Spread: Liverpool FC (-1.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa46ffbb5fe4ccb93a835c7a87beabfa94a85096d7e58595de15cca8418f24ef0

Rebuilt 3 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Liverpool FCof Liverpool FC, Olympique de Marseille
Resolved: Jan 21, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $46,559
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $53,779

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,559 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Champions League
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Olympique de Marseille	73c	17,129$12,547 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12,547.39	1,994	43.9%875 W · 1,119 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Liverpool FC	25c	5,576$1,386 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,189.9	582	48.8%284 W · 298 L	+2.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x8b21…41fabacked Liverpool FC	41c	4,336$1,778 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,558.24	129	56.6%73 W · 56 L	+8.4wins	+0.07per pick	50cpaid	+15.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8e68…d99bbacked Olympique de Marseille	71c	3,339$2,371 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,370.7	131	51.1%67 W · 64 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Liverpool FC	29c	3,000$870 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,130	219	38.4%84 W · 135 L	+8.0wins	+0.04per pick	35cpaid	+17.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked Liverpool FC	26c	3,000$780 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,219.99	181	60.8%110 W · 71 L	+18.5wins	+0.10per pick	51cpaid	+31.1%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Liverpool FC	29c	2,641$764 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,877.08	380	43.9%167 W · 213 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b5a…87efbacked Liverpool FC	28c	2,218$618 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,600.25	43	41.9%18 W · 25 L	+5.4wins	+0.13per pick	29cpaid	+104.4%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Olympique de Marseille	74c	1,444$1,068 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,068.35	597	41.7%249 W · 348 L	-18.3wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1430…a753backed Liverpool FC	27c	1,377$372 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,005.21	39	30.8%12 W · 27 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	33cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3eee…e8b6backed Olympique de Marseille	74c	1,306$966 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$966.17	79	46.8%37 W · 42 L	+4.4wins	+0.06per pick	41cpaid	+12.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Liverpool FC	26c	1,134$299 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$835.12	53	34%18 W · 35 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	35cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Olympique de Marseille	74c	1,018$749 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$748.58	387	48.3%187 W · 200 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x39a5…c9a1backed Liverpool FC	28c	892.86$250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$642.86	26	23.1%6 W · 20 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	25cpaid	-41.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe361…bf48backed Liverpool FC	24c	838.83$205 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$633.83	50	34%17 W · 33 L	+3.1wins	+0.06per pick	28cpaid	+34.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Olympique de Marseille	74c	788$583 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$583	161	44.1%71 W · 90 L	-13.8wins	-0.09per pick	53cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe2bb…ea55backed Liverpool FC	27c	762.87$205 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$557.52	52	48.1%25 W · 27 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xde11…c4afbacked Olympique de Marseille	74c	709.28$525 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$524.58	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.7wins	-0.74per pick	74cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x33e6…0244backed Liverpool FC	29c	689.83$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$489.78	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	+0.8wins	+0.06per pick	30cpaid	+11.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c0b…43cbbacked Liverpool FC	27c	649.65$173 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$476.55	139	31.7%44 W · 95 L	+4.7wins	+0.03per pick	28cpaid	+12.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5ad5…37b9backed Liverpool FC	66c	610.83$403 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$207.68	58	29.3%17 W · 41 L	+6.0wins	+0.10per pick	19cpaid	+158%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd4e2…0f82backed Liverpool FC	33c	606.06$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$406.06	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	32cpaid	+1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Olympique de Marseille	71c	400$284 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$284	449	55.7%250 W · 199 L	+5.4wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e28…c195backed Liverpool FC	27c	370.37$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$270.37	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+1.2wins	+0.25per pick	35cpaid	+118.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc688…5987backed Olympique de Marseille	74c	350$259 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$259.06	39	35.9%14 W · 25 L	-4.1wins	-0.10per pick	46cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc922…2618backed Liverpool FC	26c	306.73$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$226.98	197	55.3%109 W · 88 L	+6.7wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+17%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb12…f057backed Liverpool FC	24c	300$72 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$228	111	52.3%58 W · 53 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc383…a540backed Olympique de Marseille	71c	299.98$213 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$212.99	135	52.6%71 W · 64 L	+2.1wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9b1…242fbacked Olympique de Marseille	73c	298.22$218 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$218	96	44.8%43 W · 53 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	42cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Liverpool FC	27c	282.92$76 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$207.37	397	46.9%186 W · 211 L	+9.7wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d58…2073backed Olympique de Marseille	71c	277.61$197 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$197.1	178	55.6%99 W · 79 L	+7.7wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb8a0…35b6backed Liverpool FC	27c	218.06$59 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$159.04	22	50%11 W · 11 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	56cpaid	-8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4109…7e24backed Olympique de Marseille	71c	200$142 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$142	183	50.3%92 W · 91 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa97e…7753backed Olympique de Marseille	71c	190$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$134.9	132	52.3%69 W · 63 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc776…2915backed Liverpool FC	25c	172.12$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$128.74	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+1.2wins	+0.62per pick	38cpaid	+195.