Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 4°C on February 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x39b32289e15e59e752b95efcc149ff6e7562ec9956994071a8a0580a64bce733
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,701
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,383
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,701 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 59c | 1,877$1,105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$771.99 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 24c | 917.29$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$693.89 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 31c | 425.09$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131 | 172 | 43.6%75 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 49c | 261.3$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.73 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 55c | 242.71$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.7 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c09…fa55backed No | 38c | 238.52$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.06 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a3…fa3cbacked Yes | 52c | 195.99$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.13 | 62 | 17.7%11 W · 51 L | -6.7wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2a96…b81abacked No | 50c | 184.53$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.27 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8495…9087backed No | 24c | 182.77$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.95 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 11c | 171.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 17c | 152$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.62 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…873cbacked Yes | 55c | 139.49$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.19 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 38c | 136.37$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.54 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 26c | 131.59$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.69 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa817…95d7backed No | 77c | 118.02$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.43 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 75c | 115.53$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.98 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 45c | 111.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.52 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b75…ed49backed Yes | 41c | 105.39$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.79 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +4.6wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked No | 49c | 102.54$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.45 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2b…36f4backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbae7…80fcbacked No | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.31per pick | 55cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa301…b4efbacked Yes | 78c | 86.41$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.01 | 53 | 60.4%32 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7e…78b1backed Yes | 50c | 83.38$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.3 | 164 | 65.2%107 W · 57 L | +18.9wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe33b…6de8backed Yes | 31c | 74.24$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.9 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf33…7b7cbacked Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 62.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.74 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d1…019abacked Yes | 31c | 60.34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.89 | 255 | 36.9%94 W · 161 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 50c | 53$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb755…4d80backed No | 38c | 52.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x162e…986bbacked No | 54c | 51.87$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.19 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 48c | 50.63$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.13 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a8…ec7dbacked Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x536d…3152backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 120 | 73.3%88 W · 32 L | +9.4wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 45c | 49.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c4…1513backed Yes | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 143 | 38.5%55 W · 88 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 27c | 43.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 51c | 36.69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.98 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00b5…a03abacked Yes | 62c | 36.3$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.91 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f7f…171bbacked No | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd9…2c08backed Yes | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 54c | 34.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked Yes | 56c | 32.58$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.33 | 262 | 65.6%172 W · 90 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84a4…21c4backed No | 50c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.20per pick | 66cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e0…5dd5backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 51c | 29.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0967…0c60backed No | 46c | 25.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 188 | 60.1%113 W · 75 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…1af7backed No | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 201 | 46.3%93 W · 108 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6a…c64ebacked No | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -6.6wins | -0.23per pick | 61cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 50c | 23.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe86…53e3backed Yes | 53c | 22.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd0f…e262backed Yes | 48c | 22.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.54 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -48%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…881ebacked Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1c…75eebacked Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9077…9c3fbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +4.0wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed No | 56c | 19.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bbc…27b8backed Yes | 54c | 19.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa741…d2b0backed No | 53c | 18.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5c…ef7fbacked No | 67c | 14.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 4°C on February 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 0°C on February 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 1°C on February 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 2°C on February 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 3°C on February 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C on February 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on February 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C or higher on February 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.