Valorant · resolved market
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41d3367b24e677c476f667e3e3cee901a2303dbde01a381780e5b0c9ec5bb124
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Hereticsof Team Heretics, Natus Vincere
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,294
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,211
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,294 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xba38…e406backed Team Heretics | 68c | 7,007$4,773 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,233.71 | 547 | 51.2%280 W · 267 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Natus Vincere | 38c | 4,254$1,599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,599.09 | 931 | 48.1%448 W · 483 L | -11.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3833…33d1backed Natus Vincere | 43c | 2,208$949 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$948.99 | 104 | 55.8%58 W · 46 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked Natus Vincere | 26c | 1,267$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.08 | 450 | 33.8%152 W · 298 L | -35.6wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Team Heretics | 57c | 1,111$633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.73 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…73e9backed Natus Vincere | 30c | 1,001$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.3 | 390 | 42.6%166 W · 224 L | +19.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked Team Heretics | 70c | 943.37$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.01 | 655 | 59.4%389 W · 266 L | +50.5wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Team Heretics | 72c | 833.86$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.76 | 174 | 63.8%111 W · 63 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Team Heretics | 72c | 822.07$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.34 | 888 | 44.4%394 W · 494 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fbe…7d07backed Natus Vincere | 31c | 613.6$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.96 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed Natus Vincere | 33c | 606$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.98 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Natus Vincere | 39c | 592.24$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.97 | 610 | 35.9%219 W · 391 L | -17.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0a…b543backed Natus Vincere | 40c | 550$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.95 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f19…8ce4backed Team Heretics | 59c | 550$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed Natus Vincere | 29c | 517.24$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 173 | 32.4%56 W · 117 L | -11.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4031…92c8backed Team Heretics | 60c | 433.33$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.33 | 146 | 45.2%66 W · 80 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Natus Vincere | 28c | 415.94$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.72 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x307d…9163backed Team Heretics | 80c | 400$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 224 | 55.4%124 W · 100 L | -12.6wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -10%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb877…a13fbacked Natus Vincere | 16c | 400$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f9…fee2backed Natus Vincere | 33c | 378.97$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 282 | 47.5%134 W · 148 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56fc…affbbacked Team Heretics | 61c | 321.85$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.73 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Team Heretics | 67c | 320.51$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.6 | 312 | 27.6%86 W · 226 L | -33.9wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7d91…bb2abacked Team Heretics | 65c | 307.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.69 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5f…3492backed Team Heretics | 68c | 206.32$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.32 | 342 | 53.2%182 W · 160 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…6053backed Team Heretics | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 531 | 59.1%314 W · 217 L | +41.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Team Heretics | 74c | 187.86$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.22 | 1,601 | 37.5%600 W · 1,001 L | -75.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2924…0f31backed Natus Vincere | 26c | 179.74$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.73 | 301 | 47.2%142 W · 159 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72be…c534backed Natus Vincere | 41c | 172.68$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 102 | 25.5%26 W · 76 L | -10.8wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Natus Vincere | 24c | 162.02$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.3 | 1,746 | 46.2%806 W · 940 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34f9…12ebbacked Natus Vincere | 34c | 153.81$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.87 | 212 | 40.1%85 W · 127 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x783f…8f90backed Natus Vincere | 20c | 146.25$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -46%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Natus Vincere | 20c | 130.39$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.35 | 1,490 | 46.6%695 W · 795 L | -16.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Team Heretics | 66c | 110$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.9 | 108 | 40.7%44 W · 64 L | -7.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8849…9a83backed Team Heretics | 73c | 105.48$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.48 | 214 | 54.2%116 W · 98 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76f1…f655backed Team Heretics | 63c | 105$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 375 | 45.6%171 W · 204 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Team Heretics | 59c | 103.33$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.01 | 348 | 47.4%165 W · 183 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa74a…4893backed Natus Vincere | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 347 | 39.8%138 W · 209 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Natus Vincere | 21c | 98.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 1,417 | 51.3%727 W · 690 L | +49.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Team Heretics | 74c | 86$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.51 | 182 | 41.2%75 W · 107 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Natus Vincere | 35c | 81.49$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.32 | 702 | 51.3%360 W · 342 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Team Heretics | 32c | 81$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.08 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Natus Vincere | 68c | 81$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.08 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed Team Heretics | 68c | 69.09$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.25 | 257 | 52.1%134 W · 123 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Team Heretics | 70c | 67.95$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.39 | 196 | 61.7%121 W · 75 L | +20.0wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…bf5cbacked Natus Vincere | 24c | 67.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d91…c930backed Team Heretics | 75c | 66.51$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.93 | 212 | 57.1%121 W · 91 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3aff…c55ebacked Natus Vincere | 32c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5837…9a00backed Team Heretics | 61c | 52.2$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 160 | 50.6%81 W · 79 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f65…d822backed Natus Vincere | 39c | 50.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 84 | 51.2%43 W · 41 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Team Heretics | 72c | 49.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 636 | 52.7%335 W · 301 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22e5…5e22backed Natus Vincere | 40c | 49.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94f1…b9e7backed Team Heretics | 73c | 47.53$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 321 | 52.6%169 W · 152 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51b6…1903backed Team Heretics | 64c | 47.13$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.13 | 263 | 54.4%143 W · 120 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x317f…3a7abacked Natus Vincere | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 147 | 47.6%70 W · 77 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Team Heretics | 70c | 42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 267 | 30.7%82 W · 185 L | -13.9wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5e…5cdbbacked Team Heretics | 65c | 36.01$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49ec…ac1cbacked Natus Vincere | 28c | 36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5959…4c4cbacked Team Heretics | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -6.2wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -28%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1445…614abacked Team Heretics | 74c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 125 | 52.8%66 W · 59 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc539…5ec2backed Team Heretics | 69c | 15.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Valorant: Team Heretics vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Map Handicap: TH (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5)Natus Vincere won
- Valorant: Team Heretics vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group AlphaNatus Vincere won
- Valorant: Team Heretics vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 WinnerNatus Vincere won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.