TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xd5a6…eaec

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
43
Categories scored
9
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: South American Leagues, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category South American Leagues at 54 out of 100; worst CS2 at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Mar 15, 2026, EDT2050%10 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NBA — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Kings vs. Clippersbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.45
Brandin Podziemski: Assists O/U 4.5backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$101.98
Spread: Timberwolves (-6.5)backed Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT+108.8%+$36.2
Bulls vs. Lakers: O/U 239.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$82
Spread: Heat (-6.5)backed Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+92.7%+$44.3
76ers vs. Pistons: O/U 222.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT+92.7%+$43.82
Anthony Edwards: Assists O/U 3.5backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$81Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT+78.9%+$64.22
Spread: Timberwolves (-1.5)backed Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$42.41
Timberwolves vs. Lakers: O/U 234.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$42.87
Spread: Spurs (-3.5)backed Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$13.93
Celtics vs. Spurs: O/U 223.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+108.8%+$19.86
Grizzlies vs. 76ers: O/U 228.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$16.02
Spread: Knicks (-1.5)backed Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.46
Warriors vs. Jazz: 1H O/U 109.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$18.85
Knicks vs. Lakers: O/U 227.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$53.37
Warriors vs. Thunder: O/U 219.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EST-100%-$65.78
1H Spread: Nuggets (-2.5)backed Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$30.8
Hawks vs. Bucks: O/U 231.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST-100%-$64.27
Pelicans vs. Lakers: O/U 235.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+164.2%+$29.65
1H Spread: Lakers (-7.5)backed Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$149Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST+94.4%+$140.62
All 20 picks, newest first.
Premier Leaguelast resolved Aug 23, 2026, EDT1040%4 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-18%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Newcastle United FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 12.5 Total Cornersbacked Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$84.52
Manchester City FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$114Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$79.23
Hull City AFC vs. Manchester United FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT+212.5%+$53.08
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 1.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST-100%-$40.6
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$108Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$108.36
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$54
Arsenal FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$120
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+56.3%+$43.31
Manchester United FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$78
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-02-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+81.8%+$30.27
All 10 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Mar 14, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+20.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved Mar 14, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+103.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will CF Monterrey win on 2026-03-13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$30.79
Will Tigres de la UANL win on 2026-03-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+119%+$77.44
All 2 picks, newest first.
La Ligalast resolved Aug 23, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
La Liga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5)backed FC Barcelona · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$39.2
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5)backed FC Barcelona · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+104.1%+$26.02
All 2 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Mar 13, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
CS2 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 18, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.24
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Mar 10, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5)backed FC Barcelona · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.48
All 1 picks, newest first.
Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Mar 12, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-03-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$49
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.