NHL · resolved market
Red Wings vs. Panthers: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x67d3623a21f4d5f4e98d3c4e13c77ad220106152eb254d510ab4f614bce86d5f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,273
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,273 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0338…04b7backed Over | 54c | 6,960$3,758 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,201.73 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 36c | 6,930$2,495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,435.12 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 47c | 6,682$3,114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,114.09 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa07…2125backed Over | 53c | 5,122$2,715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,407.34 | 1,070 | 49.9%534 W · 536 L | +22.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…d142backed Over | 54c | 3,450$1,863 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,587.21 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…d615backed Under | 46c | 3,000$1,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,380 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Under | 46c | 2,222$1,022 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,022.12 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Under | 47c | 2,000$930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$930 | 623 | 46.9%292 W · 331 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa70b…7a8abacked Under | 48c | 835.37$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Over | 36c | 835$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.35 | 115 | 47%54 W · 61 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 63c | 832.24$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.25 | 629 | 51.2%322 W · 307 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 48c | 503.75$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.92 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 49c | 492.82$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.97 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 46c | 445.86$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.1 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Over | 54c | 372$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.17 | 366 | 48.6%178 W · 188 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4112…5d9dbacked Under | 46c | 336.09$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.87 | 156 | 51.3%80 W · 76 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 47c | 310.78$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.84 | 866 | 49.9%432 W · 434 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 46c | 300$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44d6…9858backed Over | 53c | 189$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.02 | 291 | 46.7%136 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f1…d87bbacked Under | 46c | 165.21$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.65 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefb9…e74fbacked Under | 46c | 149.85$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.57 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 54c | 143$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.83 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 53c | 121.18$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.55 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…110bbacked Under | 24c | 109.33$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 46c | 108.68$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 39c | 82.74$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.19 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84ef…cdd9backed Over | 54c | 74.21$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.21 | 156 | 49.4%77 W · 79 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 66c | 69.38$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.51 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 30c | 65.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 59c | 60.24$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.54 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Over | 36c | 60$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.7 | 913 | 34.1%311 W · 602 L | -27.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 52c | 45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.63 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 54c | 40.2$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.53 | 665 | 52%346 W · 319 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e0…5dd5backed Over | 53c | 37.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.46 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…5f0abacked Under | 55c | 35.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 185 | 57.8%107 W · 78 L | +16.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Under | 49c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 384 | 47.4%182 W · 202 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c16…4b37backed Under | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 218 | 56.4%123 W · 95 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Under | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 598 | 52.3%313 W · 285 L | +34.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc95f…357fbacked Under | 46c | 29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Over | 52c | 24.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Over | 53c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 355 | 53%188 W · 167 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9d…2269backed Under | 66c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 40 | 72.5%29 W · 11 L | +6.7wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Red Wings vs. Panthers: O/U 5.5this page
- Red Wings vs. PanthersPanthers won
- Red Wings vs. Panthers: O/U 4.5Over won
- Red Wings vs. Panthers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Red Wings vs. Panthers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Panthers (-1.5)Red Wings won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.