NBA · resolved market
Celtics vs. Hawks: O/U 224.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x25b8e948613b03d6760e37dada1d9f7bc852d545b61f244012cb8f1d6cb89542
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,632
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,621
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,632 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xacb2…b989backed Under | 49c | 10,000$4,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,099.99 | 492 | 44.3%218 W · 274 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 51c | 8,320$4,243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,243.03 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…0840backed Over | 51c | 5,157$2,630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,629.97 | 266 | 48.5%129 W · 137 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9b…945abacked Under | 49c | 5,000$2,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,550 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33dd…ef8abacked Over | 54c | 2,984$1,611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,611.38 | 139 | 54.7%76 W · 63 L | +7.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x001a…1fb9backed Over | 51c | 2,208$1,126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,126.28 | 316 | 43.4%137 W · 179 L | -18.0wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Under | 50c | 1,970$985 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$985 | 649 | 44.7%290 W · 359 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Under | 46c | 1,833$843 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$989.75 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Over | 50c | 1,381$691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690.73 | 1,556 | 52.8%822 W · 734 L | +40.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 49c | 900$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459 | 1,901 | 48.7%925 W · 976 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 48c | 597.95$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.32 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 51c | 554.9$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.9 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e70…f06fbacked Over | 51c | 514.14$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.21 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 50c | 408.65$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.33 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e9…6d8ebacked Under | 48c | 394.01$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.88 | 154 | 46.1%71 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd7…eac9backed Under | 49c | 394$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.94 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5fc…dbc6backed Under | 47c | 351.66$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.38 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 51c | 259.11$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.15 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 50c | 211.24$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.01 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Over | 52c | 205.12$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.44 | 1,277 | 47.2%603 W · 674 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…763bbacked Under | 49c | 202.02$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.03 | 337 | 48.1%162 W · 175 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9348…8cfbbacked Over | 50c | 200.04$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.02 | 142 | 43%61 W · 81 L | -7.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…5326backed Under | 46c | 200$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 686 | 45.5%312 W · 374 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 53c | 157.26$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.35 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Under | 47c | 150.71$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.88 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Over | 52c | 114.25$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.74 | 1,399 | 46.4%649 W · 750 L | -13.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 59c | 78.93$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.68 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 48c | 61.15$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.87 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Over | 51c | 50.24$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.62 | 498 | 52.6%262 W · 236 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Under | 46c | 45.51$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.57 | 554 | 44.4%246 W · 308 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Over | 45c | 45.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 600 | 49.8%299 W · 301 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 49c | 39.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa516…235cbacked Over | 52c | 39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x217f…9812backed Over | 53c | 37.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Over | 42c | 34.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 1,036 | 47.6%493 W · 543 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Under | 58c | 33.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.27 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9a9…7876backed Under | 47c | 33.14$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.56 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Over | 40c | 30.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Celtics vs. Hawks: O/U 224.5this page
- 1H Spread: Hawks (-0.5)Celtics won
- Celtics vs. HawksHawks won
- Celtics vs. Hawks: 1H O/U 114.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Hawks: 1H O/U 115.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Hawks: O/U 218.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Hawks: O/U 220.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Hawks: O/U 221.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Hawks: O/U 222.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Hawks: O/U 225.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Hawks: O/U 226.5Under won
- Derrick White: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Derrick White: Points O/U 17.5No won
- Derrick White: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Jalen Johnson: Points O/U 21.5No won
- Jaylen Brown: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- Jaylen Brown: Points O/U 27.5Yes won
- Jayson Tatum: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Jayson Tatum: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Jayson Tatum: Points O/U 23.5No won
- Jayson Tatum: Rebounds O/U 9.5No won
- Neemias Queta: Rebounds O/U 8.5No won
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker: Points O/U 17.5No won
- Onyeka Okongwu: Points O/U 11.5Yes won
- Spread: Celtics (-1.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Hawks (-2.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Hawks (-3.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Hawks (-4.5)Hawks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.