NHL · resolved market
Spread: Lightning (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e37fbad2e63bf26047ead9ab676a1b83b48361d722392a2a237c7f8b1d6fae5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Jetsof Lightning, Jets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,855
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,855 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Jets | 62c | 4,840$3,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,839.19 | 852 | 50.2%428 W · 424 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Lightning | 40c | 3,003$1,214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,213.92 | 434 | 56%243 W · 191 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78ad…45ccbacked Jets | 61c | 2,050$1,249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$801.48 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Lightning | 38c | 1,971$749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$748.85 | 215 | 55.3%119 W · 96 L | +17.3wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Jets | 58c | 1,866$1,082 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$783.73 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…98f5backed Jets | 59c | 1,500$892 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607.49 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Lightning | 42c | 1,087$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.4 | 572 | 38.1%218 W · 354 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Lightning | 39c | 944.04$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.18 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Jets | 58c | 789.08$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.41 | 594 | 50.8%302 W · 292 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfaa…3858backed Lightning | 38c | 657.89$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x226b…cad6backed Lightning | 41c | 594.61$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.79 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Lightning | 38c | 571$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.98 | 1,024 | 48.4%496 W · 528 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1e6…1dc1backed Lightning | 42c | 557.89$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.31 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3920…23e7backed Jets | 59c | 480$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.8 | 396 | 49.5%196 W · 200 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Lightning | 40c | 442.22$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.89 | 1,891 | 52.4%991 W · 900 L | +36.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Lightning | 38c | 359.54$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.63 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Lightning | 42c | 340$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.8 | 183 | 44.8%82 W · 101 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81f3…1f2abacked Lightning | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Jets | 61c | 222.99$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.91 | 317 | 53.3%169 W · 148 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Jets | 58c | 207.8$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.71 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…110bbacked Jets | 61c | 195.13$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.92 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Lightning | 39c | 186$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.68 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0112…4fe9backed Lightning | 39c | 181.96$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.36 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Lightning | 42c | 170$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.4 | 253 | 37.9%96 W · 157 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Lightning | 40c | 150$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Jets | 62c | 129.58$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.58 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Lightning | 40c | 117.49$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.09 | 665 | 52%346 W · 319 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…fcc3backed Jets | 61c | 114.75$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.75 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…a018backed Jets | 61c | 111.48$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.48 | 215 | 60.9%131 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc81a…c368backed Jets | 60c | 103$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.2 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5558…f9c4backed Lightning | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d3…bd58backed Lightning | 38c | 88.29$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.55 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe31…6573backed Lightning | 42c | 86.19$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.2 | 210 | 42.4%89 W · 121 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a25…bb6bbacked Lightning | 42c | 85$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 128 | 44.5%57 W · 71 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b4…8d0bbacked Lightning | 42c | 85$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 140 | 37.9%53 W · 87 L | -13.1wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Jets | 62c | 82.86$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.86 | 542 | 60.3%327 W · 215 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Lightning | 37c | 74.6$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 979 | 55.5%543 W · 436 L | +21.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Lightning | 39c | 71.47$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.87 | 607 | 41%249 W · 358 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Lightning | 38c | 70$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 381 | 47.2%180 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Lightning | 38c | 65.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 145 | 51%74 W · 71 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Jets | 59c | 62.71$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.71 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c96…340fbacked Lightning | 42c | 61.64$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.89 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0642…8c68backed Lightning | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 88 | 50%44 W · 44 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Lightning | 38c | 48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 793 | 50.1%397 W · 396 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Jets | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 401 | 62.1%249 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Lightning | 40c | 46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Jets | 80c | 39.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Lightning | 38c | 39.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 565 | 53.6%303 W · 262 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5aa…4464backed Lightning | 40c | 35.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 97 | 57.7%56 W · 41 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Lightning | 38c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Jets | 61c | 34.43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.43 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e0…5dd5backed Jets | 60c | 33.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1243…2a64backed Jets | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Jets | 63c | 22.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 365 | 61.9%226 W · 139 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4c13backed Jets | 59c | 19.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7e…1a39backed Jets | 61c | 19.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Jets | 79c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.79 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)this page
- Lightning vs. JetsJets won
- Lightning vs. Jets: O/U 4.5Over won
- Lightning vs. Jets: O/U 5.5Under won
- Lightning vs. Jets: O/U 6.5Under won
- Lightning vs. Jets: O/U 7.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.