CS2 · resolved market
Games Total: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc32685f00c20b2d8ebf9913f6f9035d5afa1520e234fca222b1b6eb2f6f0eab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,762
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,464
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,762 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Over | 37c | 1,096$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.4 | 573 | 22.3%128 W · 445 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 25c | 865.03$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.5 | 3,257 | 50.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L | +98.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Over | 39c | 645.71$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.37 | 812 | 44.3%360 W · 452 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3488…54c2backed Under | 62c | 551.65$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.63 | 148 | 56.1%83 W · 65 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd4…5faabacked Over | 42c | 459.62$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.04 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -4.3wins | -0.25per pick | 49cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5471…a236backed Under | 63c | 443.77$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.6 | 250 | 42.8%107 W · 143 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd154…9c74backed Under | 61c | 397.08$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.73 | 640 | 46.3%296 W · 344 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3920…a26dbacked Under | 79c | 306.03$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d2…2381backed Over | 37c | 258.81$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.23 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +5.3wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5887…994ebacked Under | 61c | 256.92$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.42 | 109 | 50.5%55 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Under | 73c | 245.43$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.53 | 2,328 | 51.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L | +92.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x675c…4341backed Under | 61c | 238.74$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.21 | 187 | 48.1%90 W · 97 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 78c | 218.96$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.39 | 3,096 | 48.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L | +135.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa76e…dcb6backed Under | 63c | 217.59$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.68 | 1,310 | 53.7%703 W · 607 L | +32.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3435…1913backed Over | 40c | 198.36$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.94 | 99 | 54.5%54 W · 45 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x642c…21a7backed Over | 41c | 185.34$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.94 | 202 | 51%103 W · 99 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Under | 59c | 154.48$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.34 | 202 | 38.6%78 W · 124 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Under | 59c | 139.14$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.68 | 5,287 | 31.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L | -383.3wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Under | 61c | 100.59$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.23 | 882 | 42.3%373 W · 509 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1512…68f3backed Over | 40c | 88.87$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.55 | 291 | 53.6%156 W · 135 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x091a…db09backed Over | 39c | 74.11$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -26%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 63c | 73.42$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.4 | 388 | 48.5%188 W · 200 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cf3…1eabbacked Over | 38c | 70$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -11.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x000d…05f8backed Over | 35c | 67.27$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f9e…10c8backed Under | 62c | 50.82$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.31 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4e5…d034backed Under | 62c | 48.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 130 | 44.6%58 W · 72 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58c…56e3backed Under | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 338 | 69.8%236 W · 102 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b74…1e21backed Under | 63c | 23.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Games Total: O/U 4.5this page
- Counter-Strike: Astralis vs FUT Esports (BO5) - PGL Bucharest PlayoffsFUT Esports won
- Counter-Strike: Astralis vs FUT Esports - Map 1 WinnerFUT Esports won
- Counter-Strike: Astralis vs FUT Esports - Map 2 WinnerFUT Esports won
- Counter-Strike: Astralis vs FUT Esports - Map 3 WinnerAstralis won
- Counter-Strike: Astralis vs FUT Esports - Map 4 WinnerFUT Esports won
- Games Total: O/U 3.5Over won
- Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs Astralis (+1.5)FUT Esports won
- Map Handicap: FUT (-2.5) vs Astralis (+2.5)Astralis won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.