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Valorant · resolved market

Valorant: Team Heretics vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Alpha

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Natus Vincereof Team Heretics, Natus Vincere
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$122,455
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$125,949

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $122,455 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 247 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Valorant
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2606…ba10backed Natus Vincere33c19,999$6,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,449.611675%12 W · 4 L+4.6wins+0.29per pick46cpaid+60.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Team Heretics71c7,383$5,207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,207.3341537.1%154 W · 261 L-26.8wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-31.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Team Heretics76c5,117$3,865 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,864.8317463.8%111 W · 63 L+7.2wins+0.04per pick60cpaid-2.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Natus Vincere30c4,132$1,225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,906.393248.1%448 W · 484 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked Natus Vincere31c4,028$1,264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,763.145033.8%152 W · 298 L-35.6wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-32.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xee8e…0a7bbacked Team Heretics69c4,013$2,755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,754.5678162%484 W · 297 L+16.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba38…e406backed Team Heretics70c3,527$2,454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,453.7854851.1%280 W · 268 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Natus Vincere33c3,000$990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,009.9932047.8%153 W · 167 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+11.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb877…a13fbacked Natus Vincere78c2,958$2,314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$643.7924732%79 W · 168 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-22.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked Team Heretics67c2,888$1,935 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,934.9633153.5%177 W · 154 L-0.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67e6…86edbacked Natus Vincere32c2,814$896 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,918.15742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Natus Vincere24c2,472$593 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,878.9465559.4%389 W · 266 L+50.5wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+6.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9c4b…8a81backed Team Heretics67c2,366$1,580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,579.6662156.4%350 W · 271 L+13.0wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b87…d7aabacked Team Heretics68c2,328$1,583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,583.14837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-21.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Natus Vincere55c2,314$1,273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,041.2913050.8%66 W · 64 L+7.3wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3f40…e1f2backed Team Heretics67c2,239$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5001442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid+5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26f8…3452backed Team Heretics74c2,204$1,631 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,630.965955.9%33 W · 26 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Natus Vincere27c1,985$541 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,443.91,74646.2%806 W · 940 L-3.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed Team Heretics63c1,820$1,142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,142.1426050%130 W · 130 L+0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Natus Vincere35c1,733$598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,134.9389344.3%396 W · 497 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb19f…dd0ebacked Team Heretics65c1,540$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0003638.9%14 W · 22 L-3.9wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-27.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Natus Vincere36c1,042$374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$667.6570251.3%360 W · 342 L+7.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Natus Vincere14c1,001$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$860.8639142.5%166 W · 225 L+18.9wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+14.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1d91…c930backed Team Heretics60c842.46$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503.621257.1%121 W · 91 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked Natus Vincere34c818.07$282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$536.5355152.5%289 W · 262 L+20.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Natus Vincere33c812.49$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$540.3953159.1%314 W · 217 L+41.6wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+7.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcc30…c8a5backed Natus Vincere17c806.31$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$671.9217332.4%56 W · 117 L-11.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-16%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Team Heretics80c799.99$637 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$636.9913642.6%58 W · 78 L-8.4wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8c8c…c7b4backed Team Heretics64c795.51$513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5133060%18 W · 12 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+14.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x533d…ceeebacked Team Heretics13c767.98$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.8440%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f9c…3624backed Team Heretics67c746.27$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick71cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f2b…0f9abacked Team Heretics67c725.27$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485.936762.7%42 W · 25 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93d1…9daebacked Team Heretics70c713.16$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5003447.1%16 W · 18 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+47.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Natus Vincere17c710.82$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$589.6653455.2%295 W · 239 L+23.5wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x65b7…3798backed Team Heretics66c651.84$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430.2119052.6%100 W · 90 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Natus Vincere30c648$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$453.1261035.9%219 W · 391 L-17.5wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ab6…078ebacked Natus Vincere32c639.31$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$437.319052.2%47 W · 43 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fca…e8edbacked Natus Vincere38c627.35$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$390.441323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.4wins-0.18per pick41cpaid-50.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xda32…04a1backed Natus Vincere41c610$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360.8650%3 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+29%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9734…bfd8backed Team Heretics68c594.82$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404.4819257.8%111 W · 81 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Natus Vincere35c571$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371.155244.2%23 W · 29 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf802…d91dbacked Natus Vincere50c561.68$283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.227954.4%43 W · 36 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4da…1772backed Team Heretics66c534.37$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.348638.4%33 W · 53 L-7.5wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-26.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xd9e7…a447backed Team Heretics5c528.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252060%12 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c1b…de56backed Natus Vincere28c524.43$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$376.436637.9%25 W · 41 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd500…4568backed Natus Vincere34c500$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3301266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.6wins+0.21per pick45cpaid+71.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Team Heretics46c494.61$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.4556557.7%326 W · 239 L+35.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+1.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5489…1633backed Natus Vincere10c491.41$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$441.646533.8%22 W · 43 L-4.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf32d…bbbbbacked Natus Vincere62c479.4$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.7914653.4%78 W · 68 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb3f0…c8a6backed Team Heretics67c477.61$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3203764.9%24 W · 13 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+19.