Olympique de Marseille vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 3.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x20e629e7b6d936fd61dadc5119defc48a244a38b3252ab8fc5f799b71a781474

Rebuilt 13 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Jan 21, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $137,268
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $140,580

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $137,268 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Champions League
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x3333…15bdbacked Over	43c	52,500$22,346 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22,346.35	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	-2.7wins	-0.18per pick	45cpaid	-48.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Under	57c	24,829$14,156 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10,673.8	338	51.5%174 W · 164 L	-8.8wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over	32c	10,685$3,402 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,402.33	1,994	43.9%875 W · 1,119 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8e68…d99bbacked Under	60c	10,244$6,144 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,100	131	51.1%67 W · 64 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2cdb…4d30backed Under	60c	10,000$6,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,000	16	43.8%7 W · 9 L	-1.4wins	-0.09per pick	53cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under	59c	9,331$5,475 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,855.88	1,511	40.2%608 W · 903 L	-6.7wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-16%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Under	58c	7,328$4,250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,077.58	29	51.7%15 W · 14 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a5f…4b52backed Under	75c	7,299$5,474 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,824.79	13	69.2%9 W · 4 L	-0.7wins	-0.06per pick	75cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Over	40c	5,500$2,200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,200	387	48.3%187 W · 200 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Over	40c	5,000$2,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,000	64	51.6%33 W · 31 L	-2.0wins	-0.03per pick	55cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Over	40c	4,320$1,734 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,734.43	380	43.9%167 W · 213 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6bb8…a6fabacked Under	75c	2,475$1,865 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$610.23	24	75%18 W · 6 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	74cpaid	+2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e16…a795backed Under	60c	1,667$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$666.67	47	59.6%28 W · 19 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	58cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70da…4367backed Over	40c	1,345$538 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$538	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Under	59c	1,077$637 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$439.96	582	48.8%284 W · 298 L	+2.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under	58c	890.2$521 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$369.49	597	41.7%249 W · 348 L	-18.3wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a42…2a7ebacked Over	39c	859.95$338 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$338	21	23.8%5 W · 16 L	-2.8wins	-0.13per pick	37cpaid	-55.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Under	77c	815.2$627 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$188.01	601	36.9%222 W · 379 L	-28.7wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-26.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Over	40c	601$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240.4	161	44.1%71 W · 90 L	-13.8wins	-0.09per pick	53cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb53c…eb0cbacked Under	61c	599.97$366 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$233.99	39	46.2%18 W · 21 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc210…39fcbacked Under	61c	599.97$366 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$233.99	94	45.7%43 W · 51 L	-3.4wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x90a5…9dccbacked Over	28c	572$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160.16	68	52.9%36 W · 32 L	+3.9wins	+0.06per pick	47cpaid	+20.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Under	59c	517.99$306 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$212.38	206	44.7%92 W · 114 L	-7.3wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x61a3…b1e5backed Over	11c	472.73$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	18	27.8%5 W · 13 L	-0.9wins	-0.05per pick	33cpaid	+4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Under	58c	424.63$246 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$178.34	53	34%18 W · 35 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	35cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5773…ac11backed Under	58c	400$232 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$168	146	45.2%66 W · 80 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	+2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1244…c851backed Over	37c	334.5$124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123.77	122	49.2%60 W · 62 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6593…9d0ebacked Under	60c	333.33$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$133.33	20	55%11 W · 9 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	55cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2221…ec1bbacked Over	41c	329.27$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-0.4wins	-0.05per pick	43cpaid	-22.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb12…f057backed Over	37c	300$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111	111	52.3%58 W · 53 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfee4…d386backed Over	40c	256.22$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.49	131	49.6%65 W · 66 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43de…d169backed Under	61c	254.1$155 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$99.1	17	76.5%13 W · 4 L	+4.0wins	+0.24per pick	53cpaid	+46.4%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x0052…4d9ebacked Over	19c	230$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.1	58	72.4%42 W · 16 L	+10.9wins	+0.19per pick	54cpaid	+39%equal weight	65+0.13 edge/pick
