TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Astralis vs FUT Esports - Map 4 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
FUT Esportsof Astralis, FUT Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$416,986
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$466,765

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $416,986 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 317 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd20f…2f35backed Astralis43c73,134$31,473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31,473.368750.6%44 W · 43 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-18.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2cad…eb66backed FUT Esports73c67,998$49,406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,591.6612571.2%89 W · 36 L+11.9wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+10.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcd36…a8acbacked FUT Esports62c45,556$28,284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,271.62965.5%19 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Astralis41c45,555$18,678 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,677.5322049.1%108 W · 112 L+0.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked FUT Esports58c29,999$17,399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,599.5976058%441 W · 319 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-1.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x18bb…e5cdbacked Astralis41c26,618$10,978 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,977.6530726.4%81 W · 226 L+8.8wins+0.03per pick24cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc350…3669backed FUT Esports77c20,744$16,016 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,728.2711655.2%64 W · 52 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0dcf…c556backed Astralis41c17,701$7,248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,247.8123839.9%95 W · 143 L-11.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-13.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3833…33d1backed Astralis42c16,834$7,055 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,054.6121048.1%101 W · 109 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x410d…d831backed Astralis29c14,828$4,312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,311.633930.8%12 W · 27 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa88…85a5backed FUT Esports57c11,006$6,243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,762.5123243.5%101 W · 131 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked FUT Esports66c8,905$5,915 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,990.262,32851.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L+92.3wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x52ec…a6f3backed Astralis40c8,686$3,474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,474.4546949.7%233 W · 236 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x70c1…dba0backed FUT Esports57c6,903$3,935 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,968.2316152.8%85 W · 76 L+10.5wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+14.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed Astralis42c6,833$2,888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,887.7675450.5%381 W · 373 L+17.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b39…3234backed FUT Esports59c5,500$3,245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,254.9631345%141 W · 172 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e59…beeebacked Astralis43c5,035$2,159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,158.51353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8cbf…0eb4backed FUT Esports58c5,000$2,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,10037157.7%214 W · 157 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf94f…9adabacked FUT Esports59c4,692$2,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,942.455267.3%35 W · 17 L+3.6wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+5.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed Astralis29c4,521$1,326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,326.1432425.3%82 W · 242 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid+10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Astralis2c4,177$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.5457322.3%128 W · 445 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc19e…c764backed FUT Esports59c4,082$2,406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,676.112751.9%14 W · 13 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick44cpaid-0.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe94c…1edebacked Astralis43c3,698$1,579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,579.1710252%53 W · 49 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f9…bb8fbacked FUT Esports60c3,650$2,191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,459.0810138.6%39 W · 62 L-6.6wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-7.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3993…cdedbacked Astralis46c3,500$1,610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,61083652.5%439 W · 397 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ec6…a2f1backed FUT Esports54c3,403$1,838 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,565.56650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked FUT Esports60c3,318$1,991 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,327.3625555.3%141 W · 114 L+1.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa6c…a9b3backed FUT Esports60c3,230$1,935 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,294.541,16354.3%631 W · 532 L-38.8wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f93…bffabacked FUT Esports59c3,221$1,903 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,317.378963.8%503 W · 286 L-2.5wins0.00per pick64cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed FUT Esports73c3,186$2,340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$846.566,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed FUT Esports68c3,171$2,149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,022.0450054.4%272 W · 228 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf5e…4189backed FUT Esports57c3,000$1,710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,29033452.1%174 W · 160 L+10.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe02…be9dbacked FUT Esports58c2,943$1,707 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,235.9331253.5%167 W · 145 L+14.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+13.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f14…1e77backed Astralis1c2,869$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.511166.7%74 W · 37 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+3.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked FUT Esports70c2,766$1,935 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$830.861,39848.4%676 W · 722 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e86…fce6backed FUT Esports59c2,658$1,568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,089.942425%6 W · 18 L-4.1wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-44.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1e85…3015backed FUT Esports60c2,578$1,559 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,018.958563.5%54 W · 31 L+9.2wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+35%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0b2b…6813backed FUT Esports61c2,423$1,486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$937.392254.5%12 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed FUT Esports60c2,254$1,352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$901.5157358.8%337 W · 236 L+16.1wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb19f…dd0ebacked Astralis43c2,246$966 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$965.84944.9%22 W · 27 L-4.5wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-22.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked Astralis42c2,215$930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$930.1298052.4%514 W · 466 L+26.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe41f…d9dcbacked FUT Esports59c2,139$1,262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$877.165650.3%330 W · 326 L-15.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd54…b245backed Astralis40c2,084$834 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$833.677256.9%41 W · 31 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+5.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c50…89b6backed FUT Esports59c1,955$1,156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$798.3718061.7%111 W · 69 L+5.6wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c2d…dd1ebacked FUT Esports60c1,952$1,172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$780.2639970.7%282 W · 117 L+38.7wins+0.10per pick61cpaid+14.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9e04…28a9backed FUT Esports56c1,927$1,079 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$847.8136645.4%166 W · 200 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed Astralis42c1,768$742 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$742.4264552.9%341 W · 304 L+27.