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbf16…9c6fbacked Team Heretics65c463.78$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30020%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x199b…354ebacked Natus Vincere34c441.99$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.995639.3%22 W · 34 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4031…92c8backed Team Heretics65c386.98$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25014645.2%66 W · 80 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-14%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Natus Vincere33c381.61$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.873540%14 W · 21 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf04…ad65backed Team Heretics66c375$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.2528541.1%117 W · 168 L-26.4wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-18.7%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x8a38…fee0backed Team Heretics67c362$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.5420%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbd31…8004backed Natus Vincere33c355.74$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.8222047.7%105 W · 115 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x94a1…2075backed Natus Vincere37c340$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.224047.9%115 W · 125 L+14.7wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Natus Vincere45c338.77$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.631,60737.5%603 W · 1,004 L-75.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-26.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked Natus Vincere31c333$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.777953.2%42 W · 37 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdca4…1c68backed Team Heretics68c329.41$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2243834.2%13 W · 25 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick38cpaid+7.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Team Heretics76c323.31$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.2677929.5%230 W · 549 L-72.4wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-39%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x675f…aa0bbacked Natus Vincere37c315.92$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.03560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+26.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xba58…6d74backed Natus Vincere28c310.77$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.7725555.7%142 W · 113 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3865…fcbebacked Team Heretics67c305.49$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.6822452.7%118 W · 106 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x78e5…e9b5backed Team Heretics69c304.99$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.33742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0128…d18abacked Natus Vincere34c301.42$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.258151.9%42 W · 39 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+12.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b55…d74bbacked Team Heretics66c300$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19886747.5%412 W · 455 L-2.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf99…9840backed Team Heretics67c300$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20118149.7%90 W · 91 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a0c…9db8backed Natus Vincere29c300$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2131729.4%5 W · 12 L-2.7wins-0.16per pick46cpaid-37.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Natus Vincere34c286.23$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.649053.3%48 W · 42 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed Natus Vincere44c286$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.2266638%253 W · 413 L-32.3wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-22.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked Team Heretics69c285$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.7135142.5%149 W · 202 L-14.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-18.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8f9…fee2backed Natus Vincere35c280.29$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.2928247.5%134 W · 148 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82bf…de71backed Natus Vincere39c265.51$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.725752.1%134 W · 123 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed Natus Vincere47c251$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.0142540.5%172 W · 253 L-22.7wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-27.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2aa5…ff32backed Natus Vincere31c250$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.520840.9%85 W · 123 L-12.7wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-15.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Natus Vincere32c224$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.325846.6%27 W · 31 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c61…c5fdbacked Team Heretics67c223.88$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick45cpaid-48.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf4ec…c574backed Team Heretics67c222.32$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15035157.3%201 W · 150 L+4.5wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x537d…615bbacked Team Heretics64c220.78$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.32634.6%9 W · 17 L-3.0wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-32.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x72be…c534backed Natus Vincere33c212.12$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.1210225.5%26 W · 76 L-10.8wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-37.4%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x6c34…a023backed Natus Vincere33c210$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.31080%8 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.22per pick58cpaid+44.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Team Heretics63c209.75$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.0478562.8%493 W · 292 L+56.2wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+7.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Natus Vincere30c196.37$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.311,42251.3%729 W · 693 L+49.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+2.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0968…18bfbacked Natus Vincere10c196.36$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.36250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+390.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6bb…6b39backed Natus Vincere49c185$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.253444.1%15 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-14%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x84d8…9ccdbacked Natus Vincere22c184$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.48862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+30.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdabd…6adabacked Natus Vincere30c180$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12610237.3%38 W · 64 L-6.5wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-21.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4b6c…9a83backed Team Heretics67c179.1$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick68cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x317f…3a7abacked Natus Vincere79c174.19$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.3314747.6%70 W · 77 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd991…0133backed Team Heretics65c168.69$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11011559.1%68 W · 47 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f4b…69debacked Natus Vincere34c165.45$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.2351948.4%251 W · 268 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93be…af87backed Team Heretics64c159.39$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.018254.9%45 W · 37 L-5.5wins-0.07per pick62cpaid-13%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x891e…1e7abacked Natus Vincere61c158.58$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.353470.6%24 W · 10 L+3.6wins+0.11per pick60cpaid+10.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8c14…d8fbbacked Team Heretics64c156.26$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005162.7%32 W · 19 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+12.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x94f1…b9e7backed Team Heretics71c156.03$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.1932152.6%169 W · 152 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf30a…61fbbacked Natus Vincere45c153.32$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.619238%35 W · 57 L-7.0wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-30%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Team Heretics75c152.8$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.4226634.6%92 W · 174 L-13.9wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-30.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7d9e…a999backed Team Heretics66c151.76$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.951369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.6wins+0.20per pick49cpaid+62.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.