Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 72-73°F on February 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x87233e2b412c7dd292d3022998bd69faace8cedac6e18593c43d471b5a8a501a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,989
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,172
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,989 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 18c | 1,168$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.35 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 33c | 824.43$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.57 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5a…9321backed Yes | 68c | 271.14$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.54 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 38c | 232.84$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.44 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd43…51b1backed Yes | 4c | 230$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 15cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 6c | 199.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 73c | 196.47$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.3 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 60c | 185.05$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.79 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 43c | 157.01$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.6 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb8…f592backed Yes | 37c | 146.81$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.73 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 13c | 130$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 12c | 130$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 27c | 112.31$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bbe…e620backed Yes | 46c | 109.8$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | -5.5wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x162e…986bbacked Yes | 19c | 99.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 50c | 92.63$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.32 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…4092backed Yes | 42c | 90$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.92 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 60c | 89.1$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.69 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 31c | 88.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.77 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb2…590abacked Yes | 40c | 88$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed Yes | 49c | 84.38$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.35 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 80.37$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0be4…2ed6backed Yes | 30c | 77$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 62c | 75.8$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.73 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked No | 45c | 75.29$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.41 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 26c | 71.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc956…9168backed Yes | 37c | 64.44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 42c | 60.94$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 46c | 60.16$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.62 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed No | 65c | 52.85$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6d…b4c7backed Yes | 63c | 51.15$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.34 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 52c | 50.42$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.12 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc6…1a3ebacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 45c | 49.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.49 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 53c | 49.48$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cbf…7df7backed Yes | 28c | 45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c6…c6cebacked No | 57c | 44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.92 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 63cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0631…eeb3backed Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked No | 38c | 40.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.25 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 63c | 39.58$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebaf…3235backed Yes | 46c | 38.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe33b…6de8backed Yes | 42c | 38.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb261…a612backed Yes | 36c | 38.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -9.9wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 50c | 36.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.25 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d60…d7dfbacked Yes | 42c | 36.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec0c…8589backed Yes | 47c | 34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 103 | 46.6%48 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf382…958bbacked Yes | 36c | 31.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 18 | 88.9%16 W · 2 L | +4.2wins | +0.24per pick | 65cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x95f7…ae50backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.16per pick | 58cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 38c | 29.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…18a2backed Yes | 54c | 29.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 435 | 15.2%66 W · 369 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked No | 76c | 28.62$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b06…978dbacked Yes | 44c | 28.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -4.5wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 60c | 26.12$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.47 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1078…7627backed No | 58c | 26.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 59c | 25.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0347…af90backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0967…0c60backed No | 46c | 24.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 188 | 60.1%113 W · 75 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 61c | 22.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa888…d805backed No | 69c | 21.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cd…a0b0backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aeb…67a6backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…1af7backed No | 70c | 18.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 201 | 46.3%93 W · 108 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 72-73°F on February 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 74°F or higher on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 62-63°F on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 64-65°F on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 66-67°F on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 68-69°F on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 70-71°F on February 16?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.