NHL · resolved market
Spread: Penguins (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x083ab90afd8eeb43ab4f446842a2754ad85553487aae5f41e62e7aa09c05ed09
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bruinsof Penguins, Bruins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,010
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,010 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xada5…db70backed Penguins | 33c | 857$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.6 | 434 | 56%243 W · 191 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Bruins | 67c | 828.64$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.45 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Penguins | 33c | 430$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.9 | 183 | 44.8%82 W · 101 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc964…aca1backed Penguins | 32c | 325.7$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Penguins | 33c | 215$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.95 | 253 | 37.9%96 W · 157 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…a569backed Bruins | 70c | 171.43$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 226 | 55.8%126 W · 100 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9df2…3590backed Bruins | 68c | 162.85$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.11 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbda8…4058backed Bruins | 68c | 162.85$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Bruins | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 252 | 58.3%147 W · 105 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Penguins | 31c | 117.93$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.56 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Bruins | 69c | 115.94$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.94 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…fcc3backed Bruins | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…a018backed Bruins | 70c | 97.14$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.14 | 215 | 60.9%131 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Bruins | 70c | 72.86$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.86 | 542 | 60.3%327 W · 215 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Bruins | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 401 | 62.1%249 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Penguins | 31c | 32.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 451 | 51.2%231 W · 220 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Bruins | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd4c…394abacked Bruins | 70c | 28.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e0…5dd5backed Bruins | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…e58fbacked Bruins | 69c | 23.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 336 | 60.7%204 W · 132 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Bruins | 69c | 20.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 365 | 61.9%226 W · 139 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Penguins (-1.5)this page
- Bruins vs. PenguinsPenguins won
- Bruins vs. Penguins: O/U 4.5Over won
- Bruins vs. Penguins: O/U 5.5Over won
- Bruins vs. Penguins: O/U 6.5Over won
- Bruins vs. Penguins: O/U 7.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.