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7398…f4b6backed Olympique de Marseille	71c	170$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120.7	115	48.7%56 W · 59 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf79e…9a84backed Olympique de Marseille	71c	170$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120.7	143	52.4%75 W · 68 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x2692…2698backed Olympique de Marseille	71c	160$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.6	162	51.2%83 W · 79 L	+2.6wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa800…cc71backed Olympique de Marseille	71c	150$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.5	156	51.3%80 W · 76 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed Liverpool FC	27c	148$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$108.04	290	34.5%100 W · 190 L	+16.0wins	+0.06per pick	29cpaid	+16.8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0fad…aa0fbacked Olympique de Marseille	71c	123.17$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.45	114	49.1%56 W · 58 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31ce…88cdbacked Olympique de Marseille	71c	120$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.2	117	47%55 W · 62 L	-2.1wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7cae…bf8abacked Olympique de Marseille	71c	120$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.2	116	48.3%56 W · 60 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcf7…bcbebacked Olympique de Marseille	71c	120$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.2	126	52.4%66 W · 60 L	+2.2wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd2a2…004abacked Olympique de Marseille	71c	120$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.2	113	50.4%57 W · 56 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc869…bc8dbacked Liverpool FC	42c	119.05$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$69.05	13	61.5%8 W · 5 L	+1.7wins	+0.13per pick	48cpaid	+12.7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa7b5…798cbacked Olympique de Marseille	71c	100$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71	74	48.6%36 W · 38 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Liverpool FC	30c	99$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$69.19	223	56.1%125 W · 98 L	+13.1wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4865…904dbacked Olympique de Marseille	74c	88.5$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.49	50	68%34 W · 16 L	+1.3wins	+0.03per pick	65cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaab6…607ebacked Liverpool FC	26c	87.28$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$64.51	117	50.4%59 W · 58 L	+2.2wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+11.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd03b…856cbacked Olympique de Marseille	71c	80$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.8	88	50%44 W · 44 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1db3…ada1backed Olympique de Marseille	72c	77$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.44	106	48.1%51 W · 55 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+12.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4bba…cf14backed Liverpool FC	27c	74.07$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54.07	15	73.3%11 W · 4 L	+1.9wins	+0.13per pick	60cpaid	+30.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2095…8521backed Liverpool FC	26c	70.06$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.84	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0d2…15afbacked Liverpool FC	29c	68.97$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.97	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.6wins	+0.16per pick	34cpaid	+34.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x96f4…8081backed Olympique de Marseille	71c	60$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.6	132	48.5%64 W · 68 L	-3.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9adf…3f2fbacked Olympique de Marseille	71c	60$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.6	119	49.6%59 W · 60 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6afd…5cb1backed Olympique de Marseille	71c	60$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.6	114	52.6%60 W · 54 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea2e…d695backed Olympique de Marseille	71c	60$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.6	114	52.6%60 W · 54 L	+2.1wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb95e…c6d6backed Olympique de Marseille	71c	59.99$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.6	122	49.2%60 W · 62 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8da3…9f2cbacked Liverpool FC	20c	56.07$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.86	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.7wins	+0.24per pick	43cpaid	+121.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Liverpool FC	24c	55.75$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.37	434	27.4%119 W · 315 L	-6.7wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x55c6…30f4backed Liverpool FC	38c	53.08$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.08	3	100%3 W · 0 L	+1.4wins	+0.45per pick	55cpaid	+94.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6474…7ab8backed Liverpool FC	29c	51.72$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.72	30	36.7%11 W · 19 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Liverpool FC	41c	48.78$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.78	67	35.8%24 W · 43 L	+3.1wins	+0.05per pick	31cpaid	+39.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Olympique de Marseille	75c	47$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.45	217	45.6%99 W · 118 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Liverpool FC	47c	44.7$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.89	424	38%161 W · 263 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-16.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfee4…d386backed Olympique de Marseille	74c	44.55$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.03	131	49.6%65 W · 66 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc8f…3782backed Liverpool FC	29c	41.71$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.73	68	17.6%12 W · 56 L	-8.3wins	-0.12per pick	30cpaid	-47.4%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x75fd…9a86backed Liverpool FC	26c	41.5$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.71	22	45.5%10 W · 12 L	+0.9wins	+0.04per pick	41cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e66…8cf9backed Liverpool FC	29c	40.45$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.72	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+1.2wins	+0.59per pick	41cpaid	+166.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe601…c728backed Olympique de Marseille	71c	39$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.69	138	53.6%74 W · 64 L	+4.3wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Liverpool FC	27c	37.91$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.69	1,511	40.2%608 W · 903 L	-6.7wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-16%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa870…2cd1backed Olympique de Marseille	74c	37.53$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.77	88	68.2%60 W · 28 L	-7.2wins	-0.08per pick	76cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x70b1…73b2backed Olympique de Marseille	74c	33.57$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.84	47	55.3%26 W · 21 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	+15.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdc86…7e77backed Olympique de Marseille	74c	28.01$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.73	116	50%58 W · 58 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0040…9eb8backed Olympique de Marseille	73c	27.34$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	107	60.7%65 W · 42 L	-2.0wins	-0.02per pick	63cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x92e6…8222backed Olympique de Marseille	74c	27.03$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	21	61.9%13 W · 8 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	66cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed Olympique de Marseille	76c	25.49$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.37	27	48.1%13 W · 14 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Olympique de Marseille	73c	25.45$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.58	382	53.9%206 W · 176 L	+21.7wins	+0.06per pick	48cpaid	+15.8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd8d4…3691backed Olympique de Marseille	79c	25.32$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	90	58.9%53 W · 37 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	58cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84f6…2e01backed Olympique de Marseille	73c	22.53$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.45	33	57.6%19 W · 14 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	58cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x52d6…7fdbbacked Olympique de Marseille	60c	18.2$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.60per pick	60cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaedd…ad5bbacked Olympique de Marseille	73c	13.73$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.02	52	57.7%30 W · 22 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	60cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Liverpool FC (-1.5)this page
Olympique de Marseille vs. Liverpool FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
Olympique de Marseille vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 1.5Over won
Olympique de Marseille vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 2.5Over won
Olympique de Marseille vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 3.5Under won
Olympique de Marseille vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 4.5Under won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Liverpool FC (-1.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event