NBA · resolved market
Timberwolves vs. Lakers: O/U 228.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c10bb69f2194fbfd8ccc2ae1c9df5138fb3614ddabd4d8e15332c2f82af0b75
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,408
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,408 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x351e…de8abacked Under | 50c | 4,286$2,143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,143 | 377 | 47.5%179 W · 198 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 50c | 3,551$1,791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,791.36 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fcb…78cfbacked Under | 49c | 3,500$1,715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,785 | 216 | 53.7%116 W · 100 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 50c | 2,002$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,001.4 | 475 | 42.3%201 W · 274 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0df0…3775backed Under | 48c | 1,999$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,039.48 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x42f1…bebdbacked Over | 51c | 1,961$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 50c | 1,719$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$859.5 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca5…73bcbacked Over | 52c | 1,250$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 404 | 51.5%208 W · 196 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea22…747abacked Over | 1c | 1,183$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 679 | 21.4%145 W · 534 L | +32.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51cb…0c9fbacked Over | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd6…6543backed Over | 52c | 888$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.76 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8de5…e8bbbacked Under | 80c | 788.79$631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.76 | 131 | 54.2%71 W · 60 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b43…fae9backed Over | 20c | 606.18$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 311 | 51.1%159 W · 152 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Over | 50c | 501.8$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.9 | 1,212 | 48.3%586 W · 626 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e80…787bbacked Over | 55c | 492.88$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.19 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 48c | 285.83$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.63 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc694…1171backed Over | 51c | 262$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.62 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.24per pick | 43cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2791…2346backed Over | 20c | 250.26$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2c…dac5backed Over | 53c | 200$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 423 | 48.5%205 W · 218 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 50c | 197.82$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.91 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18b2…9141backed Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e2…59a4backed Over | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Under | 47c | 120$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.6 | 224 | 53.1%119 W · 105 L | +29.4wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2c42…feefbacked Over | 52c | 111$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.72 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a0…2212backed Over | 20c | 100.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +19%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 649 | 44.7%290 W · 359 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 45c | 69.15$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.01 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 46c | 65.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5dd…5a9fbacked Over | 52c | 64.71$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.65 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Under | 50c | 61.88$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.94 | 557 | 51.9%289 W · 268 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7715…ada4backed Over | 51c | 59.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa5…a51abacked Over | 51c | 51.59$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.31 | 95 | 46.3%44 W · 51 L | -11.2wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9786…b15cbacked Over | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 76 | 52.6%40 W · 36 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…e9a6backed Over | 49c | 28.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc215…c9bcbacked Over | 53c | 28.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0b…4db0backed Over | 54c | 22.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 184 | 59.2%109 W · 75 L | +10.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa53…28debacked Over | 53c | 19.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Timberwolves vs. Lakers: O/U 228.5this page
- 1H Spread: Timberwolves (-0.5)Lakers won
- Anthony Edwards: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 29.5No won
- Austin Reaves: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Austin Reaves: Points O/U 20.5Yes won
- Deandre Ayton: Points O/U 8.5Yes won
- Deandre Ayton: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Julius Randle: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- LeBron James: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- LeBron James: Points O/U 18.5No won
- LeBron James: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Luka Dončić: Points O/U 31.5No won
- Luka Dončić: Rebounds O/U 7.5Yes won
- Luke Kennard: Points O/U 8.5Yes won
- Marcus Smart: Points O/U 7.5Yes won
- Naz Reid: Points O/U 11.5Yes won
- Rudy Gobert: Rebounds O/U 11.5Yes won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-1.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-2.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-3.5)Lakers won
- Timberwolves vs. LakersLakers won
- Timberwolves vs. Lakers: O/U 229.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Lakers: O/U 230.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Lakers: O/U 231.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Lakers: O/U 232.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Lakers: O/U 233.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Lakers: O/U 234.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.