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3bae…885abacked FUT Esports59c1,750$1,033 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$717.527658%160 W · 116 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6f2…b422backed FUT Esports58c1,681$975 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$705.8912451.6%64 W · 60 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed FUT Esports63c1,660$1,048 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$612.364,03848.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L-23.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd64d…bcfebacked FUT Esports57c1,645$939 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$705.73560%21 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked FUT Esports59c1,630$959 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$671.663,09648.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L+135.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf171…85febacked FUT Esports60c1,627$976 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$650.677350.7%37 W · 36 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+11.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ec…7307backed FUT Esports61c1,582$965 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$617.0513267.4%89 W · 43 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x255f…cd91backed FUT Esports54c1,555$832 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$723.218947.2%42 W · 47 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa97f…a818backed Astralis39c1,500$585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58514847.3%70 W · 78 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9ca…6a8bbacked FUT Esports59c1,405$829 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$576.1575245.5%342 W · 410 L-21.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1a4f…9b0cbacked Astralis41c1,405$573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572.518351.8%43 W · 40 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-9.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6551…e043backed Astralis42c1,401$589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$588.623158.1%18 W · 13 L+2.8wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed FUT Esports71c1,356$961 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$395.5987047.9%417 W · 453 L+15.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed FUT Esports59c1,345$795 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$549.642,62630.9%812 W · 1,814 L-105.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0c63…3cbbbacked FUT Esports67c1,316$883 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$432.8346165.5%302 W · 159 L+0.4wins0.00per pick65cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe33d…9512backed FUT Esports75c1,312$978 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.222250%11 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-21.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c14…d8fbbacked FUT Esports60c1,296$781 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$515.5417357.2%99 W · 74 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12d9…01bbbacked Astralis13c1,257$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.2861228.9%177 W · 435 L-9.2wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed FUT Esports59c1,252$739 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$513.2537646.3%174 W · 202 L-17.2wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-9.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c93…33d5backed Astralis33c1,246$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411.0448437.6%182 W · 302 L+13.7wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+42%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb53a…e694backed Astralis15c1,229$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.2713238.6%51 W · 81 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd4ac…5e19backed FUT Esports64c1,224$783 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$440.7421460.3%129 W · 85 L+6.4wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked FUT Esports72c1,220$876 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$343.891,25646.7%587 W · 669 L+17.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed FUT Esports57c1,200$684 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$515.9946749.7%232 W · 235 L-12.4wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9635…ae57backed Astralis16c1,198$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.6250%0 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe2be…02f3backed Astralis44c1,147$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504.37250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+56.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f03…77dcbacked Astralis33c1,074$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.031127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.15per pick43cpaid-38.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8aa6…83f9backed Astralis41c1,000$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41018442.9%79 W · 105 L-6.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3ae1…befbbacked Astralis48c1,000$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48040950.6%207 W · 202 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x041b…d3ebbacked FUT Esports58c967.18$566 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401.6331451.6%162 W · 152 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Astralis43c966.77$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$415.7178639.4%310 W · 476 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5eab…d552backed FUT Esports49c903.44$443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$460.7518624.2%45 W · 141 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-30.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5674…8b14backed Astralis43c857.99$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368.9436742.8%157 W · 210 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked FUT Esports59c833.43$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.9764852%337 W · 311 L+10.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ce5…9e1bbacked FUT Esports59c809.58$478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331.934431.8%14 W · 30 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-17.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b14…039bbacked FUT Esports61c801.7$487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.3211871.2%84 W · 34 L+10.2wins+0.09per pick63cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1c5e…269bbacked FUT Esports59c777.01$458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$318.5842050%210 W · 210 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xce7a…fef0backed Astralis5c751.71$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.4314135.5%50 W · 91 L-6.7wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-16.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6277…5a3fbacked Astralis40c737.94$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.4763541.9%266 W · 369 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcef4…22e0backed FUT Esports58c737.31$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.347972.2%57 W · 22 L+5.2wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+11.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed FUT Esports58c700$404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.560848%292 W · 316 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Astralis13c699.98$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$911,27821.9%280 W · 998 L-24.3wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-16.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x847e…3c43backed FUT Esports63c699.38$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.3329052.4%152 W · 138 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6c64…89babacked FUT Esports76c690.72$522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.1734542.3%146 W · 199 L-8.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ad3…faa6backed Astralis46c686.07$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.876765.7%44 W · 23 L+12.1wins+0.18per pick48cpaid+36.6%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x1c1b…de56backed Astralis43c675.21$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.3410442.3%44 W · 60 L-0.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2bfe…1220backed FUT Esports58c672.28$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.369266.3%61 W · 31 L+6.7wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+11.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8ca2…5d25backed FUT Esports55c645.24$352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.1217759.9%106 W · 71 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad72…4f5ebacked Astralis39c640.6$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.724538.4%94 W · 151 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51c7…98aabacked FUT Esports61c637.94$391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.2425261.5%155 W · 97 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f7e…366ebacked Astralis44c625.02$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.21850%9 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x86af…f384backed Astralis40c604.87$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.989764.9%63 W · 34 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Astralis42c599.99$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.3681244.3%360 W · 452 L-0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.