Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will FC Metz win on 2026-01-18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcb8ad70100788966bd7f265d27995d16b94132e5a8ec7017b18fffe3d1f56f5f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $89,147
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $88,766
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $89,147 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 12c | 30,792$3,695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,694.63 | 356 | 50.6%180 W · 176 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87c0…6660backed Yes | 0c | 7,010$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 13c | 4,100$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553 | 105 | 21.9%23 W · 82 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df9…e49ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,985$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.58 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Yes | 12c | 1,500$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 173 | 29.5%51 W · 122 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61d0…6934backed Yes | 5c | 1,491$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.37 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 4c | 1,365$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.23 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 3c | 1,166$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.02 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6b…075fbacked Yes | 14c | 697.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0685…2b0cbacked Yes | 3c | 659.83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -59%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac1a…813ebacked Yes | 11c | 614.27$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.57 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Yes | 13c | 597.97$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.87 | 69 | 26.1%18 W · 51 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa62d…92e0backed Yes | 13c | 554.33$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 61 | 19.7%12 W · 49 L | -6.8wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -52%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 6c | 379.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 53 | 22.6%12 W · 41 L | -4.8wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -58%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 16c | 357.19$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.58 | 231 | 53.2%123 W · 108 L | +16.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4f…2a61backed Yes | 12c | 340$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef1…d333backed Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…8aeabacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 130 | 16.2%21 W · 109 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfed7…e405backed Yes | 14c | 149.36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Yes | 12c | 119.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf99d…f867backed Yes | 13c | 107.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 77c | 107.04$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 260 | 40.4%105 W · 155 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed Yes | 10c | 98.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1c…dc02backed Yes | 12c | 91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9544…790dbacked Yes | 16c | 87.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 109 | 42.2%46 W · 63 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b83…af97backed Yes | 13c | 86.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Metz win on 2026-01-18?this page
- Will RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. FC Metz end in a draw?No won
- Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-01-18?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.