NHL · resolved market
Lightning vs. Jets: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4611573d2d8b390b206f70055c9151eab4bc0a41cc8afbeb864adef9f47d7b98
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,748
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,748 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 50c | 4,079$2,036 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,042.84 | 629 | 51.2%322 W · 307 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x683a…274ebacked Over | 40c | 3,350$1,348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,002 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x226b…cad6backed Under | 55c | 2,249$1,241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,240.52 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…d953backed Under | 5c | 1,600$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 445 | 51.2%228 W · 217 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 59c | 1,468$870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$870.41 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 47c | 1,243$583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$659.42 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 61c | 836.8$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.52 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Under | 51c | 659.09$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.84 | 215 | 55.3%119 W · 96 L | +17.3wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 11c | 418.9$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.02 | 318 | 28.3%90 W · 228 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa924…b1b9backed Under | 9c | 413.64$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 337 | 35%118 W · 219 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Under | 16c | 296.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.52 | 118 | 33.1%39 W · 79 L | -9.9wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc519…348abacked Over | 52c | 255$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.6 | 153 | 54.9%84 W · 69 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Over | 51c | 214.91$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.21 | 604 | 49.2%297 W · 307 L | -17.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfa…faa4backed Under | 70c | 142.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 88 | 46.6%41 W · 47 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed Under | 59c | 92$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.36 | 153 | 68%104 W · 49 L | +11.6wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 24c | 78.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2249…3005backed Over | 76c | 63.16$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.16 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 74c | 56.12$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93e3…e590backed Under | 51c | 53.76$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.42 | 112 | 33.9%38 W · 74 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xab2c…bba5backed Over | 49c | 53.76$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.42 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 38c | 40.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.29 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 780 | 38.5%300 W · 480 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Over | 46c | 37.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.22 | 266 | 57.1%152 W · 114 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe825…39b7backed Under | 43c | 30.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29aa…e4eabacked Under | 43c | 30.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Over | 75c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 204 | 47.1%96 W · 108 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Over | 76c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 434 | 56%243 W · 191 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43e7…80d0backed Under | 51c | 21.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -4.2wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6436…aa37backed Under | 53c | 20.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 123 | 35.8%44 W · 79 L | -14.9wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4861…4fcabacked Under | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 227 | 59.5%135 W · 92 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lightning vs. Jets: O/U 4.5this page
- Lightning vs. JetsJets won
- Lightning vs. Jets: O/U 5.5Under won
- Lightning vs. Jets: O/U 6.5Under won
- Lightning vs. Jets: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)Jets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.