0x9154…8f2dbacked Over	41c	210$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.1	46	37%17 W · 29 L	+1.9wins	+0.04per pick	33cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc16f…0f4fbacked Over	37c	200$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74	84	54.8%46 W · 38 L	+3.5wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+9.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed Under	62c	200$124 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$76	256	59.8%153 W · 103 L	+10.4wins	+0.04per pick	56cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed Over	40c	168.2$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.28	159	38.4%61 W · 98 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc71d…3f27backed Under	61c	163.93$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$63.93	10	50%5 W · 5 L	-1.4wins	-0.14per pick	64cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe4bd…06d4backed Over	31c	162.5$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	16	25%4 W · 12 L	-3.6wins	-0.22per pick	47cpaid	-50.6%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over	18c	155$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.24	291	42.3%123 W · 168 L	-8.1wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x728a…a75cbacked Under	60c	150$90 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60	33	48.5%16 W · 17 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0ee5…96c2backed Over	37c	147.56$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.6	142	47.2%67 W · 75 L	-3.8wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1831…6c99backed Under	60c	147$88 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.8	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+1.1wins	+0.14per pick	48cpaid	+33.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Over	16c	141.35$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.91	383	43.1%165 W · 218 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7ad7…c097backed Over	40c	130$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	24	45.8%11 W · 13 L	+3.2wins	+0.13per pick	33cpaid	+47.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xff79…a52abacked Over	39c	128.21$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	206	55.3%114 W · 92 L	+14.6wins	+0.07per pick	48cpaid	+18.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5124…91bbbacked Under	57c	128$73 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55.04	41	39%16 W · 25 L	-1.8wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8104…3128backed Under	60c	112.94$68 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.18	54	55.6%30 W · 24 L	+2.2wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a89…196fbacked Under	62c	110.94$69 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.16	13	69.2%9 W · 4 L	+1.7wins	+0.13per pick	56cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1941…c47fbacked Over	37c	100$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37	119	47.1%56 W · 63 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3bcf…402abacked Over	20c	100$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	52	25%13 W · 39 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59cf…71dabacked Under	78c	100$78 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.05per pick	67cpaid	-13%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7fa9…5c8ebacked Under	63c	93.05$59 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.43	23	30.4%7 W · 16 L	+1.0wins	+0.04per pick	26cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7951…bb41backed Over	36c	83$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.88	57	45.6%26 W · 31 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xfa15…95e3backed Over	19c	77.79$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.54	31	48.4%15 W · 16 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1db3…ada1backed Under	59c	76.99$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.57	106	48.1%51 W · 55 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+12.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2b2d…379dbacked Over	40c	75$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	36	38.9%14 W · 22 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	36cpaid	+25.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e91…3e2abacked Under	60c	73.27$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.31	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.15per pick	51cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb821…5cddbacked Under	61c	60.3$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.52	26	50%13 W · 13 L	-3.3wins	-0.13per pick	63cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf99a…5487backed Over	37c	60$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.2	114	49.1%56 W · 58 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Over	30c	57.22$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.12	424	38%161 W · 263 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-16.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x284e…ddb2backed Over	24c	53.99$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.89	44	50%22 W · 22 L	+3.4wins	+0.08per pick	42cpaid	+15.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa632…4c96backed Over	40c	50$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	31	32.3%10 W · 21 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	34cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4215…f03abacked Over	41c	48$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.66	82	52.4%43 W · 39 L	+5.4wins	+0.07per pick	46cpaid	+16.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6768…692dbacked Over	39c	45.64$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.8	69	52.2%36 W · 33 L	+4.2wins	+0.06per pick	46cpaid	+17%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x77f3…f487backed Under	61c	40.98$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.98	12	66.7%8 W · 4 L	+2.2wins	+0.18per pick	49cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6079…81c6backed Over	39c	38.46$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	100	49%49 W · 51 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4924…64a4backed Over	40c	37.5$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.7wins	-0.43per pick	43cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc758…8574backed Over	41c	36.59$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	44	27.3%12 W · 32 L	-7.4wins	-0.17per pick	44cpaid	-51.3%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0xb259…2988backed Under	77c	34.36$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.9	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.16per pick	66cpaid	-35.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over	42c	34$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.38	116	53.4%62 W · 54 L	+5.4wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc688…5987backed Over	40c	34$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.6	39	35.9%14 W · 25 L	-4.1wins	-0.10per pick	46cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdc30…8780backed Over	39c	33.99$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.26	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.09per pick	59cpaid	-29.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ace…07c7backed Under	61c	32.79$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.79	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-2.1wins	-0.29per pick	58cpaid	-51.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd8d4…3691backed Under	65c	30.77$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.77	90	58.9%53 W · 37 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	58cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb676…48c7backed Over	40c	25$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-0.6wins	-0.06per pick	36cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16da…4b6cbacked Over	40c	25$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	56cpaid	-18.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Olympique de Marseille vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 3.5this page
Olympique de Marseille vs. Liverpool FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
Olympique de Marseille vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 1.5Over won
Olympique de Marseille vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 2.5Over won
Olympique de Marseille vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Spread: Liverpool FC (-1.5)Liverpool FC won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Olympique de Marseille vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 3.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event