Bundesliga · resolved market
Hamburger SV vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x774f91e99670814b032409e77b70b1623c32dce258e146f86f585e1cb18d2848
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $231,655
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $237,040
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $231,655 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3333…15bdbacked Over | 24c | 187,260$44,942 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44,942.37 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.23per pick | 54cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Under | 76c | 138,930$105,587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33,343.3 | 94 | 55.3%52 W · 42 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 73c | 50,599$36,785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,814.17 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 27c | 2,689$716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$716.23 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Over | 21c | 2,182$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.42 | 191 | 39.8%76 W · 115 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf425…be71backed Over | 29c | 1,726$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.18 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +3.9wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6c67…a813backed Under | 80c | 1,426$1,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.11 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 75cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Over | 24c | 1,244$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.32 | 77 | 22.1%17 W · 60 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbff9…009dbacked Under | 74c | 1,001$744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.45 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x394c…158cbacked Under | 52c | 993.67$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 73c | 775.37$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.95 | 306 | 47.1%144 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 21c | 576.5$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.94 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35d3…e506backed Over | 16c | 558.47$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | +6.3wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdb58…a62ebacked Under | 75c | 518.96$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.74 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x357b…0b65backed Under | 53c | 396.23$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.23 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 78c | 319.99$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.4 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 69c | 309.17$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.74 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…67efbacked Over | 17c | 300$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 147 | 26.5%39 W · 108 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf158…aa4bbacked Over | 19c | 263.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88ad…9e5fbacked Over | 8c | 260$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd81c…0a81backed Under | 73c | 243.47$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.74 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 22c | 227.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 179 | 30.2%54 W · 125 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 33c | 221.01$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.1 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 17c | 214.83$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.52 | 215 | 40.9%88 W · 127 L | -15.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ae…a9dcbacked Under | 56c | 197.03$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.46 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…2935backed Under | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c74…0d16backed Over | 54c | 149.99$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.28 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.36per pick | 50cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 29c | 142.4$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 264 | 33.3%88 W · 176 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x392c…0bb4backed Over | 18c | 140.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.37 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c93…0fb8backed Over | 18c | 132.62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Over | 18c | 116.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 96 | 58.3%56 W · 40 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3036…15c2backed Over | 22c | 113.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 61c | 110.41$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.54 | 222 | 45.9%102 W · 120 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 45c | 103.64$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.25 | 119 | 55.5%66 W · 53 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5038…c8cebacked Under | 73c | 102.88$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.88 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 21c | 102.57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5565…4b3bbacked Under | 73c | 100.28$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.29 | 201 | 53.7%108 W · 93 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6483…750abacked Over | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 38cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbaf…842ebacked Over | 51c | 98.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43e8…af56backed Over | 18c | 95.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0759…3219backed Under | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x666f…9860backed Under | 78c | 79.5$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.49 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +111.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf232…4fc6backed Under | 62c | 70.24$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.69 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38d5…865bbacked Under | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +225.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Under | 55c | 67$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 97 | 42.3%41 W · 56 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a28…eff6backed Under | 62c | 64.52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 65cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d17…d4dcbacked Under | 56c | 62.79$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 22c | 61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbec…d33bbacked Over | 26c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…f5ecbacked Under | 76c | 59.77$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.34 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c84…b320backed Under | 73c | 58.36$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Under | 76c | 53.54$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.94 | 120 | 64.2%77 W · 43 L | +10.5wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa658…f93ebacked Under | 59c | 50.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.56 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 76c | 50.46$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x261c…d49dbacked Under | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 73cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7718…4c1bbacked Over | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 45c | 48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…82d7backed Under | 72c | 43.06$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 60 | 63.3%38 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f4…5107backed Under | 71c | 40.13$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3eca…8602backed Under | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb7…bfcebacked Under | 71c | 31.69$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b4…7ef9backed Under | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x542d…63aebacked Under | 61c | 29.34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b90…c258backed Under | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 42 | 73.8%31 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcb…de7bbacked Under | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2baf…f66ebacked Under | 58c | 20.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Under | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 210 | 51.4%108 W · 102 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacbc…ab1ebacked Under | 78c | 13.23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…f218backed Under | 78c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.86 | 68 | 61.8%42 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hamburger SV vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 4.5this page
- Hamburger SV vs. RB Leipzig: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Hamburger SV vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 1.5Over won
- Hamburger SV vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 2.5Over won
- Hamburger SV vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Hamburger SV (-1.5)RB Leipzig won
- Spread: Hamburger SV (-2.5)RB Leipzig won
- Spread: RB Leipzig (-1.5)Hamburger SV won
- Spread: RB Leipzig (-2.5)Hamburger SV won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.