Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 74°F or higher on February 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x16c036867a41041beccacb0ffe187cd0d34dcb6ad697b7ec6e06ae00c25f5021
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,809
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,309
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,809 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2138…8a11backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 3c | 1,979$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.01 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6d…b4c7backed Yes | 45c | 847.6$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.24 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 13c | 550.73$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.47 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 19c | 483.19$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.66 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9f…c809backed Yes | 3c | 431.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 80c | 334.59$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.48 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8e26…ca33backed Yes | 5c | 261.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x797b…c1dbbacked Yes | 39c | 252.1$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.81 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed Yes | 33c | 225.83$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 37c | 209$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.58 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 7c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d35…3af0backed No | 69c | 200$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.42 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…d7c5backed No | 68c | 200$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 241 | 49.8%120 W · 121 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 164.96$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.1 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed No | 68c | 151.05$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.27 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 16c | 149.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 27c | 129.97$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.58 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 19c | 127.11$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cc5…af1cbacked Yes | 32c | 119.39$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.68 | 76 | 9.2%7 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes | 37c | 110.82$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.64 | 222 | 36.5%81 W · 141 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 63c | 108$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.8 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 29c | 105.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.47 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 27c | 101.05$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.69 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 172 | 43.6%75 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0be4…2ed6backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 28c | 86.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 58c | 78.44$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.58 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb2…590abacked Yes | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 65c | 70.81$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 26c | 69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed No | 68c | 63.33$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 26c | 59.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f5…029bbacked Yes | 40c | 57.58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked No | 76c | 52.96$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 28c | 50.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed Yes | 42c | 50.21$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3e…cc39backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc448…085ebacked Yes | 35c | 49.51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 219 | 19.6%43 W · 176 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 41c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 74c | 45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87dc…1babbacked No | 68c | 44.03$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf0…10cbbacked No | 61c | 43.33$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x968b…e4c5backed No | 66c | 39.98$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | -10.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe33b…6de8backed Yes | 31c | 37.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebfc…46e8backed No | 68c | 35.71$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 77c | 32.38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…4092backed Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6a…c64ebacked Yes | 37c | 29.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -6.6wins | -0.23per pick | 61cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3e40…224ebacked No | 78c | 25.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 123 | 57.7%71 W · 52 L | -10.9wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…1af7backed No | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 201 | 46.3%93 W · 108 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e0…5dd5backed No | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7340…c102backed No | 63c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 70c | 22.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…e18dbacked No | 61c | 18.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0502…62bbbacked No | 65c | 15.39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7723…c6d8backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 74°F or higher on February 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 62-63°F on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 64-65°F on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 66-67°F on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 68-69°F on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 70-71°F on February 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 72-73°F on February 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.