TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Valorant · resolved market

Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group Alpha

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Paper Rexof Nongshim RedForce, Paper Rex
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$112,824
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$127,303

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $112,824 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 239 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Valorant
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xec5c…3440backed Nongshim RedForce46c7,408$3,392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,391.99862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee8e…0a7bbacked Nongshim RedForce56c5,601$3,137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,136.5278162%484 W · 297 L+16.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked Nongshim RedForce54c3,851$2,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,079.6826738.2%102 W · 165 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Nongshim RedForce57c3,678$2,111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,111.3441537.1%154 W · 261 L-26.8wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-31.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked Paper Rex44c3,537$1,547 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,990.1233153.5%177 W · 154 L-0.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb877…a13fbacked Nongshim RedForce45c2,964$1,347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,347.1924732%79 W · 168 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-22.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x085e…9aeabacked Paper Rex50c2,950$1,475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4752860.7%17 W · 11 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+15%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x697f…b756backed Nongshim RedForce53c2,928$1,546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,546.1313345.9%61 W · 72 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c4b…8a81backed Nongshim RedForce41c2,866$1,168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,168.0762156.4%350 W · 271 L+13.0wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked Paper Rex42c2,510$1,054 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,455.7915850%79 W · 79 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8cb…8f46backed Nongshim RedForce55c2,500$1,375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3751838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick42cpaid+1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2606…ba10backed Paper Rex42c2,398$1,007 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,390.781675%12 W · 4 L+4.6wins+0.29per pick46cpaid+60.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Paper Rex44c2,170$956 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,213.5861035.9%219 W · 391 L-17.5wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb19f…dd0ebacked Paper Rex47c2,128$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,127.663638.9%14 W · 22 L-3.9wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-27.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0fa3…172fbacked Paper Rex44c1,987$874 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,112.722552%13 W · 12 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+22.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Nongshim RedForce67c1,894$1,276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,275.8817463.8%111 W · 63 L+7.2wins+0.04per pick60cpaid-2.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcc30…c8a5backed Paper Rex43c1,858$808 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,050.3317332.4%56 W · 117 L-11.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-16%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Paper Rex43c1,750$753 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$997.541734.8%145 W · 272 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d43…ce68backed Nongshim RedForce59c1,687$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0006445.3%29 W · 35 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-11.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8688…9d8cbacked Paper Rex45c1,633$735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$897.896863.2%43 W · 25 L+10.3wins+0.15per pick48cpaid+34.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Paper Rex45c1,471$656 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$814.8488844.4%394 W · 494 L+0.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bcb…b05abacked Nongshim RedForce50c1,468$734 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7345666.1%37 W · 19 L+11.1wins+0.20per pick46cpaid+97.9%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xdbb3…76a9backed Paper Rex40c1,445$585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$860.221558.1%125 W · 90 L+15.9wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x16bc…decabacked Nongshim RedForce69c1,385$950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$950.3415431.2%48 W · 106 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa55…e024backed Nongshim RedForce58c1,327$770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$769.734060%24 W · 16 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+10.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked Nongshim RedForce51c1,300$659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$659.4645033.8%152 W · 298 L-35.6wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-32.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xc1ae…f001backed Paper Rex43c1,280$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$729.593129%9 W · 22 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-17.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf802…d91dbacked Nongshim RedForce74c1,246$925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$925.397954.4%43 W · 36 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e3f…6941backed Paper Rex53c1,202$634 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$567.626051.9%135 W · 125 L+10.5wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7441…4891backed Paper Rex52c1,064$555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$509.871957.9%11 W · 8 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcec1…9c0cbacked Paper Rex45c1,053$478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$574.4717353.8%93 W · 80 L+7.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1064…f153backed Nongshim RedForce57c1,000$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5703930.8%12 W · 27 L-5.3wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-37.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa5cf…8cc5backed Nongshim RedForce57c1,000$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57028541.1%117 W · 168 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e15…7531backed Nongshim RedForce58c999.99$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$579.9933348.3%161 W · 172 L+13.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Paper Rex48c967$468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$499.3132141.7%134 W · 187 L-16.1wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-14.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1f3f…5878backed Paper Rex43c940$404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$535.86737.3%25 W · 42 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9237…9c99backed Nongshim RedForce58c856.51$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+21.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed Paper Rex46c837.87$387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451.0626932.3%87 W · 182 L-25.7wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-42.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Paper Rex35c813.89$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$526.5826634.6%92 W · 174 L-13.9wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-30.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked Nongshim RedForce55c796.26$438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$437.942638.5%10 W · 16 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked Paper Rex41c776.96$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$458.4155152.5%289 W · 262 L+20.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3865…fcbebacked Paper Rex55c754.32$412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.7622352.9%118 W · 105 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36f2…4ca4backed Paper Rex56c753.95$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.553284.4%27 W · 5 L+7.5wins+0.23per pick61cpaid+43.3%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x7ca5…73bcbacked Paper Rex43c707.43$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$400.431100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+130.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd07…8d16backed Paper Rex44c679.98$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$380.792934.5%10 W · 19 L-4.6wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-29.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1c83…6f40backed Nongshim RedForce60c670.53$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40011152.3%58 W · 53 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed Paper Rex42c645.45$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372.9824946.2%115 W · 134 L-0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1234…c1bbbacked Paper Rex46c643.04$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$347.241942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid+11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26e3…0b75backed Paper Rex42c595.22$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$345.2310551.4%54 W · 51 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc187…efaabacked Nongshim RedForce62c542.16$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.935561.8%34 W · 21 L+4.1wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+22%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked Nongshim RedForce51c518$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.8235142.5%149 W · 202 L-14.