TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Timberwolves (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Lakersof Timberwolves, Lakers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,675,757

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,675,757 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 236 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x03e8…1697backed Timberwolves51c862,780$442,463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442,462.785154.9%28 W · 23 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Lakers48c500,000$240,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260,00066248.5%321 W · 341 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbddf…c684backed Lakers50c331,514$165,401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166,112.5472648.3%351 W · 375 L+30.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4924…3782backed Timberwolves52c245,672$127,584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127,584.0987451.5%450 W · 424 L+15.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Lakers48c147,875$70,980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76,895.012,36148.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Lakers49c133,461$64,845 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68,615.444,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e6b…d96dbacked Timberwolves51c122,804$62,630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62,629.861346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Timberwolves52c114,654$59,620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59,620.151,04651.1%534 W · 512 L-0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa710…23c4backed Lakers51c110,000$56,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53,900.0732653.1%173 W · 153 L+19.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+11.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x93ab…9723backed Lakers49c88,000$43,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44,879.9860351.4%310 W · 293 L+16.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf19d…276fbacked Timberwolves49c69,611$34,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34,109.5723147.6%110 W · 121 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Lakers49c40,000$19,596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,404.421,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Lakers48c34,202$16,417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,785.271,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x68ca…9f73backed Lakers52c19,560$10,154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,405.4632540.3%131 W · 194 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x20d6…3856backed Lakers48c18,789$9,019 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,770.139842.5%169 W · 229 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-0.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Lakers48c16,778$8,053 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,724.572,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked Timberwolves50c13,351$6,675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,675.4148352%251 W · 232 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e12…20e9backed Timberwolves49c10,204$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00029347.4%139 W · 154 L-5.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Lakers49c10,093$4,925 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,168.138,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc65c…ea39backed Lakers51c10,000$5,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,899.9817250.6%87 W · 85 L+0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24b3…a5a4backed Timberwolves51c9,742$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00011249.1%55 W · 57 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8cdc…b83fbacked Lakers48c9,560$4,589 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,971.4220948.8%102 W · 107 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Timberwolves51c8,541$4,322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,322.219,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5b7…7ffabacked Timberwolves50c7,920$3,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,9604535.6%16 W · 29 L-4.4wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-20.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Lakers48c7,455$3,601 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,853.736,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb19f…dd0ebacked Lakers48c5,976$2,868 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,107.37365.8%48 W · 25 L+8.4wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+24%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xfbf3…b218backed Lakers47c5,795$2,724 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,071.5629245.5%133 W · 159 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Lakers49c5,046$2,473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,573.461,04447.5%496 W · 548 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac0a…f89ebacked Lakers48c5,000$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,60038251%195 W · 187 L+8.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Lakers50c5,000$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,499.991,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8861…4c2ebacked Timberwolves50c4,990$2,495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,4953860.5%23 W · 15 L+3.6wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+18.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Timberwolves50c4,647$2,324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,324.452,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked Lakers50c4,430$2,215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,215.0865750.1%329 W · 328 L+10.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c74…4ef0backed Timberwolves48c4,167$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00018749.2%92 W · 95 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x001a…1fb9backed Timberwolves48c4,150$1,992 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,99231643.4%137 W · 179 L-18.0wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Lakers49c4,082$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,081.611,19448.8%583 W · 611 L-22.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Timberwolves50c4,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0001,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Timberwolves49c3,637$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,800.132,43549.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L+30.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed Lakers48c3,333$1,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,733.1614753.1%78 W · 69 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Lakers51c3,154$1,609 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,545.6887750.2%440 W · 437 L-19.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30a4…8441backed Lakers48c3,000$1,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,56032051.9%166 W · 154 L+10.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+11%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x605d…cec3backed Timberwolves51c2,550$1,301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,300.515450.6%78 W · 76 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Timberwolves48c2,500$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20069149.1%339 W · 352 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Lakers49c2,500$1,225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2751,66752.7%878 W · 789 L+45.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Timberwolves51c2,350$1,199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,198.582442.2%348 W · 476 L-3.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Lakers50c2,333$1,165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,168.3367252.7%354 W · 318 L+15.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc51a…a0d9backed Lakers49c2,195$1,076 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,119.4427455.5%152 W · 122 L+15.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+9.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Timberwolves49c2,036$1,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,002.214,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x19d8…1691backed Timberwolves51c2,000$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,02072241.4%299 W · 423 L+2.