NHL · resolved market
Spread: Panthers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a63d5a23f5189be8ed6f262d1ffd8c1578466db412d78cff6de5aa8a8b6e134
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Red Wingsof Panthers, Red Wings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,731
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,731 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Panthers | 33c | 3,040$997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$996.84 | 210 | 36.2%76 W · 134 L | -14.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Red Wings | 69c | 1,219$835 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.24 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Panthers | 31c | 1,111$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.41 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Red Wings | 67c | 790.16$529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.34 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Panthers | 31c | 755.2$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.06 | 177 | 50.8%90 W · 87 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Red Wings | 69c | 654$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.74 | 793 | 50.1%397 W · 396 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Red Wings | 67c | 522$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.26 | 831 | 49.5%411 W · 420 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Red Wings | 67c | 500$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 623 | 46.9%292 W · 331 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Red Wings | 66c | 348.19$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.79 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Red Wings | 69c | 279.56$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.52 | 594 | 50.8%302 W · 292 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Red Wings | 67c | 250$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.5 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04eb…f50dbacked Red Wings | 69c | 203.9$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.21 | 266 | 57.9%154 W · 112 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Red Wings | 68c | 201$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.99 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e70…14babacked Panthers | 32c | 198.46$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.51 | 100 | 49%49 W · 51 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Red Wings | 69c | 171.21$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.07 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Red Wings | 70c | 147$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.1 | 169 | 55.6%94 W · 75 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Red Wings | 69c | 116.12$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.12 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4112…5d9dbacked Panthers | 31c | 106.96$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.18 | 156 | 51.3%80 W · 76 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Red Wings | 64c | 96.36$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Panthers | 33c | 80.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.68 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e40…cf85backed Panthers | 33c | 75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Red Wings | 71c | 73.99$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.46 | 314 | 48.7%153 W · 161 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Panthers | 29c | 70.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Panthers | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 913 | 34.1%311 W · 602 L | -27.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…6bd3backed Panthers | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 540 | 49.4%267 W · 273 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b41…01c7backed Red Wings | 61c | 52.2$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.48 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f1…d87bbacked Red Wings | 69c | 45.61$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…ae12backed Red Wings | 69c | 44.91$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.97 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Panthers | 39c | 44.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 272 | 50%136 W · 136 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5767…8cc1backed Panthers | 31c | 41.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Red Wings | 69c | 33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Panthers | 33c | 30.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 470 | 24%113 W · 357 L | -44.6wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Red Wings | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9856…7014backed Red Wings | 69c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…110bbacked Red Wings | 69c | 27.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c75…de96backed Panthers | 46c | 22.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Panthers (-1.5)this page
- Red Wings vs. PanthersPanthers won
- Red Wings vs. Panthers: O/U 4.5Over won
- Red Wings vs. Panthers: O/U 5.5Over won
- Red Wings vs. Panthers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Red Wings vs. Panthers: O/U 7.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.