Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 64°F or higher on February 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x83c8010df984315ea4e2916ef7c04c7b3ea83631af21fdded0770598aaf7f2db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,688
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,688
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,688 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1236…78bebacked No | 8c | 1,025$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.78 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 22c | 304.23$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.96 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed No | 13c | 295.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.72 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeccd…d100backed No | 19c | 247.19$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.17 | 131 | 22.1%29 W · 102 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 20c | 212.98$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.16 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 7c | 196.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18ec…a818backed No | 8c | 176.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 12c | 158.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c1…28e3backed No | 10c | 108$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb44c…3e83backed No | 15c | 107.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e0…5dd5backed No | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 10c | 104.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…1af7backed No | 18c | 103.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 201 | 46.3%93 W · 108 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 79c | 101.07$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.07 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0645…c08ebacked Yes | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeccd…d68abacked No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x120c…de85backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49fa…8c34backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9673…6220backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x104c…050cbacked No | 12c | 97.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 39cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 14c | 77.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe33b…6de8backed No | 19c | 65.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ad…0614backed No | 24c | 54.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x701c…6e40backed No | 21c | 52.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 30c | 46.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e5…86f4backed Yes | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 75c | 37.96$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 79c | 32.3$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.78 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 80c | 28.74$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x517e…4fb2backed Yes | 79c | 24.36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.03 | 90 | 76.7%69 W · 21 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 71cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed Yes | 78c | 24.15$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb5d…3961backed Yes | 66c | 16.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 64°F or higher on February 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 49°F or below on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 52-53°F on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 56-57°F on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 58-59°F on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 60-61°F on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 62-63°F on February 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.