TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Astralis vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
FUT Esportsof Astralis, FUT Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$358,019
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$409,669

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $358,019 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 235 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc44f…d49fbacked Astralis26c119,915$31,161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31,160.8721655.1%119 W · 97 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc350…3669backed FUT Esports79c117,677$92,490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,187.1411655.2%64 W · 52 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf31b…241bbacked Astralis30c28,987$8,793 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,792.7222927.5%63 W · 166 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked FUT Esports63c26,669$16,801 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,867.576058%441 W · 319 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-1.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked FUT Esports75c17,716$13,362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,353.933,25750.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L+98.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x70c1…dba0backed Astralis39c10,060$3,874 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,873.9316152.8%85 W · 76 L+10.5wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+14.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked FUT Esports65c9,570$6,197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,373.4764852%337 W · 311 L+10.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf94f…9adabacked Astralis26c9,420$2,472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,471.555267.3%35 W · 17 L+3.6wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+5.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfa88…85a5backed Astralis37c7,518$2,788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,787.6423243.5%101 W · 131 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3993…cdedbacked Astralis34c6,842$2,333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,332.9283652.5%439 W · 397 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff80…9b4dbacked Astralis23c6,657$1,529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,528.6932552.6%171 W · 154 L+11.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0562…18a4backed Astralis39c6,230$2,430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,429.8820448.5%99 W · 105 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Astralis31c5,432$1,662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,662.095,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8cbf…0eb4backed FUT Esports64c5,140$3,289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,850.2337157.7%214 W · 157 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d85…c436backed Astralis36c4,813$1,733 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,732.7421956.2%123 W · 96 L+14.7wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+10%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcd66…664fbacked FUT Esports60c4,704$2,825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,878.6738358.7%225 W · 158 L-7.9wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf5e…4189backed FUT Esports61c4,617$2,823 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,794.5533452.1%174 W · 160 L+10.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b39…3234backed FUT Esports63c4,117$2,593 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,523.1231345%141 W · 172 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked Astralis37c4,000$1,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,479.9959839.6%237 W · 361 L-15.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b97…4d93backed Astralis36c3,983$1,434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,433.748151.9%42 W · 39 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfaf1…795fbacked Astralis35c3,875$1,356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,356.2429046.9%136 W · 154 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ec…7307backed FUT Esports72c3,392$2,449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$943.713267.4%89 W · 43 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c3a…020bbacked Astralis5c3,141$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.075444.4%24 W · 30 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-15.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed FUT Esports67c2,906$1,962 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$944.850054.4%272 W · 228 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked FUT Esports75c2,686$2,015 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$671.5925555.3%141 W · 114 L+1.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed FUT Esports65c2,258$1,472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$785.2657358.8%337 W · 236 L+16.1wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x17cd…7423backed Astralis41c2,175$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$900.4846243.3%200 W · 262 L+1.9wins0.00per pick43cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5674…8b14backed FUT Esports63c2,166$1,358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$807.436742.8%157 W · 210 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed Astralis39c1,966$767 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$766.5564552.9%341 W · 304 L+27.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked FUT Esports74c1,932$1,430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$502.411,25646.7%587 W · 669 L+17.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Astralis34c1,867$631 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$630.72,06641.5%858 W · 1,208 L-49.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed FUT Esports71c1,745$1,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$504.887047.9%417 W · 453 L+15.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x61fa…7f62backed FUT Esports69c1,702$1,170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$532.0133553.4%179 W · 156 L-8.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa6c…a9b3backed FUT Esports64c1,692$1,083 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$609.241,16354.3%631 W · 532 L-38.8wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7951…bb41backed Astralis37c1,649$607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$607.3197040.7%395 W · 575 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd468…f6febacked Astralis8c1,643$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.3946042.8%197 W · 263 L+16.6wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+1.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed FUT Esports60c1,603$958 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$645.2175450.5%381 W · 373 L+17.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2924…0f31backed Astralis4c1,603$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.2349646.6%231 W · 265 L+1.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid-17.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Astralis19c1,580$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.241,27821.9%280 W · 998 L-24.3wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-16.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked FUT Esports74c1,543$1,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$402.412,32851.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L+92.3wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd64d…bcfebacked FUT Esports65c1,529$994 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$535.043560%21 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b2b…6813backed FUT Esports65c1,506$979 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$527.152254.5%12 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa97f…a818backed Astralis35c1,500$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524.9914847.3%70 W · 78 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8941…3126backed FUT Esports66c1,485$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$505.0615132.5%49 W · 102 L-8.7wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-25.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8b9b…3de2backed Astralis41c1,484$608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$608.268842%37 W · 51 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9942…5c84backed FUT Esports72c1,455$1,054 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$400.9932653.1%173 W · 153 L-1.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcef4…22e0backed FUT Esports61c1,431$873 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$558.27972.2%57 W · 22 L+5.2wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+11.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc19e…c764backed Astralis11c1,420$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.132751.9%14 W · 13 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick44cpaid-0.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x12d9…01bbbacked Astralis37c1,300$476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$475.6961228.9%177 W · 435 L-9.2wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9ca…6a8bbacked FUT Esports61c1,286$783 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$502.5775245.5%342 W · 410 L-21.