NBA · resolved market
Timberwolves vs. Lakers: O/U 230.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7ed2c912f0a79615474ae9bdec852780144e8ad200915f2e8cbb420ba4054268
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,221
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,221 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 53c | 11,552$6,085 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,466.98 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Over | 47c | 10,000$4,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,699.99 | 1,556 | 52.8%822 W · 734 L | +40.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7595…50ffbacked Over | 22c | 8,265$1,826 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,825.71 | 111 | 56.8%63 W · 48 L | +8.9wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae8…c2a8backed Under | 52c | 3,518$1,829 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,688.56 | 240 | 53.8%129 W · 111 L | +12.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44a1…bd21backed Under | 50c | 1,990$995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$994.92 | 266 | 37.2%99 W · 167 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8fe…9f73backed Over | 48c | 1,568$753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$752.56 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa313…1f26backed Over | 14c | 1,314$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.75 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd239…2083backed Over | 48c | 1,260$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 155 | 43.2%67 W · 88 L | -7.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3242…0e0bbacked Over | 47c | 1,070$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.9 | 212 | 47.2%100 W · 112 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Over | 50c | 951$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.38 | 348 | 51.7%180 W · 168 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc9…58c7backed Over | 22c | 902.43$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1bf…f357backed Under | 53c | 896.3$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.3 | 169 | 53.3%90 W · 79 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 50c | 763.58$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.79 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 53c | 617.4$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.64 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 78c | 523.27$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.12 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Over | 52c | 462$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.24 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Under | 53c | 409.15$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.41 | 212 | 43.4%92 W · 120 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Under | 54c | 404.41$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.11 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 46c | 315$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.9 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a10…8b30backed Under | 56c | 300$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131 | 502 | 39%196 W · 306 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 52c | 268.07$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.35 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b1…242fbacked Over | 48c | 227.08$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 335 | 54.6%183 W · 152 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 603 | 46.4%280 W · 323 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under | 52c | 115.58$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.58 | 395 | 52.2%206 W · 189 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe962…663abacked Over | 46c | 111.45$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.27 | 843 | 42.9%362 W · 481 L | -39.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8031…67e0backed Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 258 | 46.9%121 W · 137 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80f…92febacked Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 555 | 33.5%186 W · 369 L | -15.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c10…829bbacked Over | 48c | 98.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.52 | 102 | 70.6%72 W · 30 L | +7.9wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0152…b455backed Under | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 660 | 46.4%306 W · 354 L | -21.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4112…5d9dbacked Over | 48c | 85.03$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.9 | 233 | 48.9%114 W · 119 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb9…a8b3backed Over | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 236 | 57.2%135 W · 101 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6e7…884cbacked Over | 47c | 68.69$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.22 | 163 | 38.7%63 W · 100 L | -11.4wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 43c | 64$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.52 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 69c | 53.14$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.49 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 280 | 56.8%159 W · 121 L | +22.2wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x00b7…5b93backed Over | 48c | 35.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 256 | 51.6%132 W · 124 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…b2c9backed Under | 53c | 31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 239 | 46.4%111 W · 128 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x793d…278fbacked Under | 53c | 30.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Under | 79c | 28.62$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 1,197 | 48.9%585 W · 612 L | -14.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbd…b8d3backed Over | 48c | 25.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 672 | 48.8%328 W · 344 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c17…0458backed Over | 52c | 23.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 171 | 53.2%91 W · 80 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed8…0e99backed Under | 70c | 22.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 456 | 53.5%244 W · 212 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf19b…1613backed Under | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 60 | 60%36 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Timberwolves vs. Lakers: O/U 230.5this page
- 1H Spread: Timberwolves (-0.5)Lakers won
- Anthony Edwards: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 29.5No won
- Austin Reaves: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Austin Reaves: Points O/U 20.5Yes won
- Deandre Ayton: Points O/U 8.5Yes won
- Deandre Ayton: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Julius Randle: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- LeBron James: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- LeBron James: Points O/U 18.5No won
- LeBron James: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Luka Dončić: Points O/U 31.5No won
- Luka Dončić: Rebounds O/U 7.5Yes won
- Luke Kennard: Points O/U 8.5Yes won
- Marcus Smart: Points O/U 7.5Yes won
- Naz Reid: Points O/U 11.5Yes won
- Rudy Gobert: Rebounds O/U 11.5Yes won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-1.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-2.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-3.5)Lakers won
- Timberwolves vs. LakersLakers won
- Timberwolves vs. Lakers: O/U 228.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Lakers: O/U 229.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Lakers: O/U 231.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Lakers: O/U 232.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Lakers: O/U 233.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Lakers: O/U 234.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.