TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Hamburger SV vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 3.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$73,084
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$78,144

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,084 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Under46c23,656$10,939 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,717.393,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x44c5…8d45backed Over52c7,679$3,993 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,993.0816045%72 W · 88 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+9.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8873…09fcbacked Over60c5,726$3,420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,4201241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.14per pick55cpaid-29.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4435…0840backed Over41c4,878$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0001947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8a1…2b76backed Over57c3,000$1,710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,709.991450%7 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick54cpaid+1.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc2fb…b9f0backed Over72c2,772$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0001163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick62cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79b6…612ebacked Over64c2,488$1,592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,592.32540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.17per pick57cpaid-33.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under44c2,419$1,058 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,360.992,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12b9…3ec2backed Over76c2,374$1,812 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,812.2710641.5%44 W · 62 L+6.2wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x56ff…81a0backed Over58c2,065$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,199.973966.7%26 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+12.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under41c2,000$820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,180.521,01344.5%451 W · 562 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over36c2,000$723 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$722.8533244.6%148 W · 184 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Under60c1,843$1,106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$737.2756547.8%270 W · 295 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2bdf…56f5backed Under45c1,671$752 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$919.113941%16 W · 23 L+0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid-12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xede1…54cbbacked Over58c1,420$825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$825475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+19.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x35d3…e506backed Over34c1,000$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3405246.2%24 W · 28 L+6.3wins+0.12per pick34cpaid+26.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Under45c993.78$448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$546.0519139.8%76 W · 115 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-29.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f07…0170backed Over24c926.99$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.881127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick20cpaid-14.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under59c664.12$391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.4753645.9%246 W · 290 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c16…4b37backed Under43c654.51$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$373.073268.8%22 W · 10 L+3.2wins+0.10per pick59cpaid+22.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Over37c589.83$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.227722.1%17 W · 60 L-5.5wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-11.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x274b…d408backed Over38c524.37$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.262250%11 W · 11 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+18%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Under35c483.97$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.3348658.6%285 W · 201 L+44.5wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+33%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7baf…99a7backed Over16c477.31$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.372817.9%5 W · 23 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-37.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Over52c382.56$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20016046.9%75 W · 85 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x72ab…30fcbacked Under60c369.14$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.14850%4 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+31%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd5a6…eaecbacked Over43c355.28$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+20.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2840…fb26backed Over40c345.4$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.16250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44ca…907cbacked Under43c332$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.242548%12 W · 13 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick44cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3486…49eebacked Over64c312.5$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20019943.2%86 W · 113 L-0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9db0…0f6abacked Over50c299.92$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.965356.6%30 W · 23 L+4.8wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+20%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x573c…c365backed Under51c294.12$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.12683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.30per pick53cpaid+56.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over50c286$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14311857.6%68 W · 50 L+15.7wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+31.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under58c285.83$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.0534144.6%152 W · 189 L-8.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf343…fba6backed Over42c239.93$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.771241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.13per pick55cpaid-20.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8b62…8fe5backed Under42c238.7$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x53eb…90ebbacked Under40c200$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1201414.3%2 W · 12 L-1.9wins-0.14per pick28cpaid-58.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x86f8…1655backed Under49c199.99$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1023458.8%20 W · 14 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Under31c166.34$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.2881732.8%268 W · 549 L-11.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea78…a74ebacked Under43c166$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.623345.5%15 W · 18 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e1a…d5a3backed Over19c162.88$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.662941.4%12 W · 17 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-18%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b47…3f2ebacked Over67c149.25$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x85a1…a640backed Under62c130.65$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.658959.6%53 W · 36 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf226…9c0fbacked Over58c127.81$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.13366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+99.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Under42c125.56$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.4230647.1%144 W · 162 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-11.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa710…f1ccbacked Over40c125$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5017930.2%54 W · 125 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca4a…338abacked Under40c118.2$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.92742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fa2…b8e3backed Under50c115.16$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.58666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick43cpaid+38.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over52c109.21$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.4111955.5%66 W · 53 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x37c4…359ebacked Over47c105.36$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.24273.8%31 W · 11 L+12.1wins+0.29per pick45cpaid+73%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0xa639…f5e8backed Over39c102.56$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4014758.5%86 W · 61 L+15.9wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+30.