NBA · resolved market
Timberwolves vs. Lakers: O/U 234.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x43157b4301cb0e954b983a04539c71422a5604f84cda8b5d9e4dbd127bbec1d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,293
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,293 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1ea2…9ad4backed Under | 53c | 3,768$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,767.71 | 128 | 55.5%71 W · 57 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 47c | 2,246$1,062 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,062.19 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Over | 39c | 596.89$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.21 | 212 | 43.4%92 W · 120 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…a65fbacked Over | 48c | 500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 807 | 37.7%304 W · 503 L | -33.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6eb…5402backed Under | 60c | 500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 111 | 59.5%66 W · 45 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed Over | 48c | 492.15$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.23 | 227 | 52%118 W · 109 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 47c | 412.56$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.73 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 39c | 327.87$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.87 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x211d…3ab7backed Under | 61c | 327.87$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.87 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Over | 49c | 326.53$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 521 | 46.6%243 W · 278 L | -14.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 37c | 267.08$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.54 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4112…5d9dbacked Over | 45c | 253.19$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.11 | 233 | 48.9%114 W · 119 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked Over | 49c | 204.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 434 | 47.5%206 W · 228 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Over | 39c | 200.25$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.01 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Under | 61c | 156.92$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.2 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Under | 51c | 144.93$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.87 | 1,141 | 48%548 W · 593 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf332…3c89backed Under | 52c | 115.38$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.38 | 656 | 49.2%323 W · 333 L | +9.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a6…eaecbacked Over | 39c | 109.92$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.87 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Under | 52c | 99.98$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.99 | 633 | 53.1%336 W · 297 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 47c | 98.09$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.07 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7100…b346backed Under | 63c | 81.14$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.02 | 201 | 47.8%96 W · 105 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06c…6961backed Under | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 280 | 63.6%178 W · 102 L | +13.3wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23c8…f293backed Over | 36c | 79$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.44 | 286 | 43%123 W · 163 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 60c | 77.69$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.15 | 1,150 | 49.5%569 W · 581 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f1…d87bbacked Over | 46c | 62.22$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.58 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa6…7b62backed Under | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x350e…6539backed Under | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 144 | 50%72 W · 72 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 48c | 56.43$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.03 | 1,562 | 47.4%741 W · 821 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1fc…7cc1backed Under | 56c | 56.42$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 144 | 71.5%103 W · 41 L | +22.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +25%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2c…dac5backed Over | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 423 | 48.5%205 W · 218 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…e4a3backed Under | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.05 | 410 | 52%213 W · 197 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 47c | 47.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Over | 41c | 47.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 765 | 52.9%405 W · 360 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 65c | 45.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.85 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Over | 47c | 43.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 950 | 47.2%448 W · 502 L | -28.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96b0…b331backed Over | 49c | 40.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4c13backed Over | 48c | 34.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 209 | 49.3%103 W · 106 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Over | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 648 | 44.8%290 W · 358 L | -32.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5337…222bbacked Over | 48c | 31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 123 | 31.7%39 W · 84 L | -17.0wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Over | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1,554 | 37.3%579 W · 975 L | -48.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0df…2927backed Under | 52c | 27.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Over | 48c | 25.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 1,197 | 48.9%585 W · 612 L | -14.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bad…3b92backed Under | 52c | 24.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec15…9b0cbacked Under | 64c | 23.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 285 | 36.8%105 W · 180 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9055…a3b1backed Under | 52c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4224…19f5backed Under | 61c | 17.07$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Timberwolves vs. Lakers: O/U 234.5this page
- 1H Spread: Timberwolves (-0.5)Lakers won
- Anthony Edwards: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 29.5No won
- Austin Reaves: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Austin Reaves: Points O/U 20.5Yes won
- Deandre Ayton: Points O/U 8.5Yes won
- Deandre Ayton: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Julius Randle: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- LeBron James: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- LeBron James: Points O/U 18.5No won
- LeBron James: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Luka Dončić: Points O/U 31.5No won
- Luka Dončić: Rebounds O/U 7.5Yes won
- Luke Kennard: Points O/U 8.5Yes won
- Marcus Smart: Points O/U 7.5Yes won
- Naz Reid: Points O/U 11.5Yes won
- Rudy Gobert: Rebounds O/U 11.5Yes won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-1.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-2.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-3.5)Lakers won
- Timberwolves vs. LakersLakers won
- Timberwolves vs. Lakers: O/U 228.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Lakers: O/U 229.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Lakers: O/U 230.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Lakers: O/U 231.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Lakers: O/U 232.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Lakers: O/U 233.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.