NBA · resolved market
LeBron James: Points O/U 18.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb22a83daf9c6a5001c1fbb6b6dc31a508faefd17978c9cd332bbabe1918b9c4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,301
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,439
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,301 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6dd9…bfe8backed No | 70c | 1,465$1,027 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.25 | 657 | 62.3%409 W · 248 L | +27.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b45…9723backed No | 67c | 993.51$666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.09 | 260 | 69.2%180 W · 80 L | +9.6wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32d7…029dbacked Yes | 29c | 767.26$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.05 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked No | 70c | 625.49$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.96 | 1,759 | 61.7%1,085 W · 674 L | +127.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x35a9…cc63backed Yes | 32c | 507.25$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.21 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x266c…60f0backed Yes | 29c | 501.24$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 70c | 434.56$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.62 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf08d…9faebacked Yes | 32c | 418.96$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 74c | 381.54$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.12 | 212 | 43.4%92 W · 120 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x901a…6d69backed Yes | 33c | 331.61$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.55 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc006…3c94backed Yes | 32c | 312.65$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe702…563fbacked Yes | 31c | 290.32$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x043f…ca25backed No | 68c | 250$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27cb…66e6backed Yes | 28c | 168.3$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.26 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54a9…c541backed Yes | 31c | 168.1$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…bfbabacked Yes | 30c | 164.81$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c5…27a8backed Yes | 34c | 147.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16ef…3792backed Yes | 25c | 104.35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4792…d1c8backed Yes | 31c | 100.81$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.43 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fae…0be6backed Yes | 31c | 95.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 970 | 49.5%480 W · 490 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44bb…82a3backed Yes | 34c | 73.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf53…1720backed Yes | 25c | 66.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31c9…5992backed Yes | 25c | 65.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked No | 70c | 61.02$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 920 | 58%534 W · 386 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2c…9374backed Yes | 31c | 58.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed No | 70c | 56$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 952 | 60.2%573 W · 379 L | +37.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa528…2499backed No | 70c | 51.58$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.63 | 831 | 58.1%483 W · 348 L | +18.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 69c | 41.51$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 1,554 | 37.3%579 W · 975 L | -48.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked No | 70c | 39.9$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 880 | 57.5%506 W · 374 L | +34.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200c…555bbacked Yes | 34c | 30.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc991…abd4backed No | 79c | 25.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 487 | 51.7%252 W · 235 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 70c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 328 | 66.5%218 W · 110 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 67c | 19.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- LeBron James: Points O/U 18.5this page
- 1H Spread: Timberwolves (-0.5)Lakers won
- Anthony Edwards: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 29.5No won
- Austin Reaves: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Austin Reaves: Points O/U 20.5Yes won
- Deandre Ayton: Points O/U 8.5Yes won
- Deandre Ayton: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Julius Randle: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- LeBron James: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- LeBron James: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Luka Dončić: Points O/U 31.5No won
- Luka Dončić: Rebounds O/U 7.5Yes won
- Luke Kennard: Points O/U 8.5Yes won
- Marcus Smart: Points O/U 7.5Yes won
- Naz Reid: Points O/U 11.5Yes won
- Rudy Gobert: Rebounds O/U 11.5Yes won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-1.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-2.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-3.5)Lakers won
- Timberwolves vs. LakersLakers won
- Timberwolves vs. Lakers: O/U 228.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Lakers: O/U 229.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Lakers: O/U 230.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Lakers: O/U 231.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Lakers: O/U 232.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Lakers: O/U 233.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Lakers: O/U 234.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.