TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Timberwolves vs. Lakers: O/U 231.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,729

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,729 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4df3…788fbacked Over47c1,384$644 inLost-$644.016,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4112…5d9dbacked Under56c1,028$572 inWon+$455.9823348.9%114 W · 119 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under53c878.18$469 inWon+$409.399,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed Under54c800$432 inWon+$36861740.7%251 W · 366 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x968f…5129backed Over46c629.87$290 inLost-$289.741030%3 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.19per pick49cpaid-39.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Over50c392.44$196 inLost-$196.223,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd6ce…7ec8backed Under55c237.19$130 inWon+$106.747153.5%38 W · 33 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Over45c237.19$107 inLost-$106.744,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15d5…ef7bbacked Over45c200.27$90 inLost-$901,19838.8%465 W · 733 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1fc…7cc1backed Over45c153.85$69 inLost-$68.9714471.5%103 W · 41 L+22.1wins+0.15per pick56cpaid+25%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xa8f1…d87bbacked Over44c117.26$52 inLost-$51.7115752.2%82 W · 75 L+5.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5fb4…90f3backed Under55c91.07$50 inWon+$41.079245.7%42 W · 50 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x14e4…eabbbacked Over47c53.2$25 inLost-$2593145.8%426 W · 505 L-25.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under59c53$31 inWon+$21.738,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Over41c53$22 inLost-$21.732,40043.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L-82.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5a2…0020backed Under57c44.05$25 inWon+$19.056848.5%33 W · 35 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0307…7ab8backed Under56c25.04$14 inWon+$11.0445452%236 W · 218 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.