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00d5…ed84backed Timberwolves50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00017050%85 W · 85 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Timberwolves48c1,833$880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$879.632,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Timberwolves50c1,667$834 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$834.324,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1748…a816backed Timberwolves50c1,504$752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751.817344.5%77 W · 96 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Lakers48c1,458$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$758.162,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf668…5c69backed Timberwolves50c1,310$655 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$654.7736359.8%217 W · 146 L+23.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+14.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3ede…6c27backed Timberwolves49c1,180$578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$578.1245151.4%232 W · 219 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x69ca…9ef8backed Timberwolves51c1,176$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60028554.7%156 W · 129 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid+0.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Lakers48c1,032$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$536.6459347%279 W · 314 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe77b…f10abacked Lakers48c1,001$485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$516.1110953.2%58 W · 51 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x691a…d113backed Lakers50c932$466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$466.0654443%234 W · 310 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc5ac…2a18backed Timberwolves51c913.33$466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$465.817850%89 W · 89 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe414…c341backed Timberwolves48c895.85$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430.0181349.4%402 W · 411 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9510…16dfbacked Lakers50c855.98$428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$427.9930453.3%162 W · 142 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Timberwolves49c796$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.041,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2123…8d70backed Timberwolves48c750$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36017551.4%90 W · 85 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe393…f016backed Lakers48c750$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39014059.3%83 W · 57 L+8.7wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+8.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9385…2484backed Lakers49c732.14$359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$373.399352.7%49 W · 44 L+6.5wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+17.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Lakers50c685.82$341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$345.243,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Timberwolves53c676.38$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.4821243.4%92 W · 120 L+9.9wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf1ad…6979backed Lakers50c676.38$338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.257650%288 W · 288 L+1.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabde…d41fbacked Lakers50c675.73$338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.8841947.7%200 W · 219 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc00…79f8backed Timberwolves50c660$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.9215240.8%62 W · 90 L-12.1wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-19.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3b5f…7b99backed Lakers48c600$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31238242.9%164 W · 218 L-11.5wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Lakers50c600$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3002,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Timberwolves48c570.05$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.623,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa583…2928backed Timberwolves53c566.16$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3002737%10 W · 17 L-2.6wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-26.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa2e0…d084backed Timberwolves51c529.41$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27022447.8%107 W · 117 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Timberwolves51c508.16$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.591,56247.4%741 W · 821 L-6.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8cb…8f46backed Lakers50c500$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25014448.6%70 W · 74 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa33c…1b33backed Lakers48c499.97$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.0762844.9%282 W · 346 L-21.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc991…abd4backed Timberwolves50c467.09$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.5548751.7%252 W · 235 L-1.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e47…a9a9backed Timberwolves52c466.58$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.6234852.3%182 W · 166 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3100…9bc9backed Lakers47c448.65$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.218043.3%78 W · 102 L-9.4wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-16.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4a87…fb21backed Lakers47c444.9$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.962450%312 W · 312 L-2.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Lakers75c440$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.622,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa266…67f7backed Timberwolves49c414.34$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20316740.1%67 W · 100 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2571…a49abacked Timberwolves49c410.32$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.21944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Timberwolves51c396.36$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.1429748.1%143 W · 154 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9030…cf12backed Lakers51c392$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.0812046.7%56 W · 64 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x300b…e032backed Timberwolves51c391.24$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.5319045.8%87 W · 103 L-8.7wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-11.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x18ca…6413backed Timberwolves51c368.79$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1883638.9%14 W · 22 L-4.2wins-0.12per pick51cpaid-23.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2a67…ef6bbacked Lakers50c351.98$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.9926756.2%150 W · 117 L+12.6wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4112…5d9dbacked Lakers51c342.37$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.4423348.9%114 W · 119 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd947…9b61backed Lakers48c324.98$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.9928751.9%149 W · 138 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x47a6…69e0backed Timberwolves48c297$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.5638750.4%195 W · 192 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34f9…ebf6backed Lakers49c295.92$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.927460.8%45 W · 29 L+4.8wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x02a9…642dbacked Timberwolves50c294$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14718143.1%78 W · 103 L-12.3wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-12.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x459f…c1f5backed Timberwolves49c294$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.8112645.2%57 W · 69 L-5.7wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Timberwolves51c264$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.641,13948.3%550 W · 589 L+3.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94c4…2a41backed Lakers50c262.16$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.2922953.3%122 W · 107 L+5.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.