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe41f…d9dcbacked FUT Esports61c1,262$770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$492.0165650.3%330 W · 326 L-15.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3bae…885abacked FUT Esports64c1,250$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45027658%160 W · 116 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbdd0…c5aebacked Astralis2c1,250$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25924.3%4 W · 88 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c93…33d5backed Astralis3c1,185$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.8248437.6%182 W · 302 L+13.7wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+42%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x255f…cd91backed FUT Esports56c1,179$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$518.98947.2%42 W · 47 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Astralis44c1,163$506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505.9281244.3%360 W · 452 L-0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4ac…5e19backed FUT Esports64c1,160$743 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41721460.3%129 W · 85 L+6.4wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed FUT Esports66c1,095$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$375.764,03848.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L-23.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79df…31d6backed Astralis5c1,061$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.6227831.7%88 W · 190 L-1.2wins0.00per pick32cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a5e…8fd0backed FUT Esports74c1,042$771 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.9222444.2%99 W · 125 L-16.0wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-20.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x341f…b48bbacked FUT Esports64c1,018$651 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$366.313243.8%14 W · 18 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-32.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f24…c911backed FUT Esports61c1,000$610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3901241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-1.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d40…ec52backed FUT Esports65c979$636 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.6538954.5%212 W · 177 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Astralis4c942.4$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.73,09648.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L+135.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd537…0f7cbacked FUT Esports65c852.33$554 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.3133457.8%193 W · 141 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7c2…9b8dbacked Astralis39c837.89$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.0847147.3%223 W · 248 L+10.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7926…a4febacked Astralis2c830.88$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.073158.1%18 W · 13 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick52cpaid-9.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x041b…d3ebbacked FUT Esports66c771.81$509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.4131451.6%162 W · 152 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x42b7…77dcbacked Astralis36c750$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27035242.9%151 W · 201 L+0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3fc7…62b9backed Astralis36c750$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27032042.5%136 W · 184 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed FUT Esports62c684.04$424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.9446749.7%232 W · 235 L-12.4wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2bfe…1220backed FUT Esports63c646.23$407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.119266.3%61 W · 31 L+6.7wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+11.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Astralis36c640$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.47,92550.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L+179.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2541…2b2cbacked FUT Esports78c634.02$493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.67250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick77cpaid-35.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f93…bffabacked FUT Esports78c614.85$482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.6178963.8%503 W · 286 L-2.5wins0.00per pick64cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f2e…caf6backed Astralis44c611.29$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.971758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.5wins+0.15per pick44cpaid+19.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd43f…0bb0backed Astralis13c574.81$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.1838131%118 W · 263 L-11.1wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-21.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x14a6…b1b6backed FUT Esports76c541.92$411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.185451.9%28 W · 26 L+6.0wins+0.11per pick41cpaid+33.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Astralis30c536.78$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.8561837.9%234 W · 384 L-22.5wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-25.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3804…6d61backed Astralis36c534.22$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.326426.6%17 W · 47 L-12.3wins-0.19per pick46cpaid-47%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0xfb87…0335backed Astralis38c532.86$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.4936554.8%200 W · 165 L+23.9wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+11.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x143d…2602backed FUT Esports57c527.62$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.8812557.6%72 W · 53 L-4.8wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-7.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x52f8…ad19backed Astralis16c522.44$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.465536.4%20 W · 35 L-5.3wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-34.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa05c…aa9bbacked FUT Esports60c500$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20021557.2%123 W · 92 L+0.3wins0.00per pick57cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14a0…22bbbacked FUT Esports70c500$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1501,39365.9%918 W · 475 L+26.8wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Astralis35c499.99$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17551252.3%268 W · 244 L+16.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Astralis33c494.07$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.74252.4%22 W · 20 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcfaf…9206backed Astralis5c471.5$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5821246.2%98 W · 114 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e76…05aabacked FUT Esports64c458.63$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.112572%18 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick67cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x56b3…2c42backed FUT Esports64c458.63$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.1136749.3%181 W · 186 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9635…ae57backed Astralis3c454.31$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6350%0 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xed52…2dbdbacked FUT Esports63c431.84$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.9813553.3%72 W · 63 L+7.6wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf035…0924backed Astralis13c408.36$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.4942845.6%195 W · 233 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f14…1e77backed Astralis4c403.86$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8311166.7%74 W · 37 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+3.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x38ce…5431backed FUT Esports63c400.64$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.3617462.1%108 W · 66 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd795…589abacked Astralis21c400$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$824951%25 W · 24 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04db…7703backed Astralis21c399.96$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8241645.9%191 W · 225 L+22.3wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+2.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x839f…c2cebacked FUT Esports69c397.04$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.9616451.8%85 W · 79 L-7.2wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0311…f80ebacked Astralis8c390.86$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.0118126.5%48 W · 133 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick22cpaid+26.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Astralis11c384.8$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.0357322.3%128 W · 445 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.