NBA · resolved market
Timberwolves vs. Lakers: O/U 232.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x85fcdf3e4f74b127bc9b6d659c2ca0a05ae9c8603f574674492527e74d2b69be
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,966
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,966 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xea32…8870backed Over | 54c | 4,500$2,430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,429.99 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 50c | 3,166$1,598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,598.12 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x351e…de8abacked Under | 49c | 2,778$1,361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,416.8 | 377 | 47.5%179 W · 198 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3860…0efcbacked Under | 50c | 2,304$1,152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,152.13 | 129 | 50.4%65 W · 64 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 47c | 1,634$773 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$860.56 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 55c | 1,438$797 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640.89 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce26…8e06backed Over | 54c | 1,100$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594 | 910 | 50.9%463 W · 447 L | +11.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a80…8c5ebacked Over | 46c | 1,097$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.51 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97d3…8acebacked Under | 48c | 1,042$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.69 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -4.6wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 48c | 977.35$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.31 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac1a…f708backed Under | 48c | 833.33$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.33 | 194 | 45.4%88 W · 106 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae60…1f06backed Over | 45c | 813.52$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 47c | 555$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.53 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…c9e4backed Over | 54c | 471.35$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.25 | 238 | 50.4%120 W · 118 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…a65fbacked Over | 53c | 399.99$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.99 | 807 | 37.7%304 W · 503 L | -33.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed8…6b7fbacked Under | 57c | 340.87$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.57 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8df3…0fb5backed Under | 58c | 306.18$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.67 | 80 | 57.5%46 W · 34 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 46c | 200$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Over | 42c | 200$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4112…5d9dbacked Over | 49c | 190.21$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.34 | 233 | 48.9%114 W · 119 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5302…0a6fbacked Over | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 119 | 57.1%68 W · 51 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Under | 46c | 127.97$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.1 | 399 | 43.1%172 W · 227 L | -17.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x322f…65a5backed Under | 46c | 124.1$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.1 | 119 | 43.7%52 W · 67 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdfb…ed19backed Over | 43c | 116.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.06 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…cf21backed Over | 43c | 113.2$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.68 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc1e…8107backed Over | 43c | 111.63$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -4.1wins | -0.32per pick | 47cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 633 | 53.1%336 W · 297 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 56c | 91.15$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 1,150 | 49.5%569 W · 581 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd454…b47fbacked Under | 57c | 84.51$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.51 | 272 | 51.1%139 W · 133 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Under | 45c | 70.27$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.58 | 1,141 | 48%548 W · 593 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1fc…7cc1backed Under | 54c | 69.72$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.15 | 144 | 71.5%103 W · 41 L | +22.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +25%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Over | 45c | 43.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 765 | 52.9%405 W · 360 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0466…b3a5backed Under | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…358ebacked Over | 54c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 549 | 51.9%285 W · 264 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Under | 47c | 33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.49 | 464 | 47.8%222 W · 242 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe23…e72bbacked Over | 52c | 32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 119 | 46.2%55 W · 64 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Under | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 658 | 55.6%366 W · 292 L | +27.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Under | 48c | 28.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 1,197 | 48.9%585 W · 612 L | -14.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 46c | 27.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 49c | 26.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e01…7ef0backed Under | 58c | 25.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 203 | 50.2%102 W · 101 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0307…7ab8backed Under | 58c | 24.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 454 | 52%236 W · 218 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 53c | 24.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed Under | 52c | 22.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 533 | 39.6%211 W · 322 L | -39.9wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…d603backed Under | 46c | 21.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 917 | 46.9%430 W · 487 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Under | 46c | 21.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 970 | 49.5%480 W · 490 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Under | 57c | 18.39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Timberwolves vs. Lakers: O/U 232.5this page
- 1H Spread: Timberwolves (-0.5)Lakers won
- Anthony Edwards: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 29.5No won
- Austin Reaves: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Austin Reaves: Points O/U 20.5Yes won
- Deandre Ayton: Points O/U 8.5Yes won
- Deandre Ayton: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Julius Randle: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- LeBron James: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- LeBron James: Points O/U 18.5No won
- LeBron James: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Luka Dončić: Points O/U 31.5No won
- Luka Dončić: Rebounds O/U 7.5Yes won
- Luke Kennard: Points O/U 8.5Yes won
- Marcus Smart: Points O/U 7.5Yes won
- Naz Reid: Points O/U 11.5Yes won
- Rudy Gobert: Rebounds O/U 11.5Yes won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-1.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-2.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-3.5)Lakers won
- Timberwolves vs. LakersLakers won
- Timberwolves vs. Lakers: O/U 228.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Lakers: O/U 229.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Lakers: O/U 230.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Lakers: O/U 231.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Lakers: O/U 233.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Lakers: O/U 234.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.