Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 70-71°F on February 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x09f8cfc1b63764098e89aa4fd67ae81fb2fd62462367984273bcaca915af4245
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,790
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,358
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,790 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 21c | 1,055$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$830.12 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3744…3e65backed No | 2c | 447.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 11cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 57c | 375.5$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.76 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 350.72$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.71 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a75…f655backed Yes | 16c | 302.98$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +525%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…e18dbacked Yes | 18c | 268$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.14 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 15c | 251.04$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.7 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 8c | 200$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0be4…2ed6backed No | 80c | 200$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…649dbacked Yes | 54c | 199.41$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.99 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed Yes | 67c | 130.68$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.95 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…2b4abacked Yes | 16c | 130$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.59 | 149 | 15.4%23 W · 126 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…1af7backed Yes | 15c | 128.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.33 | 201 | 46.3%93 W · 108 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 13c | 122.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.26 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x162e…986bbacked No | 9c | 120$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef03…1fbfbacked Yes | 29c | 109.9$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.92 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 47c | 102.58$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.89 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…1480backed Yes | 15c | 101.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.59 | 105 | 18.1%19 W · 86 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…18a2backed Yes | 15c | 99.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.34 | 435 | 15.2%66 W · 369 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 19c | 92.21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.76 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 49c | 89.35$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.84 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e22…3061backed Yes | 14c | 88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.68 | 385 | 15.6%60 W · 325 L | +15.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e2…b1a9backed Yes | 14c | 85.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.71 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d18…63cabacked Yes | 24c | 84.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.81 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 17c | 69.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.83 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 26c | 69.06$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.21 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 32c | 61.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe17b…6f98backed Yes | 28c | 58.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 24c | 58.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.78 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee7a…b68dbacked Yes | 26c | 38.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.49 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d60…d7dfbacked Yes | 32c | 36.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.72 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x776b…1611backed No | 77c | 32.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 74c | 32.12$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.62 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4e…d839backed Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 227 | 28.6%65 W · 162 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64f3…70c4backed No | 78c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x600c…8bd4backed Yes | 74c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0967…0c60backed No | 73c | 22.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 188 | 60.1%113 W · 75 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x418f…a8f1backed No | 79c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 31 | 80.6%25 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 78cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd21c…8628backed No | 74c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 70-71°F on February 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 74°F or higher on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 62-63°F on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 64-65°F on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 66-67°F on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 68-69°F on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 72-73°F on February 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.