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NBA · resolved market

Spread: Hornets (-4.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Sunsof Hornets, Suns
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,542,740

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,542,740 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 374 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4924…3782backed Hornets51c547,231$279,087 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279,087.4387451.5%450 W · 424 L+15.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Suns49c490,419$241,454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248,965.0687144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbddf…c684backed Suns49c213,006$104,373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108,633.2772648.3%351 W · 375 L+30.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Hornets52c167,040$86,861 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86,860.781,04651.1%534 W · 512 L-0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked Suns51c115,000$58,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56,350.1440446.8%189 W · 215 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Suns49c110,821$54,103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56,718.634,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Suns49c108,655$53,188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55,467.312,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Hornets49c87,614$42,931 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42,930.9166248.5%321 W · 341 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc65c…ea39backed Suns50c65,000$32,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,499.9817250.6%87 W · 85 L+0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked Suns48c41,667$20,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,666.6427747.7%132 W · 145 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Hornets50c41,473$20,849 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,848.531,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ae8…c2a8backed Hornets51c34,505$17,597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,597.2424053.8%129 W · 111 L+12.5wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf19d…276fbacked Suns48c30,587$14,746 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,841.0623147.6%110 W · 121 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bc0…4429backed Hornets50c30,000$15,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,999.9548343.7%211 W · 272 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cc6…9df6backed Hornets52c23,194$12,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,0002532%8 W · 17 L-5.0wins-0.20per pick52cpaid-37.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xed8f…5aa7backed Hornets51c21,401$10,914 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,914.1217144.4%76 W · 95 L+0.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Hornets50c21,087$10,504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,503.999,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc33a…3da3backed Hornets50c20,000$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,0009741.2%40 W · 57 L0.0wins0.00per pick41cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a8e…5688backed Hornets0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-16.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x48e2…2a5fbacked Hornets51c18,964$9,612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,612.517550.9%89 W · 86 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x351e…de8abacked Hornets50c16,980$8,522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,522.1137747.5%179 W · 198 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Suns50c16,000$8,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,000.041,19448.8%583 W · 611 L-22.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6d3…a655backed Hornets51c15,747$7,987 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,986.52520%1 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.32per pick52cpaid-61.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x65d6…6d6bbacked Hornets51c15,686$8,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,00012844.5%57 W · 71 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xebc0…fa41backed Hornets49c15,236$7,466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,465.6752460.1%315 W · 209 L+35.6wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+32.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfa78…dfd1backed Hornets51c14,429$7,359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,358.57450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Suns49c14,000$6,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,08087750.2%440 W · 437 L-19.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e6e…be00backed Suns50c13,943$6,971 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,971.7945850.4%231 W · 227 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b5e…91acbacked Hornets50c13,880$6,940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,939.8520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbb15…0f02backed Suns48c13,096$6,286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,809.716640.4%67 W · 99 L-14.6wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-18.7%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x4c21…9b8abacked Hornets51c13,069$6,665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,6652740.7%11 W · 16 L-2.4wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-18.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1aa2…30ccbacked Hornets50c12,883$6,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,50038946%179 W · 210 L-13.6wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Suns50c11,000$5,460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,54058449.7%290 W · 294 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Suns50c11,000$5,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,499.9929748.1%143 W · 154 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfdd…444fbacked Hornets50c10,902$5,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,500850%4 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1f3…d99cbacked Hornets50c10,633$5,344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,344.348546.4%225 W · 260 L-14.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc37…2f65backed Hornets51c10,584$5,398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,398.0841649.8%207 W · 209 L+1.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Hornets50c10,008$5,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,001.44,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e12…20e9backed Hornets50c10,000$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00029347.4%139 W · 154 L-5.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf43…ae9abacked Hornets51c9,366$4,776 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,776.4829652.7%156 W · 140 L-8.7wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked Suns49c8,660$4,273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,386.765750.1%329 W · 328 L+10.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x001a…1fb9backed Hornets50c8,559$4,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,279.531643.4%137 W · 179 L-18.0wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Hornets50c8,060$4,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,029.981,21248.3%586 W · 626 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd071…9047backed Hornets51c7,843$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,000922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.8wins-0.31per pick53cpaid-56.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3860…0efcbacked Hornets51c7,838$3,997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,997.4512950.4%65 W · 64 L-0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1ef…8cd6backed Suns49c7,000$3,460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,539.9943348.5%210 W · 223 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e8c…cbf3backed Hornets51c6,863$3,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,5001241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-20%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x70d2…b48ebacked Hornets50c6,202$3,101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,101850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8490…8732backed Suns51c5,919$2,996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,922.591266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+21.