Champions League · resolved market
Olympique de Marseille vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc521724b6df59c6350a11af844968f14b229adac1136eb133fa8fba33438f87e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,208
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,923
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,208 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 24c | 9,683$2,306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,306.39 | 1,959 | 44.1%863 W · 1,096 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb19f…dd0ebacked Under | 44c | 1,805$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…a040backed Over | 79c | 1,762$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.9 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5c…e4f6backed Over | 57c | 1,744$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$743.71 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 17c | 1,206$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.24 | 594 | 41.8%248 W · 346 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 17c | 806.35$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.17 | 582 | 48.8%284 W · 298 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Over | 73c | 650$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.5 | 220 | 54.1%119 W · 101 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa776…a17bbacked Over | 70c | 572$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.76 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Under | 18c | 361$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.01 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 32c | 252.11$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.47 | 1,487 | 40.3%599 W · 888 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 66c | 242.42$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.42 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe220…f862backed Over | 63c | 200$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6079…81c6backed Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 100 | 49%49 W · 51 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 14c | 162.37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.77 | 591 | 36.5%216 W · 375 L | -30.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bfa…a8debacked Over | 68c | 159.96$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2221…ec1bbacked Over | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7181…1b0abacked Over | 68c | 145.16$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.45 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 35c | 134.15$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.83 | 217 | 45.6%99 W · 118 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc688…5987backed Under | 42c | 120.69$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.59 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Over | 73c | 99$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.73 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee8f…9f44backed Over | 66c | 95.45$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.45 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 67c | 88.51$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.21 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Over | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd235…6eebbacked Over | 51c | 82.35$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.35 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 122 | 54.9%67 W · 55 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7f…bce6backed Over | 55c | 75$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +4.6wins | +0.16per pick | 36cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 59c | 67.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 194 | 55.7%108 W · 86 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd69e…3393backed Over | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 23c | 61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 338 | 51.5%174 W · 164 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Under | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 40c | 42.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 383 | 43.1%165 W · 218 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 76c | 37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 209 | 47.8%100 W · 109 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0052…4d9ebacked Over | 55c | 34.51$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 58 | 72.4%42 W · 16 L | +10.9wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +39%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 34c | 30.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 343 | 42.3%145 W · 198 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc1d…f32cbacked Over | 66c | 30.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +3.4wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 223 | 56.1%125 W · 98 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1df8…475cbacked Over | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 102 | 56.9%58 W · 44 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8da3…9f2cbacked Under | 48c | 20.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +121.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e52…2320backed Over | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +5.6wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +145.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc2b0…e756backed Over | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…1589backed Over | 73c | 14.18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 92 | 33.7%31 W · 61 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -38%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Olympique de Marseille vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 1.5this page
- Olympique de Marseille vs. Liverpool FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Olympique de Marseille vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Olympique de Marseille vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Olympique de Marseille vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Liverpool FC (-1.5)Liverpool FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.