NHL · resolved market
Spread: Oilers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb4fc2098e698da65d29dab17c1102d669444ff76cd3ea6847a9164482e52e76d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bluesof Oilers, Blues
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,038
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,038 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07aa…deb1backed Oilers | 37c | 5,000$1,850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,849.98 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Blues | 61c | 2,390$1,458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$932.1 | 594 | 50.8%302 W · 292 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Oilers | 39c | 2,329$906 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$906.1 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Blues | 63c | 2,296$1,451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$845.43 | 366 | 48.6%178 W · 188 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Oilers | 38c | 1,828$693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$693.09 | 210 | 36.2%76 W · 134 L | -14.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Blues | 62c | 1,477$916 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561.34 | 623 | 46.9%292 W · 331 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…98f5backed Blues | 63c | 1,000$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Oilers | 36c | 501.43$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.51 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Blues | 61c | 487$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.93 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Blues | 63c | 476$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.12 | 538 | 49.4%266 W · 272 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Blues | 54c | 439.47$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.2 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88bd…c088backed Oilers | 37c | 425.36$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.26 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -4.3wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Blues | 65c | 400$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 243 | 46.1%112 W · 131 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Blues | 63c | 350.72$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.77 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Blues | 63c | 317.46$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.46 | 252 | 58.3%147 W · 105 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdecf…caf2backed Oilers | 51c | 308.66$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Oilers | 35c | 285.15$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.8 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…9ae9backed Blues | 64c | 278.08$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.11 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58c6…7ff9backed Oilers | 37c | 271.48$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.66 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -4.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Oilers | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 403 | 40.9%165 W · 238 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Blues | 63c | 251.98$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.98 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Blues | 61c | 250$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.5 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Oilers | 51c | 196.84$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.86 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Oilers | 52c | 187.86$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.91 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…6bd3backed Oilers | 38c | 182.25$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 540 | 49.4%267 W · 273 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5542…01cebacked Blues | 63c | 163.75$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.59 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.22per pick | 59cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…1f45backed Blues | 51c | 144.21$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.01 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Blues | 53c | 139.9$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.17 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84c7…bea7backed Oilers | 49c | 133.16$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.23 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Blues | 63c | 130.66$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.68 | 381 | 47.2%180 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Blues | 63c | 123$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.81 | 177 | 50.8%90 W · 87 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Oilers | 35c | 116.31$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.71 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Blues | 63c | 110$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.7 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…fcc3backed Blues | 65c | 107.69$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.69 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…a018backed Blues | 65c | 105.41$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.41 | 215 | 60.9%131 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc44f…8b04backed Oilers | 38c | 105.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 200 | 46%92 W · 108 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Oilers | 43c | 103.65$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.28 | 295 | 53.6%158 W · 137 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x850b…5493backed Blues | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Oilers | 23c | 92$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Oilers | 36c | 88.37$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.57 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Blues | 63c | 80.95$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.95 | 542 | 60.3%327 W · 215 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2f3…25dfbacked Blues | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 32 | 71.9%23 W · 9 L | +6.5wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x798e…4df3backed Blues | 50c | 67.51$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.88 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e0…5dd5backed Blues | 65c | 61.55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.55 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Blues | 63c | 57$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.09 | 793 | 50.1%397 W · 396 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Blues | 63c | 55.56$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.56 | 401 | 62.1%249 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa283…18dcbacked Blues | 55c | 52.7$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +80.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Oilers | 50c | 52.41$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc9dc…038ebacked Oilers | 36c | 51.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Blues | 61c | 51.41$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 388 | 49.5%192 W · 196 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc516…7f3abacked Oilers | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.57 | 80 | 63.8%51 W · 29 L | +8.4wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Oilers | 46c | 43.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Oilers | 37c | 39.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 607 | 41%249 W · 358 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Oilers | 47c | 36.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 234 | 50%117 W · 117 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd1…da99backed Blues | 56c | 36.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.12 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6f…f414backed Oilers | 36c | 36.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Blues | 63c | 33.33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Blues | 66c | 30.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Oilers | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 657 | 21.9%144 W · 513 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…e58fbacked Blues | 65c | 24.62$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 336 | 60.7%204 W · 132 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf8…0f4dbacked Oilers | 62c | 24.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Blues | 63c | 22.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 365 | 61.9%226 W · 139 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Oilers (-1.5)this page
- Oilers vs. BluesBlues won
- Oilers vs. Blues: O/U 4.5Over won
- Oilers vs. Blues: O/U 5.5Under won
- Oilers vs. Blues: O/U 6.5Under won
- Oilers vs. Blues: O/U 7.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.