NHL · resolved market
Lightning vs. Jets: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb8d2a404fe566a40e9336eb12eb7a0508c6e3fc4e258779e0269372099526663
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,325
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,325 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x44d6…9858backed Under | 46c | 4,000$1,840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,159.98 | 291 | 46.7%136 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Over | 54c | 2,682$1,448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,448.18 | 434 | 56%243 W · 191 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa07…2125backed Over | 53c | 2,400$1,272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,271.93 | 1,070 | 49.9%534 W · 536 L | +22.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe19a…abafbacked Under | 47c | 1,280$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$678.4 | 130 | 53.8%70 W · 60 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 73c | 1,238$904 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.01 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Over | 27c | 1,111$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.97 | 118 | 33.1%39 W · 79 L | -9.9wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 74c | 883.62$654 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.74 | 629 | 51.2%322 W · 307 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 26c | 770.35$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.29 | 895 | 47%421 W · 474 L | -18.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 68c | 600$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc519…348abacked Over | 46c | 417$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.4 | 153 | 54.9%84 W · 69 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 29c | 374.25$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.55 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 60c | 348.71$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.41 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 47c | 339.01$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.89 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94a1…2075backed Over | 54c | 250$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc8c…d58cbacked Over | 55c | 227.27$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.31per pick | 45cpaid | -72%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…110bbacked Over | 27c | 226.93$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.29 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 190 | 33.7%64 W · 126 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Over | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 252 | 58.3%147 W · 105 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Under | 49c | 177.28$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.41 | 215 | 55.3%119 W · 96 L | +17.3wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfa…faa4backed Under | 60c | 171.16$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.46 | 88 | 46.6%41 W · 47 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Under | 46c | 160$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.4 | 599 | 50.4%302 W · 297 L | +20.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5562…3b41backed Over | 54c | 155$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Over | 46c | 137$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.41 | 345 | 38.6%133 W · 212 L | -15.3wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3036…15c2backed Over | 54c | 120.37$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 416 | 50.7%211 W · 205 L | +15.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 54c | 112.14$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.56 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 54c | 108$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.32 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Under | 46c | 89$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.06 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed Under | 47c | 89$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.17 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6912…2aabbacked Under | 47c | 76.6$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +10.0wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5558…f9c4backed Over | 54c | 70$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 77c | 57.31$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Over | 46c | 55.93$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.72 | 234 | 50%117 W · 117 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cf…8a4fbacked Under | 74c | 54.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 141 | 57.4%81 W · 60 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 78c | 45.98$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0f…48fdbacked Under | 47c | 44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.32 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -6.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 46c | 43.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.66 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 46c | 25.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.57 | 451 | 51.2%231 W · 220 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71b1…ac2cbacked Over | 54c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 46c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 665 | 52%346 W · 319 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 54c | 24.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 425 | 58.6%249 W · 176 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Under | 46c | 21.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 147 | 43.5%64 W · 83 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lightning vs. Jets: O/U 5.5this page
- Lightning vs. JetsJets won
- Lightning vs. Jets: O/U 4.5Over won
- Lightning vs. Jets: O/U 6.5Under won
- Lightning vs. Jets: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)Jets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.