Bundesliga · resolved market
Spread: RB Leipzig (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2744314d2dbc6249da5d4c7e99a479d3d334e18203baf62f83869e20aae6c715
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hamburger SVof RB Leipzig, Hamburger SV
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,296
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,379
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,296 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Hamburger SV | 68c | 5,749$3,889 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,860.47 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed RB Leipzig | 39c | 4,603$1,781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,781.24 | 191 | 39.8%76 W · 115 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2053…1eedbacked RB Leipzig | 29c | 3,412$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Hamburger SV | 60c | 1,490$889 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.87 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Hamburger SV | 71c | 1,002$709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.98 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Hamburger SV | 71c | 536$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.44 | 341 | 44.6%152 W · 189 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked RB Leipzig | 21c | 509.54$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.33 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked RB Leipzig | 30c | 465.62$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.49 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed RB Leipzig | 30c | 362$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 77 | 22.1%17 W · 60 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c86…15c0backed Hamburger SV | 73c | 342.47$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.47 | 176 | 52.3%92 W · 84 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Hamburger SV | 70c | 300$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 358 | 56.4%202 W · 156 L | +19.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed Hamburger SV | 70c | 230$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +9.7wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c1…185cbacked RB Leipzig | 13c | 123.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce8…63febacked RB Leipzig | 26c | 115.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc383…a540backed Hamburger SV | 70c | 107.74$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.32 | 128 | 58.6%75 W · 53 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed RB Leipzig | 28c | 91.49$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked RB Leipzig | 31c | 89.82$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Hamburger SV | 68c | 88.08$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.17 | 96 | 58.3%56 W · 40 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Hamburger SV | 70c | 71.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.33 | 300 | 54%162 W · 138 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c93…0fb8backed Hamburger SV | 67c | 68.02$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.12 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa639…f5e8backed RB Leipzig | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 147 | 58.5%86 W · 61 L | +15.9wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…f218backed Hamburger SV | 74c | 61.11$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 68 | 61.8%42 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df2…8621backed RB Leipzig | 38c | 60.87$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8750…0841backed Hamburger SV | 72c | 59.03$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.53 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed RB Leipzig | 33c | 49.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 288 | 22.6%65 W · 223 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb775…36f5backed Hamburger SV | 71c | 40.85$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 63cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Hamburger SV | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 86 | 65.1%56 W · 30 L | +9.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…999fbacked RB Leipzig | 33c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 115 | 39.1%45 W · 70 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c74…0d16backed RB Leipzig | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.36per pick | 50cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa506…f93bbacked Hamburger SV | 64c | 24.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea05…6e25backed Hamburger SV | 72c | 18.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Hamburger SV | 71c | 16.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: RB Leipzig (-1.5)this page
- Hamburger SV vs. RB Leipzig: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Hamburger SV vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 1.5Over won
- Hamburger SV vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 2.5Over won
- Hamburger SV vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 3.5Under won
- Hamburger SV vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Hamburger SV (-1.5)RB Leipzig won
- Spread: Hamburger SV (-2.5)RB Leipzig won
- Spread: RB Leipzig (-2.5)Hamburger SV won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.