NBA · resolved market
Timberwolves vs. Lakers: O/U 229.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x006a70ee2db0b936113e6253b249b4f16306160ca5287d6ba0d887273d91e493
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $95,049
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $95,049 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Over | 50c | 20,000$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,999.96 | 1,124 | 48.6%546 W · 578 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 51c | 14,579$7,386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,192.88 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47a6…69e0backed Under | 50c | 13,400$6,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,700.34 | 387 | 50.4%195 W · 192 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x351e…de8abacked Under | 51c | 12,223$6,236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,986.5 | 377 | 47.5%179 W · 198 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Over | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 1,269 | 44.5%565 W · 704 L | +32.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c75…329abacked Over | 51c | 10,000$5,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,100 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91fd…1cdebacked Over | 49c | 10,000$4,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,900 | 773 | 48.5%375 W · 398 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Over | 49c | 10,000$4,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,899.99 | 1,556 | 52.8%822 W · 734 L | +40.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 48c | 7,463$3,618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,617.71 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac0a…f89ebacked Over | 49c | 5,278$2,583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,583.3 | 382 | 51%195 W · 187 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x001a…1fb9backed Under | 50c | 5,177$2,589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,588.72 | 316 | 43.4%137 W · 179 L | -18.0wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d13…92f3backed Under | 50c | 5,142$2,571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,571.15 | 702 | 46.4%326 W · 376 L | -20.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c16…4b37backed Under | 49c | 5,038$2,468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,569.24 | 293 | 52.6%154 W · 139 L | +14.1wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +26%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 50c | 4,229$2,135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,094.8 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fcb…78cfbacked Under | 51c | 3,716$1,895 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,820.72 | 216 | 53.7%116 W · 100 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc38…1e98backed Under | 50c | 3,233$1,616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,616.41 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Under | 49c | 3,076$1,519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,557.86 | 1,212 | 48.3%586 W · 626 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf19d…276fbacked Under | 51c | 2,786$1,410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,376.39 | 231 | 47.6%110 W · 121 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 49c | 2,100$1,031 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,030.99 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Over | 50c | 1,900$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950 | 649 | 44.7%290 W · 359 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0341…a679backed Under | 51c | 1,661$847 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$813.95 | 130 | 41.5%54 W · 76 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e00…eb46backed Under | 50c | 1,604$802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$801.99 | 363 | 51.2%186 W · 177 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd93b…cd48backed Under | 50c | 1,428$714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$714 | 179 | 53.1%95 W · 84 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…4856backed Under | 51c | 1,080$551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529.2 | 241 | 51%123 W · 118 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebba…383cbacked Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 240 | 50.8%122 W · 118 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5a9…45ffbacked Under | 51c | 933.5$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.5 | 238 | 50%119 W · 119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 50c | 867.25$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.63 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3f…44f1backed Under | 50c | 866$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433 | 254 | 52.8%134 W · 120 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe962…663abacked Over | 50c | 800$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.92 | 843 | 42.9%362 W · 481 L | -39.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa793…2bb7backed Under | 51c | 588.24$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.24 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +3.7wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Over | 51c | 586$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.86 | 212 | 43.4%92 W · 120 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2271…8170backed Over | 50c | 554.43$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.59 | 181 | 47%85 W · 96 L | -8.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Over | 51c | 454.92$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.01 | 112 | 42%47 W · 65 L | -13.8wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x71f8…280cbacked Over | 49c | 407.33$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.59 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa182…03fabacked Over | 50c | 400.1$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1762…c83ebacked Over | 30c | 327.86$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.36 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 70c | 327.86$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.36 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf35b…8043backed Over | 49c | 265.99$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.33 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 45cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c94…a43bbacked Under | 51c | 212$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.88 | 511 | 46.6%238 W · 273 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 51c | 196.16$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.12 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02a9…642dbacked Under | 52c | 182.79$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.04 | 181 | 43.1%78 W · 103 L | -12.3wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa64e…5d27backed Over | 50c | 156$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.52 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 51c | 123.2$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.37 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f1…d87bbacked Over | 49c | 115.28$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.89 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad31…1c1dbacked Over | 50c | 102.3$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.15 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…c20dbacked Over | 50c | 100.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 170 | 35.9%61 W · 109 L | -7.7wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…fa73backed Under | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 86 | 51.2%44 W · 42 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8031…67e0backed Over | 49c | 99.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 258 | 46.9%121 W · 137 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc991…abd4backed Under | 52c | 50.89$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.59 | 487 | 51.7%252 W · 235 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4790…2dd7backed Over | 50c | 50.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 141 | 50.4%71 W · 70 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 280 | 56.8%159 W · 121 L | +22.2wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c3…a6e8backed Over | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 49c | 47.78$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.37 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00b7…5b93backed Over | 50c | 42.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 256 | 51.6%132 W · 124 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x837d…86dfbacked Over | 25c | 40.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1566…98f7backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…5ca7backed Over | 50c | 37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8487…a68bbacked Over | 49c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b14…74bcbacked Over | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbd…b8d3backed Over | 50c | 24.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 672 | 48.8%328 W · 344 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ad…f840backed Over | 50c | 24.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +33%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75a6…c7a1backed Over | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.29per pick | 54cpaid | +52%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x640d…3168backed Over | 50c | 23.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x571c…0bb5backed Over | 50c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccb7…cdccbacked Over | 51c | 21.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1059…4cdbbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b5c…ab22backed Under | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Timberwolves vs. Lakers: O/U 229.5this page
- 1H Spread: Timberwolves (-0.5)Lakers won
- Anthony Edwards: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 29.5No won
- Austin Reaves: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Austin Reaves: Points O/U 20.5Yes won
- Deandre Ayton: Points O/U 8.5Yes won
- Deandre Ayton: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Julius Randle: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- LeBron James: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- LeBron James: Points O/U 18.5No won
- LeBron James: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Luka Dončić: Points O/U 31.5No won
- Luka Dončić: Rebounds O/U 7.5Yes won
- Luke Kennard: Points O/U 8.5Yes won
- Marcus Smart: Points O/U 7.5Yes won
- Naz Reid: Points O/U 11.5Yes won
- Rudy Gobert: Rebounds O/U 11.5Yes won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-1.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-2.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-3.5)Lakers won
- Timberwolves vs. LakersLakers won
- Timberwolves vs. Lakers: O/U 228.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Lakers: O/U 230.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Lakers: O/U 231.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Lakers: O/U 232.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Lakers: O/U 233.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Lakers: O/U 234.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.