Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on February 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb893a5adeecb25236c56cec5759d614d9c8934b83d3f661abb356f703351d532
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,489
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,792
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,489 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 50c | 397.72$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.8 | 3,139 | 49.6%1,558 W · 1,581 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 41c | 285.33$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.27 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed No | 62c | 160.6$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.6 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc956…9168backed Yes | 47c | 157.6$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe228…1e29backed Yes | 49c | 142.28$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.72 | 75 | 30.7%23 W · 52 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 31c | 139.67$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.98 | 3,939 | 23.2%913 W · 3,026 L | +125.2wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eec…e587backed Yes | 32c | 137.69$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.65 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 11c | 129.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 1,244 | 16.7%208 W · 1,036 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 37c | 109.66$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.07 | 664 | 24.2%161 W · 503 L | -22.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 42c | 106.55$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.6 | 8,337 | 49.2%4,098 W · 4,239 L | +271.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07f6…2ed5backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 38c | 85$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.3 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…1af7backed No | 61c | 75.43$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.76 | 201 | 46.3%93 W · 108 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb8…7471backed No | 67c | 74.96$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.96 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes | 32c | 71.23$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 222 | 36.5%81 W · 141 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 31c | 66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 43c | 62$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.85 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 48c | 61.33$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab24…31c4backed No | 62c | 58.92$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 48c | 54.17$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…a8cdbacked Yes | 42c | 50.03$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 168 | 40.5%68 W · 100 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c8…f330backed Yes | 35c | 44.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed No | 49c | 43.69$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.31 | 1,847 | 27.6%509 W · 1,338 L | +24.4wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 51c | 40.81$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed Yes | 31c | 40.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f7f…171bbacked No | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 29c | 39.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe17b…6f98backed Yes | 38c | 37.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c6…c6cebacked No | 63c | 36.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.69 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 63cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d8c…0977backed Yes | 47c | 34.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 63 | 15.9%10 W · 53 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 60c | 33.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 2,340 | 58.7%1,373 W · 967 L | -4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x326a…2ebfbacked Yes | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 53c | 31.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fde…b480backed Yes | 40c | 30.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…4092backed Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 4,032 | 35.6%1,436 W · 2,596 L | +42.8wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b06…978dbacked Yes | 50c | 29.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -4.5wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 37c | 29.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 50c | 28.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.27 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x776b…1611backed No | 64c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 37c | 27.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0967…0c60backed No | 51c | 25.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.73 | 188 | 60.1%113 W · 75 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e0…5dd5backed No | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked No | 55c | 25.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.57 | 366 | 57.4%210 W · 156 L | +22.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 50c | 25.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 1,184 | 57.4%680 W · 504 L | +24.6wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 51c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 668 | 34.3%229 W · 439 L | +37.7wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe983…a371backed No | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f85…e60fbacked No | 59c | 20.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce0…eb70backed No | 71c | 17.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94ce…f2cfbacked No | 74c | 15.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf1b…9286backed No | 76c | 13.44$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on February 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 71°F or below on February 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 86°F or higher on February 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on February 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on February 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on February 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on February 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on February 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on February 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.