Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on February 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x11c3410b51a97ead4faf9e3aa5a22b57ac86c0ad53ace85f57d14cc645c2d99d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,100
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,932
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,100 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 67c | 432.27$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.79 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 33c | 431.86$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.95 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 63c | 423.17$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.16 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc956…9168backed Yes | 34c | 349.93$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.09 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 40c | 226.77$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.24 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…238cbacked Yes | 32c | 207.41$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.17 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 39c | 199.87$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.61 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 33c | 151.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.93 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 18c | 142.36$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.61 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…490fbacked Yes | 71c | 140.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c6…c6cebacked No | 59c | 132.66$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.63 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 63cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 9c | 130$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.3 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 36c | 108.02$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.89 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 105.85$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.72 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 32c | 101.37$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.98 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c8…f330backed Yes | 54c | 99.06$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.49 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 60c | 82.84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.07 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…1af7backed No | 68c | 76.26$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.93 | 201 | 46.3%93 W · 108 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x918b…da5dbacked Yes | 25c | 75.88$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.66 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 36c | 71.98$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.33 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb8…f592backed Yes | 34c | 70.65$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.83 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 29c | 67.14$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.71 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 37c | 61.6$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.61 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a28…7f61backed Yes | 73c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 85 | 57.6%49 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed No | 67c | 59.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.76 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 64c | 59.28$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.77 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 61c | 57.75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a1…3529backed Yes | 59c | 57.67$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94e7…c00cbacked Yes | 38c | 57.66$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.66 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b06…978dbacked Yes | 30c | 57.25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.25 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -4.5wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 74c | 54.03$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.98 | 179 | 78.8%141 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 78cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 31c | 52.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.85 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd6…cca4backed Yes | 35c | 51.35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.37 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d46…cf8bbacked Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec4…9c76backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.84 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 41c | 49.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.18 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe17b…6f98backed Yes | 41c | 46$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.14 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa817…95d7backed Yes | 40c | 44.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed Yes | 31c | 43.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.09 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac63…f2fabacked No | 61c | 42.16$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed No | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…4092backed Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f43…a080backed No | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 118 | 55.1%65 W · 53 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 77c | 39.23$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.92 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe33b…6de8backed Yes | 33c | 37.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 39c | 36.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.62 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00d2…fe64backed No | 65c | 36.13$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…c9f4backed Yes | 38c | 35.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3754…2d4ebacked Yes | 36c | 34.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.47 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 63c | 31.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2155…3428backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.9 | 188 | 45.2%85 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb099…df6cbacked Yes | 39c | 29.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 71c | 29.61$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.02 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47d7…a0d9backed Yes | 39c | 28.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x515f…a606backed No | 73c | 27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 175 | 53.1%93 W · 82 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0967…0c60backed No | 46c | 25.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 188 | 60.1%113 W · 75 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce0…eb70backed No | 73c | 25.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 41c | 25.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea4…2bd2backed Yes | 40c | 25.17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0347…af90backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe983…a371backed No | 62c | 24.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e0…5dd5backed No | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x857e…9119backed No | 65c | 23.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 63cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 50c | 22.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x761d…da92backed No | 69c | 21.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 76cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb24…6f60backed No | 63c | 20.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 64c | 18.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 65c | 17.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb9a…fd63backed No | 64c | 15.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 44cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on February 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 69°F or below on February 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 84°F or higher on February 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 70-71°F on February 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 72-73°F on February 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on February 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on February 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on February 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on February 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.