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8bee…a369backed Hornets51c5,763$2,939 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,939.258148.1%39 W · 42 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Hornets50c5,654$2,802 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,802.174,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Hornets53c5,615$2,967 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,966.594,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac1a…f708backed Hornets50c5,578$2,789 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,788.819445.4%88 W · 106 L-7.5wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x78bb…591fbacked Hornets50c5,577$2,789 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,788.730446.7%142 W · 162 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d13…92f3backed Hornets50c5,576$2,788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,78870246.4%326 W · 376 L-20.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb19f…dd0ebacked Suns49c5,572$2,743 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,829.787365.8%48 W · 25 L+8.4wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+24%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x05e3…4b87backed Hornets52c5,544$2,883 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,882.8847856.7%271 W · 207 L+11.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x47a6…69e0backed Hornets50c5,400$2,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,70038750.4%195 W · 192 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Suns50c5,289$2,645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,644.751,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Hornets51c5,000$2,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,549.851,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Suns50c5,000$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,500.1469149.1%339 W · 352 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x20d6…3856backed Suns48c4,684$2,249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,435.9339842.5%169 W · 229 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-0.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8cb…8f46backed Suns50c4,601$2,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,301.4214448.6%70 W · 74 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbca…b7b7backed Hornets51c4,564$2,328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,327.6425049.2%123 W · 127 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa7f4…c48fbacked Hornets51c4,510$2,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,3005147.1%24 W · 27 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d1c…a6c5backed Hornets51c4,371$2,229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2295046%23 W · 27 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-9.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c74…4ef0backed Hornets51c4,165$2,124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,12418749.2%92 W · 95 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Suns50c4,000$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,00079549.7%395 W · 400 L-0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked Suns49c4,000$1,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,04024252.5%127 W · 115 L+18.7wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+13.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Suns50c4,000$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,0001,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Hornets51c3,952$2,015 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,015.471,13948.3%550 W · 589 L+3.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3280…ea74backed Suns51c3,922$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,921.769531.6%30 W · 65 L-11.6wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-26.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x605d…cec3backed Hornets52c3,846$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,999.9215450.6%78 W · 76 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Hornets50c3,457$1,720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,720.392,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Suns50c3,216$1,613 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,603.231,19748.9%585 W · 612 L-14.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ed0…a9c5backed Hornets51c3,007$1,533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,533.293941%16 W · 23 L-4.6wins-0.12per pick53cpaid-20.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Suns51c2,941$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,441.4456453.9%304 W · 260 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1748…a816backed Hornets50c2,928$1,464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,463.717344.5%77 W · 96 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Hornets51c2,886$1,472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,471.561,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4440…f8fdbacked Hornets50c2,804$1,402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4029952.5%52 W · 47 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4435…0840backed Suns49c2,761$1,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,400.8226648.5%129 W · 137 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Suns48c2,500$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3001,66752.7%878 W · 789 L+45.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x011c…31dfbacked Suns48c2,352$1,129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,223.0833447.9%160 W · 174 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b46…121dbacked Hornets52c2,323$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20031551.7%163 W · 152 L-1.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Hornets50c2,183$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,099.512,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Suns46c2,026$940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,086.235,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Suns49c2,000$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,02067252.7%354 W · 318 L+15.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x19d8…1691backed Hornets50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00072241.4%299 W · 423 L+2.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a30…8abdbacked Hornets50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00050754.2%275 W · 232 L+13.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c16…0272backed Hornets51c2,000$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,019.9218233%60 W · 122 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-20.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa368…d116backed Hornets50c1,800$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9002839.3%11 W · 17 L-3.0wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-22.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Suns47c1,756$830 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9262,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9553…cfc7backed Suns58c1,568$909 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$659.685250%26 W · 26 L-5.4wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-23%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Hornets50c1,514$757 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$757.181,56247.4%741 W · 821 L-6.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Hornets51c1,500$765 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76582442.2%348 W · 476 L-3.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33c9…6f9abacked Suns51c1,500$765 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$735.18657%49 W · 37 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+11.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x69ca…9ef8backed Hornets51c1,471$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75028554.7%156 W · 129 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid+0.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xbf26…6fe2backed Suns49c1,424$698 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$726.4932450.6%164 W · 160 L-11.7wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-6.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x253d…aa62backed Hornets51c1,368$698 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$697.6858347%274 W · 309 L-12.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x69ff…0d1dbacked Suns49c1,200$588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61233146.2%153 W · 178 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.