Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 54°F or higher on February 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x24f49e94df681d5c8216821e3f6c86097855a5b8df3acbf9c7e90aca7b2f4d96
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,132
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,350
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,132 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x24dd…12afbacked Yes | 67c | 1,684$1,129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555.85 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x916e…2be2backed No | 25c | 822.17$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.44 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 20cpaid | +1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 33c | 491.57$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.22 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 68c | 247.71$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.43 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 60c | 236.92$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.76 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3738…ed32backed No | 33c | 147.12$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.55 | 201 | 44.3%89 W · 112 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf32e…7f7bbacked No | 32c | 146.45$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.33 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc11e…75c8backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 86 | 23.3%20 W · 66 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 50c | 98.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.72 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4755…a87abacked No | 33c | 78.48$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 68c | 76.28$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.41 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 77c | 71$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.68 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79f1…b5a9backed No | 33c | 70.07$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc0…b5f2backed No | 22c | 65.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 133 | 60.9%81 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 27c | 63.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1720…2e74backed Yes | 77c | 50.91$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 50c | 48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 31c | 48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64ef…93f5backed No | 33c | 48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed Yes | 70c | 45.52$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 103 | 52.4%54 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f2c…6e24backed No | 77c | 40.4$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.18 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -10.9wins | -0.32per pick | 56cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 29-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x8495…9087backed No | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe03a…439fbacked No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 189 | 10.6%20 W · 169 L | -87.5wins | -0.46per pick | 57cpaid | -84%equal weight | 5-0.41 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e2…b1a9backed No | 32c | 39.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e0…5dd5backed No | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 68c | 38.22$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c6…c9b8backed Yes | 61c | 38$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 76c | 32.28$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eec…e587backed Yes | 76c | 32.26$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f27…7d0dbacked Yes | 65c | 32.18$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe23b…8d60backed Yes | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e40…224ebacked Yes | 70c | 27.69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 123 | 57.7%71 W · 52 L | -10.9wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked Yes | 78c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…873cbacked Yes | 57c | 23.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c8…dd57backed Yes | 50c | 20.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x326a…2ebfbacked Yes | 80c | 18.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.77 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d4…d382backed Yes | 73c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 67cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes | 76c | 16.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.88 | 222 | 36.5%81 W · 141 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 54°F or higher on February 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 42-43°F on February 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 44-45°F on February 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 46-47°F on February 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 48-49°F on February 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 50-51°F on February 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 52-53°F on February 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.