TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Vitalityof FURIA, Vitality
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$676,813
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$761,736

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $676,813 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 511 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8eaf…1a93backed FURIA0c94,623$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.762850%14 W · 14 L+2.9wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+48.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked Vitality71c61,730$43,878 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,851.6676657.8%443 W · 323 L+3.4wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3aa…1485backed FURIA28c22,549$6,314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,313.795848.3%28 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc05…013abacked Vitality63c22,516$14,109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,406.914971.4%35 W · 14 L+5.4wins+0.11per pick60cpaid+13.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed FURIA25c20,504$5,187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,187.3832425.3%82 W · 242 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid+10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked FURIA25c17,453$4,353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,353.273,09648.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L+135.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5bbe…c65dbacked FURIA1c14,650$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.5113416.4%22 W · 112 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick14cpaid+13.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x99e4…e4c4backed FURIA28c13,976$3,855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,855.4822941.9%96 W · 133 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde1f…d634backed FURIA40c12,443$4,975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,975.435248.1%25 W · 27 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36f2…4ca4backed FURIA66c11,192$7,439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,439.253470.6%24 W · 10 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick64cpaid+10.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcdfb…980cbacked Vitality57c10,760$6,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,579.9932548.3%157 W · 168 L-8.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x25ac…3e47backed Vitality70c9,866$6,939 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,926.388564.7%55 W · 30 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+4.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e67…e2e6backed Vitality70c9,211$6,438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,773.714766%31 W · 16 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xea79…a9ccbacked Vitality70c9,147$6,426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,721.0814954.4%81 W · 68 L-6.5wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-6.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2924…0f31backed FURIA33c8,615$2,804 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,804.2749646.6%231 W · 265 L+1.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid-17.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbb3…76a9backed FURIA26c8,535$2,256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,255.9939248.7%191 W · 201 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-12.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed FURIA43c8,274$3,551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,551.3782143%353 W · 468 L+21.6wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked FURIA27c7,505$1,993 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,992.562,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01e6…e7e0backed Vitality73c7,406$5,416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,989.4317861.2%109 W · 69 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3b63…4acdbacked FURIA29c6,810$1,975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,974.913952.5%73 W · 66 L+9.5wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+17.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked FURIA28c6,012$1,672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,672.141,06049%519 W · 541 L+37.6wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked FURIA28c5,959$1,672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,671.881,61945.5%737 W · 882 L+31.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed FURIA28c5,886$1,668 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,668.589546.8%419 W · 476 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-15.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d11…99cabacked FURIA41c5,252$2,155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,154.712748.1%13 W · 14 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6277…5a3fbacked FURIA29c5,111$1,482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,482.0663541.9%266 W · 369 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed FURIA29c5,068$1,459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,458.685946.1%396 W · 463 L-1.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab35…60f6backed FURIA0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105534.5%19 W · 36 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-22.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaa6c…a9b3backed FURIA29c4,949$1,435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,435.141,17854.5%642 W · 536 L-36.7wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x66e5…d3c7backed FURIA62c4,756$2,969 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,968.9923354.9%128 W · 105 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3bae…885abacked Vitality72c4,377$3,166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,210.8927658%160 W · 116 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf5e…4189backed Vitality45c4,243$1,892 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,351.0733452.1%174 W · 160 L+10.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked Vitality73c4,132$3,016 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,115.6325655.5%142 W · 114 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67ac…edf1backed Vitality56c3,823$2,122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,700.8812454%67 W · 57 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xebe7…ddf5backed Vitality60c3,767$2,244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,522.7634156.6%193 W · 148 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked FURIA22c3,738$830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$829.82,32851.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L+92.3wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked FURIA35c3,634$1,284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,284.171,51357.2%865 W · 648 L+65.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf67d…c986backed FURIA29c3,565$1,034 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,033.9911133.3%37 W · 74 L-5.5wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-25.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed Vitality57c3,565$2,043 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,521.8450254.2%272 W · 230 L-11.2wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe02…be9dbacked Vitality69c3,301$2,293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,007.5231253.5%167 W · 145 L+14.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+13.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8120…54c9backed FURIA43c3,092$1,332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,331.920838%79 W · 129 L-10.4wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd752…85d4backed Vitality55c3,000$1,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,349.9936837.5%138 W · 230 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c1b…f0f9backed FURIA35c2,900$1,021 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,021.121747.1%8 W · 9 L+2.8wins+0.16per pick31cpaid+89.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked FURIA44c2,835$1,247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,246.837,99050.4%4,029 W · 3,961 L+180.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6dd…40cebacked Vitality72c2,731$1,966 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$764.713778.4%29 W · 8 L+6.3wins+0.17per pick61cpaid+34.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xcdca…66ebbacked Vitality67c2,655$1,780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$874.8928443.7%124 W · 160 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-12.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x53f2…5343backed FURIA29c2,641$766 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$765.921442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-21%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf2a…5ae1backed FURIA29c2,582$749 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$748.6912955%71 W · 58 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f4d…0d5ebacked Vitality38c2,523$963 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,559.72774.1%20 W · 7 L+3.6wins+0.13per pick61cpaid+27.