Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. FC Metz end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x800f4e3918a4eda205818350e43a22ef036d18168f56be8e0635b23e7b931723
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $71,487
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $74,289
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,487 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe348…a303backed Yes | 21c | 9,999$2,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,099.87 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 13c | 4,184$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.89 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 18c | 3,319$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593.29 | 711 | 40.2%286 W · 425 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x447e…9710backed Yes | 19c | 3,240$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615.63 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 19c | 2,744$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.32 | 873 | 44.3%387 W · 486 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 19c | 2,272$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.6 | 525 | 50.1%263 W · 262 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb19f…dd0ebacked Yes | 29c | 1,726$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 14c | 660.99$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.85 | 180 | 46.7%84 W · 96 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Yes | 19c | 606.38$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.21 | 69 | 26.1%18 W · 51 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe10…95cbbacked Yes | 20c | 576.7$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 79c | 560.92$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.28 | 80 | 66.3%53 W · 27 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4b…7b6fbacked Yes | 20c | 543.8$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.76 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 19c | 420$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.8 | 350 | 37.7%132 W · 218 L | +14.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed No | 78c | 257.6$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.42 | 110 | 70%77 W · 33 L | +18.3wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 19c | 245.54$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.83 | 284 | 48.2%137 W · 147 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed Yes | 16c | 216.65$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a9…d58bbacked Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…d000backed Yes | 13c | 189.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 24c | 173.34$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 228 | 54.4%124 W · 104 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8104…3128backed Yes | 17c | 170.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6aa…8882backed Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | -3.7wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfed7…e405backed Yes | 20c | 149$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5151…4e57backed Yes | 20c | 145$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4597…272bbacked Yes | 20c | 145$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 79c | 130.09$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.76 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d78…7defbacked No | 80c | 123.45$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.69 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…43fabacked Yes | 13c | 119.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa64b…1e4bbacked Yes | 13c | 104.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 56cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf48c…e4dabacked Yes | 17c | 102$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +3.0wins | +0.37per pick | 38cpaid | +74.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5d97…7d3bbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc8…d266backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d2a…3daebacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d4…6297backed No | 75c | 96.17$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9544…790dbacked Yes | 21c | 90.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 109 | 42.2%46 W · 63 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed No | 79c | 85.25$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.9 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 59cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef1…d333backed Yes | 14c | 76.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 76c | 75.45$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.11 | 263 | 46.4%122 W · 141 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed No | 79c | 74.86$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 98 | 58.2%57 W · 41 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc519…348abacked No | 78c | 55$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x045c…6f90backed Yes | 21c | 54.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0685…2b0cbacked Yes | 27c | 51.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -59%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefef…94b8backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x205b…d66abacked No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 10 | 100%10 W · 0 L | +3.6wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 79c | 19.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.09 | 57 | 78.9%45 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…e149backed No | 80c | 17.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.51 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. FC Metz end in a draw?this page
- Will FC Metz win on 2026-01-18?No won
- Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-01-18?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.