Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on February 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x036f7467eda9c7f170dbb965898f24976ec44a8131bd301b0d2b4e99e977b575
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,519
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,942
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,519 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa4c8…34efbacked Yes | 2c | 1,027$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 17c | 727.69$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.07 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 32c | 200$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec4…9c76backed No | 77c | 170.03$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.61 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 165.13$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.84 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 32c | 136.6$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.06 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94e7…c00cbacked Yes | 13c | 109.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed No | 79c | 99.99$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.38 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff29…f008backed Yes | 12c | 83.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +13.9wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 15c | 82.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 18c | 80.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 70c | 69.63$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.11 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f43…a080backed Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 118 | 55.1%65 W · 53 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe33b…6de8backed Yes | 28c | 55.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00d2…fe64backed No | 63c | 53$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.52 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 38c | 51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 32c | 47.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 46.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 69c | 46.28$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee7a…b68dbacked Yes | 29c | 39.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 29c | 37.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 66c | 36.12$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x916e…2be2backed No | 66c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 20cpaid | +1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e40…224ebacked No | 80c | 31.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 123 | 57.7%71 W · 52 L | -10.9wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c8…f330backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d91…42c3backed Yes | 38c | 28.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4f…728abacked No | 69c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +141.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96cf…41e6backed No | 60c | 24.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…1af7backed No | 57c | 22.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 201 | 46.3%93 W · 108 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb24…6f60backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce0…eb70backed No | 71c | 17.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 70c | 14.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on February 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 69°F or below on February 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 84°F or higher on February 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 70-71°F on February 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 72-73°F on February 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on February 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on February 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on February 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on February 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.