c210.15$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.12755.6%15 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d77…a694backed No50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1001,16057.3%665 W · 495 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes8c199.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171,8178.1%148 W · 1,669 L-1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes27c191.77$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.2617,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf05b…d0b7backed No68c186.8$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.329642.9%127 W · 169 L+19.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+12.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes29c184.4$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.2512,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x1c78…42e6backed No64c179.51$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.2459742%251 W · 346 L+96.8wins+0.16per pick26cpaid+31.7%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes35c169.44$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.6216036.3%58 W · 102 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x812a…6197backed Yes36c141.77$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.165839.7%23 W · 35 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+33.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef28…2d50backed Yes22c140$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.512624.6%31 W · 95 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+25.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb992…0b22backed Yes37c130.3$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.62333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-34.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd09a…a603backed Yes36c127.93$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.711436.8%42 W · 72 L-6.1wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-13%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaaa1…3881backed Yes35c124$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.4517.8%4 W · 47 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick13cpaid-81%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7cde…1af7backed No63c118.4$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.4320146.3%93 W · 108 L-5.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-24.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc2bf…5892backed Yes26c115$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.447233.3%24 W · 48 L+3.5wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-7.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes28c114.66$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.462,82311.2%316 W · 2,507 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54b0…b4f4backed Yes16c112.73$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.04714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick23cpaid-72.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6372…4a25backed No68c110.82$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.8241070.5%289 W · 121 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes34c109.99$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.833139.6%131 W · 200 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No68c101$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.462,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes18c100$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1828737.6%108 W · 179 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe14b…5a48backed Yes24c97.73$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.45200%0 W · 20 L-4.9wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xe062…ab15backed No66c90.59$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.223636.1%13 W · 23 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc448…085ebacked Yes30c89.57$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.8921919.6%43 W · 176 L-7.3wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x032e…3b0ebacked Yes27c73.51$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.99850%4 W · 4 L+2.0wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+45.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x85b5…1948backed Yes31c71.29$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.198551.8%44 W · 41 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes30c70$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211,86123.8%443 W · 1,418 L+47.9wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd9d…06b0backed Yes22c62.91$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7418727.3%51 W · 136 L+9.1wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+20.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb2bc…a993backed Yes32c62.14$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick35cpaid-49.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x84cb…4b77backed No72c59.2$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.6931868.6%218 W · 100 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf114…6eccbacked Yes44c57.01$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251,09074.2%809 W · 281 L+179.3wins+0.16per pick58cpaid+34.1%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x95cb…5e6fbacked Yes35c56.6$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-17.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc036…30d4backed Yes35c56.35$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2013946%64 W · 75 L-7.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-11.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x86eb…76f0backed Yes26c56.08$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.58248.3%2 W · 22 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick16cpaid-77.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5116…6732backed Yes37c53.87$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203243.8%14 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+26%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No71c53.78$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.668,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a42…8da8backed No75c51.68$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.838840.7%158 W · 230 L-14.9wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-15.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf91d…d7cebacked No59c50.03$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.3526339.9%105 W · 158 L+17.2wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+22.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3a7e…78b1backed No72c50$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.816465.2%107 W · 57 L+18.9wins+0.11per pick54cpaid+27.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9d3e…c49ebacked No45c50$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.51,11065%722 W · 388 L+38.1wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x57a2…f9ffbacked No61c49.96$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.71250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-17.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4bdf…98a3backed No45c48.88$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.888549.4%42 W · 43 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb261…a612backed Yes28c48.61$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6110542.9%45 W · 60 L-9.9wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-33.4%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xe1d4…a31ebacked Yes33c48.56$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8316651.2%85 W · 81 L+10.4wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6e6a…7feebacked Yes39c47.92$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.692236.4%8 W · 14 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7479…8bc2backed No68c47.57$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.322030%6 W · 14 L-3.6wins-0.18per pick48cpaid-56.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x83b2…fd70backed Yes32c47.37$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-12.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe523…09ddbacked Yes36c47.36$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.826647%31 W · 35 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-21.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6be2…5180backed Yes34c47.16$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0620%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7443…357fbacked Yes34c42.89$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.71070%7 W · 3 L+2.2wins+0.22per pick48cpaid+39.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xaed7…a541backed Yes41c41.85$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.16757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+25.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa870…2cd1backed No73c41.49$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.217978.8%141 W · 38 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick78cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfff3…983fbacked No74c40.3$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.31850%9 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+3.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x24dd…12afbacked No70c36.91$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.075846.6%27 W · 31 L+3.9wins+0.07per pick40cpaid-25.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa912…297fbacked No64c35.87$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.9763656.1%357 W · 279 L+1.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x080e…da87backed Yes31c34$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.418534.6%64 W · 121 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f92…7e2abacked Yes37c32.62$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.071145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7112…6d11backed No69c30$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.334970.2%245 W · 104 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick68cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f3f…af73backed Yes36c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.819848%95 W · 103 L+7.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c0f…1224backed No67c29.9$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.911100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7fd0…5ccdbacked Yes45c28.18$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.68540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-37.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb61d…b3acbacked No72c27.66$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.662889.3%25 W · 3 L+5.7wins+0.20per pick69cpaid+36%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x69d2…2f75backed Yes38c27$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.263243.8%14 W · 18 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x944f…83d3backed No67c26.22$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.74955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1854…2106backed No66c24.87$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.46944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a87…02c1backed No76c24.33$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.841100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5e0…5dd5backed No62c24.19$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.192236.4%8 W · 14 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-39.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe2c1…d67cbacked No68c22.77$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.39475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+26.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c00…1c78backed No67c22.38$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.4615330.7%47 W · 106 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb83f…6469backed No71c22.17$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.432065%13 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick65cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No52c22$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.564,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2557…2525backed No71c19.13$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.552100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9da…ed70backed No71c17.37$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.0476371.4%545 W · 218 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.