Champions League · resolved market
Olympique de Marseille vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe2747842e554143b8eb0906a35351858fea83bd34f0a44f42098aeb448b9ef86
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,121
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,872
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,121 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x881b…9893backed Over | 16c | 9,451$1,541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,541.06 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -45%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…f72fbacked Under | 78c | 6,135$4,785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,349.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 20c | 5,384$1,102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,102.26 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa94f…1643backed Over | 22c | 3,386$745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$745 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…c279backed Over | 22c | 2,750$605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$605 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee4…9f0cbacked Under | 79c | 1,266$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.82 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 72cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed Over | 21c | 859$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.39 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 79c | 837.05$661 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.78 | 397 | 46.9%186 W · 211 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 78c | 747.35$584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.94 | 597 | 41.7%249 W · 348 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Over | 23c | 363$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.49 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 21c | 190.48$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 152 | 36.8%56 W · 96 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe61…4c28backed Over | 8c | 187.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -53%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f3…9b44backed Over | 24c | 166.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70b1…73b2backed Over | 20c | 122.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…b90bbacked Over | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6768…692dbacked Over | 21c | 84.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 69 | 52.2%36 W · 33 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +17%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad7…c097backed Over | 23c | 78.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…8476backed Over | 21c | 54.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc7…55f6backed Over | 22c | 51.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed Under | 80c | 34.72$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 88 | 68.2%60 W · 28 L | -7.2wins | -0.08per pick | 76cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Under | 79c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaccd…8be2backed Under | 80c | 15.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.11 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ac…1afdbacked Under | 80c | 12.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Olympique de Marseille vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Olympique de Marseille vs. Liverpool FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Olympique de Marseille vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Olympique de Marseille vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Olympique de Marseille vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Liverpool FC (-1.5)Liverpool FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.