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8f93…bffabacked Vitality69c2,517$1,749 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$767.7778963.8%503 W · 286 L-2.5wins0.00per pick64cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bdd…1b11backed FURIA28c2,512$703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$703.4422045.5%100 W · 120 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbdd0…c5aebacked FURIA0c2,507$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.04924.3%4 W · 88 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ab6…078ebacked FURIA29c2,476$718 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$718.0523952.3%125 W · 114 L+14.6wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x634a…6de3backed Vitality72c2,458$1,770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$688.2442751.5%220 W · 207 L-12.8wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked Vitality72c2,394$1,724 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$670.3765351.9%339 W · 314 L+10.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77a3…0e3fbacked Vitality43c2,261$966 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,295.2626045%117 W · 143 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x151e…58debacked Vitality72c2,055$1,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$575.4513765%89 W · 48 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+4.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x802b…7d57backed FURIA29c2,047$594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$593.598032.5%26 W · 54 L-6.6wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-31.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x69bf…0c5dbacked FURIA64c2,015$1,293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,292.9217148%82 W · 89 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3763…345fbacked FURIA29c1,981$574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$574.4453545%241 W · 294 L-11.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed Vitality67c1,960$1,313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$646.9345859%270 W · 188 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9ca…6a8bbacked FURIA29c1,936$561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561.4575545.6%344 W · 411 L-21.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa97f…a818backed FURIA29c1,911$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$549.6414847.3%70 W · 78 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed FURIA37c1,901$709 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$708.54,03848.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L-23.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c2d…dd1ebacked FURIA36c1,819$659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65940070.8%283 W · 117 L+39.1wins+0.10per pick61cpaid+14.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x43b1…5eabbacked FURIA28c1,800$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed FURIA28c1,700$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48433232.2%107 W · 225 L-0.8wins0.00per pick32cpaid+8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4042…0bdabacked FURIA29c1,651$479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$478.718250%91 W · 91 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8c14…d8fbbacked FURIA65c1,628$1,062 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,061.5717357.2%99 W · 74 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4e5…d034backed FURIA33c1,530$505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504.9613044.6%58 W · 72 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf6fd…1128backed FURIA29c1,503$436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435.962050%10 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick56cpaid+12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7756…d00abacked FURIA29c1,500$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43512148.8%59 W · 62 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd11d…5656backed Vitality69c1,483$1,018 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$465.297561.3%46 W · 29 L+4.7wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+14.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked FURIA21c1,476$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.675,58047.2%2,632 W · 2,948 L+47.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f1f…aa39backed FURIA62c1,469$911 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$910.722761.7%140 W · 87 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x846c…0366backed Vitality68c1,447$982 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$465.5418963.5%120 W · 69 L+0.7wins0.00per pick63cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5c3…1f5fbacked Vitality70c1,442$1,015 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$426.918354.2%45 W · 38 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12d9…01bbbacked FURIA29c1,436$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$416.4761228.9%177 W · 435 L-9.2wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0785…81c3backed Vitality72c1,420$1,023 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$397.6515970.4%112 W · 47 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-0.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xecee…a577backed FURIA53c1,390$731 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$731.268226.8%22 W · 60 L-7.3wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-39.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa2e9…a86ebacked FURIA71c1,388$982 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$982.4819355.4%107 W · 86 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10e0…c736backed FURIA73c1,354$984 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$983.5714362.9%90 W · 53 L+11.2wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1f3f…5878backed FURIA29c1,340$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.712426.6%33 W · 91 L-10.9wins-0.09per pick35cpaid-24.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd507…a6ddbacked FURIA29c1,297$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.215843.1%25 W · 33 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-11.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed FURIA27c1,273$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.762,09241.6%871 W · 1,221 L-50.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x490a…1d4bbacked FURIA28c1,253$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.9329235.6%104 W · 188 L-11.0wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-15.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed FURIA29c1,235$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.841,10950.5%560 W · 549 L-3.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3234…8b1abacked FURIA51c1,231$624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$624.191643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-27.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf56c…fcbdbacked Vitality40c1,194$482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$712.1535749.9%178 W · 179 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2248…bc0ebacked Vitality59c1,169$684 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$484.362240.9%9 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-24.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1173…1d74backed FURIA43c1,124$483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.413348.5%16 W · 17 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5ea…d07fbacked Vitality55c1,082$596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$486.0213442.5%57 W · 77 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae35…5dd3backed FURIA2c1,035$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8723940.2%96 W · 143 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked FURIA22c1,002$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.723,94936.5%1,443 W · 2,506 L-201.4wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x54a6…7401backed FURIA28c1,000$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2804156.1%23 W · 18 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+17.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4c38…91b7backed FURIA18c999.98$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick31cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed FURIA50c999.09$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494.5878939.5%312 W · 477 L-3.9wins0.00per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8705…edbabacked FURIA28c997.75$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.3740140.6%163 W · 238 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid+8.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc51e…a146backed Vitality79c985.57$778 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.786764.2%43 W · 24 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick64cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb19f…dd0ebacked FURIA50c973.31$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484.954944.9%22 W · 27 L-4.5wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-22.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed FURIA35c961.36$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.0523245.3%105 W · 127 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+19.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.