TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Celtics vs. Hawks: O/U 225.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$42,560
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$43,181

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,560 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6ade…f5b0backed Over51c12,564$6,408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,407.931,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe34b…3b60backed Over51c9,422$4,805 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,805.141346.2%6 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Under51c9,000$4,590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,409.9466250.8%336 W · 326 L+15.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Over49c7,259$3,554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,554.473,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x61e8…b283backed Under49c4,825$2,364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,460.7514940.9%61 W · 88 L-11.6wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-16.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x6e70…f06fbacked Under49c4,282$2,098 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,183.76746.3%31 W · 36 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4435…0840backed Under49c4,101$2,009 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,091.4326648.5%129 W · 137 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4244…03a6backed Under49c4,020$1,970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,050.4218349.2%90 W · 93 L-0.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under49c2,842$1,392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,449.296547.7%31 W · 34 L+0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Over49c1,742$851 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$851.134,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x708a…a0d8backed Under49c1,727$846 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$880.664535.6%16 W · 29 L-6.1wins-0.13per pick49cpaid-27.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x91f7…4767backed Under52c1,536$798 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$737.3210651.9%55 W · 51 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Over51c1,300$663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6631,90148.7%925 W · 976 L+6.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb19f…dd0ebacked Under50c984.08$493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$491.587365.8%48 W · 25 L+8.4wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+24%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Over21c865.1$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.212,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Under65c677.77$443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.883,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9348…8cfbbacked Over15c602.19$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.4514243%61 W · 81 L-7.8wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-16.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0dad…4855backed Over52c492.51$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.118951.7%46 W · 43 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Under79c446.09$351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.121,38439.4%545 W · 839 L+4.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Over50c210.44$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.3562047.3%293 W · 327 L-7.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Over50c204.38$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.991,39946.4%649 W · 750 L-13.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Over49c200.94$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.461,15049.5%569 W · 581 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Under49c193.06$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.466,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ca4…aa92backed Over52c189.43$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.511157.7%64 W · 47 L+5.2wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Under77c133.05$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.8531345%141 W · 172 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-16.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d49…e00abacked Over38c131.49$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.561,53242.5%651 W · 881 L-17.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Under80c117.51$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.813,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe33d…9512backed Over49c111.91$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.8726450%132 W · 132 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d87…4e0dbacked Under51c108.35$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.0934247.7%163 W · 179 L-8.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0152…b455backed Under49c100.51$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.2666046.4%306 W · 354 L-21.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over47c99.38$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.21,11341.6%463 W · 650 L-10.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-17.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x755a…6da6backed Under50c98.59$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.3445542.4%193 W · 262 L-0.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under49c97.52$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.074,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Over43c95.57$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.12,46850.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under77c92.84$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.941,75848.7%856 W · 902 L+28.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8482…3f7abacked Over15c84.9$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3860049.8%299 W · 301 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Over51c80.72$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.171,27747.2%603 W · 674 L-3.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafaf…1635backed Over36c70.89$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.491,03647.6%493 W · 543 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d41…2e0abacked Under70c70.7$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.331656.3%9 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick64cpaid-11%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xae1c…3678backed Under49c68.81$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.0923840.8%97 W · 141 L-16.0wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-14.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa877…2e20backed Over52c51.22$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.6449852.6%262 W · 236 L+15.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x70fc…ab12backed Over49c39.01$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1122143.4%96 W · 125 L-12.5wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-11.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x46d3…2c20backed Over52c37.89$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.733251.2%170 W · 162 L-0.5wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f39…d603backed Over48c37.67$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1591746.9%430 W · 487 L-19.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed Under79c34.73$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.4436949.6%183 W · 186 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-11.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Under51c30.3$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.853,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba86…6831backed Under60c23.63$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.431392.3%12 W · 1 L+4.6wins+0.36per pick57cpaid+65.8%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xdb24…6f60backed Under63c19.95$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.434100%4 W · 0 L+2.1wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+141.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.