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xefef…cd06backed Over76c100$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$761776.5%13 W · 4 L+3.3wins+0.19per pick57cpaid+33.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9075…cfe8backed Over70c98.5$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.3725352.2%132 W · 121 L-0.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3454…333bbacked Over51c97.53$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.743342.4%14 W · 19 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+14.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38d5…865bbacked Under21c95.24$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.242100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+225.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcfe6…49f8backed Over40c90$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3622157%126 W · 95 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6366…8c41backed Under58c86.21$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.212100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+57.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8e6…d96bbacked Over56c85$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.68243.9%36 W · 46 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed Under50c84.95$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.1253140.7%216 W · 315 L-13.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Over56c84.24$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.481,30540.8%532 W · 773 L-42.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-21.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over25c84$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2126433.3%88 W · 176 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a25…bb6bbacked Under43c83$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.311942.1%8 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-19.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x04b4…8d0bbacked Under43c83$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.312050%10 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-4.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x67b1…63ecbacked Over52c81.91$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.59837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-24.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd03b…856cbacked Over38c80$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.47057.1%40 W · 30 L+5.2wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+17%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over55c80$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4434655.5%192 W · 154 L+9.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x50e9…5efebacked Over40c76.59$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.612843%55 W · 73 L-9.9wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-18.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbc6c…2bf7backed Over39c74.42$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.371361.5%8 W · 5 L+2.6wins+0.20per pick41cpaid+35.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbbaf…842ebacked Over58c72.41$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4220%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9df0…9a65backed Under67c70$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.4475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3999…c2bbbacked Under60c65$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262642.3%11 W · 15 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-19.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Under62c64.53$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.8476234.8%265 W · 497 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa87b…968bbacked Over29c62.2$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187825.6%20 W · 58 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-25.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4f2c…9d16backed Over55c58.18$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322245.5%10 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6c2…ba6ebacked Over53c58$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.725354.7%29 W · 24 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2baf…f66ebacked Under49c56.44$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.91475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+25.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0bb…049fbacked Under44c55.33$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.841353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d5c…1768backed Over38c50.88$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.343129%9 W · 22 L-7.2wins-0.23per pick52cpaid-47%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x4d58…2073backed Over38c50.65$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2514355.9%80 W · 63 L+9.7wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5aad…4d6ebacked Over50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254643.5%20 W · 26 L-3.6wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-14.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0cc5…ee5abacked Over50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255442.6%23 W · 31 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-8.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf57…ecc4backed Under50c49.07$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.569658.3%56 W · 40 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5565…4b3bbacked Under50c48.87$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.6320153.7%108 W · 93 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x44b8…a2d7backed Over42c47.62$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020540%82 W · 123 L-8.0wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-11.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f6d…bfc5backed Over38c47.37$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184641.3%19 W · 27 L-3.8wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-11.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf232…4fc6backed Under41c46$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.141080%8 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.18per pick62cpaid+21.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Under45c45.45$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2514642.5%62 W · 84 L-7.6wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-11.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcfb5…f5ecbacked Under49c41.2$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.013565.7%23 W · 12 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+11.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x33a7…e607backed Under61c40.98$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.986435.9%23 W · 41 L-7.6wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-22.1%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0xf8ba…068dbacked Under66c38.93$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.36560%3 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.22per pick38cpaid+22.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb1e2…66e2backed Over69c38.03$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.241752.9%9 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick62cpaid-7.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xedc6…05dfbacked Under50c37.26$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.61172.7%8 W · 3 L+3.0wins+0.27per pick46cpaid+62.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb18c…df51backed Over55c36.36$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010648.1%51 W · 55 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3637…8663backed Over42c35.71$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf158…aa4bbacked Under59c34.71$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.31861.1%11 W · 7 L+2.3wins+0.13per pick48cpaid+39.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xda35…b894backed Over59c33.9$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203461.8%21 W · 13 L+3.2wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+14%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x43e8…af56backed Over60c33.17$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205054%27 W · 23 L+3.8wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+19.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9599…1bf7backed Over39c30.77$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-47.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1b9…8714backed Over70c30$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212166.7%14 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4df2…8621backed Over55c30$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.51428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-25.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.