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-18.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6122…8e92backed Paper Rex54c500.4$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.271100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x13c7…11d9backed Paper Rex58c499.99$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21015553.5%83 W · 72 L+9.0wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+11.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8976…7367backed Nongshim RedForce73c497.1$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.885343.4%23 W · 30 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-13.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf3b…0375backed Paper Rex42c494.18$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.629845.9%45 W · 53 L+0.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid+5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Paper Rex45c490.68$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.139053.3%48 W · 42 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Nongshim RedForce26c489.57$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.8246326.6%123 W · 340 L-26.0wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-38.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5984…76ebbacked Paper Rex42c485$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.329733.3%99 W · 198 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6cd…e027backed Nongshim RedForce57c436$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.5227847.1%131 W · 147 L+0.7wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7140…47e3backed Paper Rex46c434.78$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.782147.6%10 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Nongshim RedForce59c432.16$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.931,74646.2%806 W · 940 L-3.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe01f…ab4abacked Paper Rex42c429.31$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.3125444.9%114 W · 140 L+5.4wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Paper Rex26c371.99$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.6654342.4%230 W · 313 L-12.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8f9…fee2backed Nongshim RedForce58c364.99$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.6928247.5%134 W · 148 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ffb…df76backed Nongshim RedForce56c357.14$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20019655.6%109 W · 87 L+12.9wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+16.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Nongshim RedForce71c350.12$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.381,41751.3%727 W · 690 L+49.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+2.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xde19…e90dbacked Nongshim RedForce48c348$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.44580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick50cpaid+61.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Paper Rex41c345.55$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.2534847.4%165 W · 183 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8115…8521backed Nongshim RedForce47c345$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.68837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.21per pick58cpaid-33.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc33d…0d40backed Paper Rex43c328.16$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.7541835.6%149 W · 269 L-19.8wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-32.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7ce7…81a3backed Paper Rex53c317.22$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1485952.5%31 W · 28 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b55…d74bbacked Paper Rex48c300$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15686747.5%412 W · 455 L-2.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf13…ed3dbacked Nongshim RedForce39c300$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.141136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba58…6d74backed Paper Rex45c300$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16525555.7%142 W · 113 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94a1…2075backed Paper Rex46c300$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16223847.9%114 W · 124 L+14.8wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+13.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x368d…d853backed Nongshim RedForce47c300$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14114447.2%68 W · 76 L-0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf012…7354backed Paper Rex53c293.43$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.92634.6%9 W · 17 L-4.4wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-38.1%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0xec56…1259backed Paper Rex54c288.74$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.693540%14 W · 21 L-3.9wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-24.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x17cd…7423backed Paper Rex46c279.09$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.7112138.8%47 W · 74 L-8.3wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-22.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3989…0539backed Nongshim RedForce59c250.84$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+56.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Paper Rex42c248.43$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.088551.8%44 W · 41 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+12.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x56fc…affbbacked Nongshim RedForce74c244$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.627252.8%38 W · 34 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd31…8004backed Nongshim RedForce52c243.79$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.5222047.7%105 W · 115 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9eb9…cb5dbacked Paper Rex45c222.05$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.1315145%68 W · 83 L+0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9734…bfd8backed Nongshim RedForce58c218.47$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.9419257.8%111 W · 81 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc5ee…eb4fbacked Paper Rex46c217.35$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.373455.9%19 W · 15 L+3.9wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+12.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xaadb…85f9backed Paper Rex43c216.28$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.2842840%171 W · 257 L-22.4wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-14.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2e7c…164dbacked Paper Rex44c214.56$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.1512850%64 W · 64 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xab9f…75f1backed Paper Rex48c211.27$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.3513225%33 W · 99 L-18.7wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-48.1%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x4c61…c5fdbacked Paper Rex45c211.11$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.11728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick45cpaid-48.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5de7…5417backed Paper Rex57c208$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.7623644.9%106 W · 130 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc64…fc2bbacked Nongshim RedForce56c205.36$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11518653.8%100 W · 86 L-7.2wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-4.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x505f…8eadbacked Nongshim RedForce58c200$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda16…6da2backed Nongshim RedForce55c200$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1109750.5%49 W · 48 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6489…2ddfbacked Nongshim RedForce49c194.75$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.22962.1%18 W · 11 L+2.7wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+25.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7c5e…55fcbacked Nongshim RedForce55c190.91$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-13.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Paper Rex22c190$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.0318241.2%75 W · 107 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-20.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f5c…9e02backed Paper Rex52c185.98$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.953831.6%12 W · 26 L-6.7wins-0.18per pick49cpaid-33.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xcf0c…2265backed Paper Rex42c181.49$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.4910455.8%58 W · 46 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x537d…615bbacked Nongshim RedForce57c176.5$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.612634.6%9 W · 17 L-3.0wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-32.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.