Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C on February 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa9d547a4b68c09656e8d723c7a9820719ad99aee3abcb512176880ddd82d1d73
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,462
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,062
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,462 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2b28…d021backed Yes | 1c | 6,963$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.2 | 287 | 18.5%53 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed Yes | 5c | 3,326$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.27 | 240 | 10%24 W · 216 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9d…06b0backed Yes | 5c | 2,173$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.88 | 187 | 27.3%51 W · 136 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked Yes | 8c | 1,676$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.51 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 3c | 1,626$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.15 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 6c | 809.53$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.73 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 6c | 748.76$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.45 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 5c | 637.01$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.83 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 5c | 620.71$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.33 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2742…1f7abacked Yes | 3c | 571.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +17.5wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa0cf…305ebacked Yes | 17c | 510.24$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.92 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 17c | 496.04$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.58 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…1480backed Yes | 9c | 458.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.52 | 105 | 18.1%19 W · 86 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 8c | 342.27$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.78 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74be…d9dbbacked Yes | 7c | 340.14$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.74 | 94 | 29.8%28 W · 66 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 11c | 337.28$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 15c | 297.64$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.11 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6371…fc91backed Yes | 14c | 278.01$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.81 | 98 | 36.7%36 W · 62 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes | 4c | 271.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 263 | 39.9%105 W · 158 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc448…085ebacked Yes | 9c | 250.66$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 219 | 19.6%43 W · 176 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5e2…358ebacked Yes | 14c | 239.84$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.53 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1192…634cbacked Yes | 9c | 218.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb992…0b22backed Yes | 18c | 207.24$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 7c | 199.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3f…af73backed Yes | 7c | 183.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab78…fac0backed Yes | 9c | 166.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa888…d805backed Yes | 15c | 166$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e75…9311backed Yes | 16c | 135.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 8c | 134.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 8c | 134.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb78…adbbbacked Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 9c | 124.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9864…b2ebbacked Yes | 17c | 120.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes | 9c | 119.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81fb…a0abbacked Yes | 19c | 102.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x261e…c09fbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 118 | 35.6%42 W · 76 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abb…493abacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 38cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…8bc2backed Yes | 19c | 97.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -3.6wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb881…20a1backed Yes | 15c | 96.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 94.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x357d…0897backed Yes | 13c | 88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 17c | 82.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8231…1736backed Yes | 14c | 78.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe17b…6f98backed Yes | 16c | 70.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 79c | 69.17$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.18 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a2…cb17backed Yes | 24c | 63.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 21c | 61.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9231…b267backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 70c | 21.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 80c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C on February 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 3°C on February 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 4°C on February 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 5°C on February 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 6°C on February 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on February 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C or higher on February 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.