TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Luka Dončić: Points O/U 31.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,252

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,252 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8de5…2b04backed Yes40c499.99$200 inLost-$2004367.4%29 W · 14 L+6.3wins+0.15per pick53cpaid+25.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1e29…9e66backed No78c353.03$276 inWon+$77.4450241.2%207 W · 295 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9252…6069backed No60c132.05$79 inWon+$52.821838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-29%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9901…6adbbacked Yes58c100.19$58 inLost-$5813843.5%60 W · 78 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed No47c60$28 inWon+$325,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb6f…f414backed No51c56.59$29 inWon+$27.966445.3%29 W · 35 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x61e9…0e4cbacked Yes54c50$27 inLost-$272161.9%13 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick57cpaid-7.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed No40c36.62$15 inWon+$21.972,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43eb…336dbacked No60c25$15 inWon+$105971.2%42 W · 17 L+10.7wins+0.18per pick53cpaid+35.8%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x914b…a886backed Yes54c25$14 inLost-$13.51040%4 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-21.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaaa1…176bbacked No46c25$12 inWon+$13.57048.6%34 W · 36 L-0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.